Hi,
Please see my two picks for tomorrow:
Little Gem – 3.50 Wolverhampton – 1m (0-50) Classified Stakes – 66/1 Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
This is a classified race only available for horses rated a maximum of 50. Horses carry level weights, adjusted only to weight for age allowances.
It’s the lowest grade of racing and horses rated 50, or closest to that mark have a distinct advantage over the rest of the field.
With Little Gem sitting off a mark of 50, it’s surprising to see her sit as the outsider in this field, especially when you dig into her form.
She has only run once at today’s Wolverhampton track and trip where she came a 1 length 4th off a mark of 52, postmarking 59 in the process. What makes this run look even better is the subsequent form of the three horses in front of her who have all gone on to win races. The winner Golden Acclaim is now 11lb higher, the second Kayfast Warrior is up a whooping 30lb (winning 5 races) and the third is up 10lb after winning his next start.
Little Gem clearly acts well on the track and tapeta surface but hasn’t raced there since and a return could help spark a revival in her form.
Little Gem looks like an all-weather specialist, She has run 7 times on synthetic tracks and in her handicap races has postmarked 59, 56, 49, 48, 44 & 41 which included a win at Southwell (fibresand) off a mark of 45. Theses runs were also at polytrack courses of Kempton and Chelmsford. Her best mark of 59 was the only time she ran on a tapeta surface at Wolverhampton (also over today’s trip).
Compare this to her turf starts where she has run 5 times postmarking just 14, 26, 16, 41 and 8!!
Her last two starts were after a change of stable to Alan Berry and both on turf. The latest being the postmark of 8. These runs are being seen by the market as a serious dip in form and help make her today’s 66/1 outsider.
However the market hasn’t factored in the return to all-weather, based upon this form she would be sitting as one of the market principals.
Ella McCain has shown she is a competent rider with over 30 winners at a 13% strike rate, so her 5lb is a real bonus.
If little Gem runs to her previous mark 59 then in all likelihood she will win this race, so with Ella’s 5lb claim she only really has to run to 54 which gives her every chance of victory.
Time and time again I see horses who just have a massive preference for the all-weather and bounce back to form when returning to their preferred surface and I’m hoping I have found another Little Gem here at huge odds of 66/1!!!
I’m recommending 1 point each way with Bet365, best odds guaranteed.
She is still value at 12/1.
Adaalady – 8.50 Chelmsford – 6F (0-50) Classified Stakes – 33/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Another (0-50) classified stakes and we have an interesting 3 year old in the field in Adaalady.
She has run just 5 times. Three of these in maidens where she was green and out for the experience, but still postmarked a high of 51 on the Kempton polytrack.
That 51 was on her debut over 6F and the two subsequent runs were over 5F where she was outpaced and not given a hard time.
On her handicap debut (off 54) Adaalady was stepped up to 7F and after being hampered at the start she strode out to track the leader. The throttle was definitely out for the first 4 furlongs and by the time she hit the final furlong her run petered out and she faded.
Her next, and latest start was back to 5 furlongs (off 50) where she was slowly away but stayed on well, doing all her best work in the final furlong losing by 4 lengths.
Today she steps up to 6 furlongs which should be ideal and returning to polytrack will also benefit Adaalady. So will the draw in stall 3.
In order to win today Adaalady will have to postmark around the 54 to 58 mark. This will need a life time best, but with only 5 runs todate Adaalady is still very unexposed, especially at 6F so the progression is very much within her compass.
It’s a real positive to have Luke Morris back in the saddle and the trainer is in form with a winner this week.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
She is still value at 20/1.
