Graphite – 3.10 Doncaster – The Lincoln – 1m Handicap – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
The Lincoln is the traditional big field handicap curtain raiser to the new flat season.
It’s a devilishly competitive handicap and you certainly need to be a more than a few pounds in front of the handicapper to win it.
That’s because the usual profile of the winner is an unexposed sort who goes onto to be group class.
The first four in the betting all fit this profile, with John Gosden’s Naqeeqy looking a very worthy favourite alongside Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin recruit, Eastern World. They both won cosily last timeout but are too short in the field at around 7/2 to represent any value.
It was a sad day this week when powerful Owner/Breeder Hamdan Al Maktoum died, but he leaves a massive legacy in the form of Shadwell Stud and with them winning so many big handicaps last year, it’s no surprise to see them having another highly progressive horse in Danyah at 9/1 in the betting.
He could just be the value angle at the head of the market, but the one I like at a price is Graphic.
Graphic is a classy ex-French Andre Fabre trained gelding who was owned by Godolphin. He was sold at a dispersal sale last autumn and has yet to run for T J Kent, the new trainer based at Newmarket.
Graphite is a 7 year old and is relatively lightly raced with just the 13 runs to date. He is already a dual Group 3 winner over a mile and has been placed multiple times at Group 2 & Group 3 level, postmarking a high of 113. He also ran a nose 2nd over a mile to The Revernant (subsequent winner of the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot last year) and gave him 2lb.
Nothing else in today’s field can boast such proven form and this will be a big drop in class for him today as he has never run in a handicap. He should be top weight in this, but he has been allocated just 100 which really gives him a chance. Especially when you consider todays favourites have achieved nowhere near this level, but are currently handicapped on 98, 99 & 100.
The one drawback is the 543 days he has been off the track, so his fitness and wellbeing must be taken on trust. However I feel his new Trainer would love a high profile winner so I’m expecting him to be sharp enough for his English debut to do himself justice.
Graphic is the massive value angle at 50/1 ,which means we can get 10/1 for a first five placing and huge upside if he can get his head in front.
I like this angle and therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
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