Our free tip today was given out to premium subscribers last night at juicy 40/1 odds and has been smashed into best priced 9/2!
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Pilgrims King – 4.10 Market Rasen – 2m NH Flat Race – 40/1 Paddy Power – 1 point each way.
The Trainer Peter Bowen has his string in fine fettle. He had two winners yesterday and in the last week 64% of his runners have run to form.
He runs Pilgrims King in this run of the mill National Hunt flat race. Pilgrims King made his debut in a NH flat race 47 days ago and he was strong in the market, being backed in from 20/1 to 17/2.
He travelled well in the race but weakened 2 furlongs out only losing by 11 lengths and postmarked 98 in the process.
It’s interesting that he returns here sporting a tongue tie which means he must have suffered a breathing problem that affected his debut run. We can therefore mark that performance up and can expect considerable improvement.
Today’s favourite is Mexican Bay, trained by Olly Murphy, who has a good record with his NH flat runners. Mexican Bay has also run once, finishing second and postmarked 104.
Considering there is only 6 points between the postmarks, and we can realistically expect a much improved performance from Pilgrims King it’s rather surprising that we can back our selection at a staggering 40/1 with Paddy Power compared to Mexican Bay’s 13/8.
Clearly there are other dangers in the race including the big power stable of Nicky Henderson, but he only has a 13% with his NH flat runners at Market Rasen, so I’m happy to take him on.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Paddy Power.
