For me this is the most exhilarating race of the week. On TV you don’t truly appreciate the speed they travel and jump throughout this race; the jockeys really show their bravery by attacking the fences. If you ever get a chance in future years, I highly recommend you go, it’s a sight to behold!
The race is steeped in tradition and I must admit to getting emotional when Sprinter Scare regained his crown. Also when the dashing grey, One Man, strode up the hill to victory after twice failing to stay the 3m 2F when going off favourite for the Gold Cup.
Key Trends for the Queen Mother Chase 2021
Eight and nine year olds have by far the best record winning 11 of the last 20 running’s of the race. Horse in this age band are the favourite Chacun pour Soi, Notebook, First Flow and Cilaos Emery.
Older horses have a poor record, the last 11 year old to win was the exceptional Moscow Flyer, who regained his crown after falling the previous year. Prior to that you have to go back to 1977, when the 12 year Skymas won. The dual winner Altior is the 11 year old this year.
Only 4 favourites have won in the last 10 years, with 6 odds on shots being beaten since 2000.
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholl’s have a fine record with 6 wins apiece and they run Altior and reigning champion Politilogue, respectively.
The mighty Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, the closest he came was when Douvan went off a long odds on shot, he could change all that as he has the favourite, Chacun Pour Soi, and talented back up in Cilaos Emery.
Going Description for Champion Hurdle 2021
The Cheltenham going started on Tuesday as good to soft, soft in places. But by the times in the last two races yesterday it had already dried out somewhat and it was riding at good to soft.
Cheltenham does dry quickly, so by the time the Queen Mother goes off it will probably ride good to soft, good in places.
Pace in The Race
Politilogue, Put The Kettle On and Notebook like to get on with it and they will set a strong gallop. Politilogue stays 2m 4F so he will make it a proper test like last year and try to break the closers.
I’m sure the pace will be kept honest by Put The Kettle On, who will kick on if Politilogue tries to slow The Cheltenham going started on Tuesday as good to soft, soft in places. But by the times in the last two races it was basically good/soft. it down mid race.
There will be no hiding place in this race and jumping will be paramount. One bad mistake and thatwill probably be enough to lose you the race.
The Main Contenders:
Chacun Pour Soi – 9 year old – Form 1253/1/121-111 Price Evens.
The current favourite, and a worthy one. He missed last year’s race with a bruised foot on the day of the race, and then this year he has won all three races impressively, particularly at the Dublin Racing Festival where he trounced Put The Kettle On and Notebook on yielding ground.
Most of his form is on soft/heavy ground, but he did beat Defi Du Seuil at Punchestown Festival two years ago on quick ground, so he probably handles it Ok.
He has the best Irish form this year, his jumping is exceptional, but he hasn’t been round Cheltenham’s unique undulations or finished up the hill yet.
Nube Negra – 7 year old – Form: 12135/8B36/1122-1 – Price 8/1
This Spanish bred has been the surprise package this year, he went off at 20/1 when trouncing Altior. It was initially confirmed after the race by his Trainer, Dan Skelton, he liked a flat speed track and being fresh, but he was somewhat surprised by the manner of the win.
Since then the Skelton’s have been warming to the possibility of victory in this race and have become more confident.
He has progressed nicely over the last two years and did go off almost favourite in the 4 year old Fred Winter handicap hurdle off 135 but could only finish 3rd.
He finished second last year in a Grade 2 behind another of today’s rivals, Rouge Vif.
He is the youngest of these so is probably still improving and could turn out to be the best of the British contingent, but is he good enough to beat Chacun Pour Soi?
Politilogue – 10 year old – Form: 21U210/11214F/111241/14422/251-12 – Price 9/1
The reigning champion and a fantastic servant to connections. He won a substandard renewal last year when Chacun Pour Soi and Altior were late defectors and Defi Du Seuil under performed.
He is good as he won the Grade 1 Tingle Creek in November 2020, but that was another weak affair, and he sets a standard that should be beaten by at least a couple of the field.
