It’s another super Saturday and we give out our free racing tip from Hanbury Racing who continues in fine form with 152 points in profit for May.
Sad Eyed Dylan – 6.00 Ffos Las – 2 Mile Handicap Chase – 14/1 Bet365 -1 point each way.
I put up Sad Eyed Dylan two starts ago when he looked really well handicapped over hurdles. He was backed from 20/1 into 13/2 and nicked a place for us.
He then switched to chases on his latest run and came a creditable 4th of 12.
That was only his 3rd chase race and his first for 2.5 years. He looked a bit novicey but still ran a sound race, eventually losing to Lermoos Legend by 8 lengths.
Today Lermoos Legend re-opposes and goes off a warm 2/1 favourite.
Sad Eyed Dylan is a 14/1 shot, but with the combination of him dropping 4lb and Lermoos Legend going up 4lb, makes him overall 8lb better off for the 8 length defeat.
When you consider 1lb equates to a length, then the 8lb exactly negates the losing distance. It’s therefore interesting from a value perspective that Sad Eyed Dylan can be backed at 14/1 compared to the favourite at 2/1.
Especially when you consider back in 2018 Sad Eyed Dylan’s postmarked 115 & 118 on his two previous attempts over chases and today, he runs off a lowly mark of 85.
Sad Eyed Dylan came back last winter from a long absence and took some runs to start to find some form so there is every chance he can take another step forward along his rehabilitation and win this at rewarding odds. Worst case he should be in the shake for the places.
I am therefore recommending 1 point each way at 14/1 with Bet365.
See my previous write up for more information.
Sad Eyed Dylan – 6.00 Taunton – 2 Mile Handicap – 20/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
The 8 year old Sad Eyed Dylan won a 3 mile point to point and placed three times over 2 mile hurdles and chases in the 2018 season off marks as high as 115. All his best runs were on good, fast ground.
He was off for almost two seasons with injury and has returned this year with four runs. These have been fairly moderate but can be excused coming back from injury.
Sad Eyed Dylan ran his best race, first run back on good to soft ground, but has then been rather bogged down on unsuitable soft going, which has then been exaggerated by a breathing issue.
This will be Sad Eyed Dylan’s first run back after a wind operation and he will encounter good to firm ground again for the first time.
His best runs under rules were over 2 miles where he forced the pace and a return to this trip after racing this season over 2m 4F is very much in his favour.
The icing on the cake is his handicap mark which has dropped from 115 to just 92 and is now ripe for exploitation.
With conditions and circumstances all in his favour the odds of 20/1 with Bet365 look really good and I recommend 1 point each way.