Champ – 3.05 #Gold Cup – Bet365 11/2 – 2 point win
Alboum Photo bids for a historic hattrick of Gold Cups. Best Mate was the last horse to achieve this rare feat and for his third victory he had the benefit of pretty weak opposition whereas Al Boum Photo looks to be facing some classier opponents.
I love Al Boum Photo as he helped us win the Tote Ten To Follow, indeed his win took us to the top. But when it comes to betting, I need to divorce myself from the emotion.
I think last year’s race was very weak, all the opposition have failed to progress this year, and in a slowly run race Al Boum almost got beat, I think a stronger pace would have seen a better victory for him. This year it should be a good pace, Frodon will go off quick for the first four furlongs but then try to slow it down mid race so he can quicken from the front as he did in the King George, but that tactic won’t work as whilst Native River might take a while to get up to top speed, he will certainly take it up and maintain a strong end to end gallop.
Stamina will then be the key attribute as well as sound jumping. Al Boum has the stamina, but he is only an adequate jumper and the slow pace last year prevented any major flaws arising. He did clout one hard last year and a faster pace might bring out some issues, particularly the downhill fences. Remember he did fall in the RSA chase three years ago and he might be due another major blunder.
I see four key rivals, these being Champ, A Plus Tard, Lord Pagaille and Santini. The rest from last year have either regressed or just not good enough.
Royale Pagaille is the novice in the field and has progressed rapidly this year through handicaps. He is most certainly running here this year rather than waiting for next year because his owner has Monkfish, who moves up into this division next year and is already antepost favourite for the 2022 Gold Cup. Royale Pagaille is quite hard to assess and certainly deserves his place, but I fear the fast ground will be against him.
Santini is the only horse you can take positively from last year’s race as he has no tactical speed and was not suited by the slow pace. His runs this year have been below par, but he does like Cheltenham and with the visor on he is bound to run his race. His lack of gears will probably still catch him out and I see him possibly running into a place, but not winning.
A Plus Tard is still only 7 years old and has matured into a proper Grade 1 performer. He loves the Cheltenham course and shows he is a worthy Gold Cup contender by winning a strongly run Saville’s chase at the Christmas Leopardstown meeting where he stayed on strongly to just get up from Kemboy. That showed he stays 3 miles well, but he still has to prove he gets 3m 2.5F. There have been many horses who could win over 3 miles, but failed over that extra 2.5F, especially with Cheltenham’s hill to climb. A Plus Tard was quick enough to beat Chacun Pour Soi over 2 miles last year and he will have to be special horse to combine that speed with sufficient stamina to go on and win a Gold Cup. One Man couldn’t do it, but if he can, then that makes him potentialyl more like a Kauto Star type.
The better ground will help him get the trip and he rates a massive danger to Al Boum Photo, I almost put him up, but I was swayed by the way Champ jumped last time out.
Champ won the RSA last year beating Minella Indo and Allaho. His late burst up the hill was truly extraordinary, but that was only part of the story as he did not jump well enough throughout the race to even be in contention. Barry Geraghty was nursing him into most fences, losing precious ground all the way round which meant he lost his position on the second circuit. He also steered him wide throughout and it was only his sheer class, determination, stamina, and ability to stay on up the hill that won him the race.
It’s been well documented Champ has been subsequently extensively schooled and received specialist jumping training. This seemed to pay dividends as he looked a different horse on his belated seasonal debut in the Game Spirit at Newbury over 2 miles against Sceau Royal. His jumping was his biggest asset and kept him in the race until he was outpaced on the run in.
Champ will have to be ridden differently over this trip, and like A Plus Tard, still has to conclusively prove he gets the 3 m 2F, but the noises close to the camp including Sir Tony McCoy think he has bundles of stamina.
It looks like being a fantastic race and the cream will rise to the top, I just think Champ has that extra bit of class over Al Boum and has a maturity edge (being 9 years old) over A Plus Tard who is only 7. I think A Plus Tard will quicken into the lead between the last two, but Champ will take him up the tun in!!
May the best horse win the #Goldcup!!
At 11/2 with Bet365 I’m recommending a 2 point win.