If the race fall apart with Chacun Pour Soi under performing and Altior just too old, then he has a chance if nothing else improves past him. But he was beaten fair and square last time by First Flow, albeit on his preferred soft ground,
Put The Kettle On – 7 year Old Mare – Form 52153/31111211-13 Price 11/1
This admirable mare surprised most at last year’s Cheltenham Festival by winning the Arkle. The winners of that race have a great record when stepping into the Queen Mother.
She has the benefit of the mares 7lb allowance and loves Cheltenham, with three wins from 3 starts here.
She was beaten fair and square by Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Festival, but you don’t know if she was properly wound up for that, and she will certainly enjoy the faster going and return to Cheltenham.
Can’t be easily discounted.
First Flow – 9 year old – Form: 4/4111P/5/22132111-111 – Price 12/1
Has been progressing through handicaps for the past two seasons and hasn’t stopped improving, to the point where he moved into Grade 1 company for the first time in the Clarence House beating Politilogue convincingly by 7 lengths.
He deserves his place in the line-up, but his trainer has always said soft ground isn’t soft enough for him and he won’t get that here. He also prefers right handed tracks. He ran at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novice hurdle a couple of years ago and blew his chances jumping out to his right.
He might cope with the faster ground but needs to straighten up his jumping to have a chance here.
Rouge Vif – 7 year old – Form: 1/5212113/14213-134 – Price 22/1
Has been progressing nicely, finishing third in last year’s Arkle behind Put The Kettle On, on soft ground. He previously beat Nube Negra on good/soft ground in a novice Grade 2.
He returned this year with an uber impressive win in a Cheltenham handicap off 156, where he absolutely hosed up. That was on good ground and it has been well documented that he needs a fast surface to be at his best.
He subsequently ran down the field behind Politilogue in the Tingle Creek and Nube Negra, both of these runs were on unsuitable soft ground.
He seems to have the class to get involved in this if he can bounce back to form on the faster ground.
The Others
Sceaux Royal has been mixing chasing and hurdling well this year winning some nice Grade 2 pots along the way, he finished 3rd two years ago behind Altior and could run into a place.
Cilaos Emery finished 3rd in last year’s substandard Champion Hurdle having reverted back to hurdles after falling in a Grade 1 two mile chase at Leopardstown over Christmas 2019. He had previously looked impressive over chases in Grade 2’s. He has a good engine, but his jumping at this speed round Cheltenham’s undulations will really challenge him. He has won twice on good ground at Punchestown Festival in Grade 1 (hurdles and flat) so will handle conditions. He is a quirky character who tends to boil over around big crowds so he will benefit most from the quiet build up. If he jumps, he has a good chance of being a big threat. But it is a big if!
Greenateen is a good handicapper, it would be a surprise if he were good enough to win this.
Notebook went off favourite for last year’s Arkle but finished up behind put the Kettle on and Rouge Vif. He is a bit of a tearaway and can boil over, so the lack of crowds will help him. The problem is there hasn’t been crowds on course this year and he has been beaten convincingly twice by Chacun Pour Soi already.
Conclusion
Chacun Pour Soi has looked good this year and is the best of the Irish, but he has never run at Cheltenham. This might not be a problem as he jumps so well, but I have a big niggle that during his races he jumps his way to the lead, usually before the last, and looks like he will go away to win impressively, but then doesn’t seem to find as much as you think.
I have a concern that he might not get up Cheltenham’s hill effectively enough to stop the closers from taking him on the run in.
He is now odds on for this, and whilst I will applaud him if he were to win, as he could do it impressively, I’m not going to back him at the price.
I think the drying ground will have the biggest bearing in the race as it reduces the chances of Strong Flow and Politilogue, who probably won’t cope with the extra speed.
At the prices I like Rouge Vif and Cilaos Emery being 25/1 and 14/1 respectively. If Cilaos Emery jumps well he could be the one, but I just prefer Rouge Vif who is the most ground dependent horse in the field and will improve dramatically for the fast conditions, (like when beating Nube Negra last year) and he looked most impressive at Cheltenham earlier this season, and so his proven course form and larger price makes him the one for me.
I’m recommending:
1 point each way on Rouge Vif at 25/1 – Bet365.
Predicted finishing positions:
- Rouge Vif
- Chacun Pour Soi
- Nube Negra
