Hi,
Please see below my three tips for Thursday:
Herculean – 2.10 Yarmouth – 1m Handicap – 40/1 Bet365 – 1.5 Points Each Way.
The 6 year old Herculean was originally bred and raced by Khalid Abdullah and ran in the famous Frankel colours. He won two novice events postmarking a high of 96.
He was lightly raced as a three and four year old but didn’t train on so was sold on.
He moved to the Stuart William’s yard in 2020, at a time when they were out of form, and he was stepped back to 7F and only showed glimpses of form.
Herculean then moved to Derek Shaw’s yard and he was kept at an inadequate 7F for his first 4 runs.
It was at this point I put Herculean in my tracker as it looked like connections were just getting his mark down as low as possible. I noted from previous trainer comments that Herculean was a big horse and needed a flat galloping track.
I then watched connections run him recently at Chester, the tightest, most unsuitable track in the Country, followed by his latest run at Chelmsford where he had run before, and connections had commented it was too tight for him!!
So, I’ve been waiting for the day when the Trainer finally runs him over a suitable track at a distance that will suit, and today looks the day. Yarmouth is a lovely flat track with a long 5F home straight that will enable Herculean get balanced and find his long galloping stride.
He runs over 1 mile, which suits him well (postmarked 94 in the past) and his preference is very much for fast ground which he gets with good to firm going.
Derek Shaw has removed the hood, which calms a horse down, and replaces it with first time cheekpieces which is a really positive sign as it will help wake up the horse and keep him focused on the job.
Now the stand out factor is his handicap mark, which has dropped from a high of 91 and now sits at just 57. He has been running this year in class 3 & 4 races, but today he drops down to a class 6 for the first time.
Herculean is definitely being lined up for a win and today will be his first proper opportunity at a track that suits him, and with so many factors going for him he has to be backed at 40/1 with Bet365.
Now he gets his conditions and being so well handicapped I am really strong on Herculean and recommend a raised stake of 1.5 points each way play at 40/1 with Bet365.
He is still value at 16/1.
Our Nancy – 5.35 Sligo – 2m 2F Handicap Hurdle – 28/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
The 5 year old mare, Our Nancy, started life in 3 year old juvenile hurdles and has been brought along slowly by connections.
She has progressed nicely with racing and as she strengthened up improved to win her first race as a 4 year old in a 2m 1.5F Handicap Hurdle (off a mark of 87 by 6 lengths). I’ve watched the race and she won decisively making headway round the final bend before quickening to the front and pulling away from her rivals. This performance can be marked up considerably as she made most of her headway 3 out by coming 8 wide round the field on a tight track.
Our Nancy then had a year off, so an injury must have kept her off the track. She is trained by a small Irish trainer and unsurprisingly he brought her back to the track in need of some runs.
Our Nancy returned in two quick maidens on the flat where she was tailed off only postmarked 9 & 18. She then went back over hurdles and running off 96, and being easy to back, she ran a promising race finishing 6th of 15.
She ran her latest race back on the flat just 4 days ago where she stepped her form right up postmarking 67, only losing by 9 lengths.
What makes Our Nancy really interesting today is that she won her race last year off a quick reappearance of 5 days. So the 4 day gap this time round has really grabbed my attention.
Now she is fit, well and flourishing I feel she can win today off a jumps mark of 96. Sligo’s right handed sharp track on good ground will suit her well and S O’Keefe, who won on her, is back on board.
At 28/1 with Bet365 she is good value and I recommend 1 point each way – 4 places.
She still looks value at 16/1.
Café Sydney – 2.00 Brighton – 1m 2F Handicap – 30/1 Paddy Power – 2 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 5 year old mare Café Sydney has been improving with her racing, winning 5 races off marks between 48 and 58. One of these wins was an easy victory at today’s quirky Brighton track.
She rattled up a hattrick on her last three runs at Lingfield over this winter and that signifies Café Sydney is very much on the upgrade. She is now getting to that age where mares really start maturing and strengthening up, so there is every chance there is more to come.
She had a nice break and returned to action in June where she ran down the field, but she came on for that run and finished a fair 6th of 10 last time out, only being beaten 3 lengths. Considering she was hampered and squeezed out when making her move 2 furlongs out we can very much upgrade that run. She postmarked 63 and that could easily have be reassessed at 65.
She returns to Brighton today off a mark of 62 and has the in form 7lb claimer Mollie Phillips on board who has been banging in multiple winners for her Trainer, Tony Carroll, who she represents here today.
Her 7lb claim could make all the difference as that nets Café Sydney’s mark down to 55. And considering she has postmark 67 that gives her every chance at a track she likes.
She does have two big rivals to overcome, course specialist Junoesque, goes for a quick fire double. But he looks exposed and under his penalty might struggle to follow up.
The biggest danger might come from the unexposed Roger Charlton favourite, Big Boy Bobby, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle. He ran second last time out and they reach for the cheekpieces for improvement. He could easily progress, but the Brighton track is a big unknown and he was a previous non-runner on good to form ground so might not let himself stride out on this downhill course.
Those two are 15/8 and 5/2 in the market, but we can get 30/1 with Paddy Power for Café Sydney and she looks the value play in this 7 runner event, where we get ¼ odds for a place.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 14/1.
