Hi,
Please see my three tips for Tuesday’s racing, good luck!
Spirit Warning – 3.25 Epsom – 7F Handicap – 15/2 Bet365 – 2 point win.
Andrew Balding is a first class Trainer and when the Champion jockey Oisin Murphy is on board in mid-week action they have a terrific strike rate together.
They team up together with Spirit Warning who has run 9 times unsuccessfully this year but been ridden almost exclusively by amateur and apprentice jockeys.
Oisin takes over today now his mark has dropped from a high of 95 to just 64.
It’s Oisin’s record on the horse that takes my eye, having run 5 times finishing 22221, winning off a mark of 89 (the last time he rode him in 2019), with all those seconds being off handicap marks in the high 80’s.
Epsom’s quirky configuration holds no fears for Spirit Warning who has come second on the track (with Oisin on board) and the good ground will be perfect for him.
At 15/2 I was tempted to back him each way, but it’s just not my kind of bet. I always really want a double figure price to go each way. However I could not blame any of you for backing him each way to cover the place angle as his record of seconds does make that a tempting option.
I therefore recommend 2 point win with Bet365 at 15/2.
He still looks value at 5/1.
Titaneasy – 4.35 Epsom – 1m 2F Handicap – 40/1 Skybet – 4 places – 1 point each way.
The 6 year old Titaneasy is a big strong horse and even though he is a flat bred who would appreciate 1m -1m2F, you can see why he started life in National Hunt races.
Titaneasy ran with promise in 5 National Hunt flat races postmarking a high 96 and over hurdles twice. But the common theme of his demise was his tendency to take a keen hold and run too freely, burning himself out and fading late on over the 2 mile trips.
It was therefore no surprise to see him switched this year to a flat campaign where he reverted to 7F for two of his maidens and out ran his 200/1 odds on debut, being slowly away, but running on to finish a good 4th, postmarking 64.
His next two runs showed similar promise from slow starts and the handicapper has issued a fair mark of 62.
Titaneasy makes his flat handicap debut and connections have stepped him up to 1m 2F, which I feel is an ideal distance for the gelding and we can expect some improvement over this trip.
I like that the Trainer, John Bridger, won this race in 2015 and placed with the same horse a year later, and the fact that Titaneasy ran well round Lingfield suggests he will cope with the similar downhill left hand bend and undulations.
The very good apprentice Rhys Clutterback takes the ride and his 5lb claim nets Titaneasy’s mark down to 57 which gives him a good chance.
The market has completely underestimated the chances of Titaneasy and at 40/1 with Skybet he looks huge value in this 10 runner event and remarkably Skybet are also offering 4 places!! They must be bonkers!!
He still looks value at 14/1.
Third Estate – 7.00 Newton Abbott – 2m 1F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Boyles – 4 Places.
Third Estate was previously trained by Neil King who was starting to improve the horse with racing and won a summer 2 mile handicap hurdle off a mark of 102.
The gelding was rated 116 and progressing when unfortunately he suffered a tendon injury which kept him off the track for two years.
He has been nursed back to health by his new young Trainer, Joe Tickle, and returned to the track this year for 4 starts, two over chases and two over hurdles.
On the face of it Third Estate looks terribly out of form with his finishing positions being PUOP and the market has him chalked up quite rightly as a 50/1 outsider. But I feel his form is now going to change, primarily as his fitness and wellbeing is improving with racing.
Coming from a small trainer he wouldn’t have him anywhere fit enough on his first start and connections would just be hoping for the horse to enjoy himself and come back in one piece. Well that was mission accomplished.
The second start was a non-event as he fell at the first and Joe Tickle did absolutely the right thing bringing him back over hurdles for his third start where he showed a level of fitness improvement by completing the race, albeit almost 40 lengths adrift. That was also on soft ground which was against him.
On his latest start he ran an absolute blinder. This may sound a strange thing to say for a horse that was pulled up. But he went out in front and had a pace war with another horse, and they really stretched the field going 10 lengths clear.
Third Estate jumped and travelled lovely and coming into the home straight he looked to be travelling the best and was in the lead 2 furlongs out, only to blow up and get tired. I’m surprised the jockey pulled him up before the last, but that was probably just precautionary as he had such a good blow out.
That race was over 2m 4F and will have completed his fitness rehabilitation and set him up well for todays race. I love that the Trainer brings him back to 2 miles 1F as all his best form is over this shorter trip.
Furthermore he likes to race prominently and that’s exactly the type of horse who wins round the tight Newton Abbott track. Indeed Third Estate has twice finished second here and postmarked 97, 97 , 102 and 107.
He runs today off a reduced mark of 95 and has the services of promising apprentice, Tom Buckley, who claims 5lb that nets Third Estates mark down to an enticing 90. Tom has been banging in the winners this summer and improving his riding all the time. He has a 13% winning strike rate over hurdles (26 winners) and a highly impressive 33% place rate (89 from 272 rides) which tells me he can judge the pace well to achieve the best placing.
This all bodes well for Third Estates chances and I’m recommending we back him 1 point each way at 50/1 with Boylesports who offer 4 places in this 15 runner field.
He still looks value at 22/1.
