Hi,
Please see my three tips for Monday:
Kings Pavilion – 2.25 Musselburgh – 7F Handicap – 16/1 Bet365 – 1 point Each Way.
It’s soft ground at Ayr and we are firmly in the time of the season when horses that enjoy cut start to run better than they have earlier in the year. This certainly applies to the 8 year old Kings Pavilion who has won 7 times, with 5 of these being with soft in the description.
He has been admirably consistent and seems to have a clear ceiling to his winning ability as all 6 of his handicap wins have been between marks of 82 and 89.
Kings Pavilion changed stable this year to Les Eyres and has only run twice recently and it looks like they have eyed soft ground races at the back end of the season.
He has progressed with each run (on fast ground) and today makes his first start on soft ground running off a very favourable mark of 70.
With the very good PJ MacDonald on board he must have a solid chance and at 16/1 with Bet365 we get decent odds.
He still looks value at 10/1.
Joe Proud – 4.55 Yarmouth – 7F Handicap – 33/1 Bet365 – 1 point Each Way.
The stallion Sepoy has an interesting stat insofar that his progeny have a good record when being gelded.
So Joe Proud is worth second look now he has undergone the operation.
J R Jenkins isn’t one of the most prolific winning trainers, but he does get his fair share and Yarmouth is one of the tracks where he gets his winners, and at big prices.
Joe Proud is very lightly raced 3 year old having run just the five times. His runs haven’t been devoid of promise. On his third run where he made his seasonal reappearance after 7 months off the track, he showed his best form in a maiden at Lingfield over 7F on soft ground where he postmarked 66.
His runs tailed off after that and his coltish behaviour made him boil over, so the gelding operation was a wise move.
He reappears almost 3 months after the operation so have been given plenty of time to get over the op and I like the fact he runs off a break on soft ground that he performed his best run to date.
The handicapper has him on a mark of 61, so he looks well enough handicapped to be involved here and at 33/1 with Bet365 looks a good each way play,
He still looks value at 20/1.
Walkonby – 5.20 Musselburgh – 1m 1F Handicap – 50/1 Paddy Power – 5 Places- – 1 Point Each Way.
Walkonby is a winner of 4 of her 19 races with the wins all being around todays trip.
She has won off marks between 61 to 71 and has twice won with soft in the description.
Walkonby went hurdling last year and returned to the flat this summer and something was troubling her as she was pulled up on her first start and whilst her next race was Ok her further two starts were poor,
Connections gave her a summer break and she returns today fresh, and hopefully they have resolved the issues that were hindering her performances.
What is clear from Walkonby’s form is that she goes well fresh, including winning off a mark of 71 on good/soft ground.
This makes her interesting today and with good apprentice Aiden Brookes taking off 7lb this nets Walkonby’s handicap mark down to just 53 which gives her an excellent chance at the weights.
We can back her at massive odds of 50/1 with Paddy Power who also offer 5 places in this 14 runner field and that looks a great each way bet.
She is still value at 16/1.
