Hi,
Please see my three tips for Wednesday:
Seanjohnsilver – 1.45 Navan – 5.5F Handicap – 66/1 Boylesports – 5 Places BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
In these big field sprints you really need to be ahead of the handicapper to have any chance of success.
It looks like Teddy Boy is going for his hat trick bid after winning the race for the last two years and he has a fair chance as connections just seem to get him ready for this race and allow him to go off the boil for the remainder of the season.
Consequently his handicap is below his last years mark and I was very close to putting him up at 9/1. But instead I’m going to take a chance with Seanjohnsilver.
Last year Seanjohnsilver won at 150/1 in a 5F handicap off a mark of 53, it was a very decisive win which resulted in a 9lb rise.
He was competitive on his next few starts leading up to Christmas last year and then was off until a month ago. On his return to action he has run very poorly three times, being slowly away and finishing last on each occasion.
These poor runs are exactly the same to last years form leading up to his win.
Trying to work out why his form improved last year I think was down to two factors. The first being fitness, and the second was the jockey change.
Gary Carroll rode Seanjohnsilver for the first time when they won, and he stayed on the horse for the next couple of runs which were also decent. However when Gary Carroll wasn’t on the Seanjohnsilver he was trouble at the start, being slowly away, and his form tailed off.
It’s worth taking a chance on him today as we know he is well handicapped off 52 and most importantly Gary Carroll is back on board so there is every chance, we will see a better run. Particularly now he is fit (running just 6 days after his previous run), running off a 1lb lower mark than last year’s win, over a suitable trip, on the right going and from a good draw.
Seanjohnsilver sits in the market at 66/1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift out further, so I’m recommending we take a best odds guaranteed price and currently Boylesports are offering 66/1 with 5 places being offered.
I recommend 1 point each way with Boyles. He is still value at 40/1.
Military Hill – 5.15 Navan – 1m 6F Handicap – 50/1 Boyles BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point Each way.
The 8 year old Military Hill is a winner of 4 flat races and a 2m 5F novice hurdle. He has postmarked a high of 75 and won off marks between 52 and 69.
He is bred to appreciate a trip of between 1m and 1m 2F and his trainer certainly focussed on 1 mile for his three and four year old campaigns. Those high postmarks were over 1 mile, but as an older horse he lost his speed and his rating dropped from a high of 72 to low 50’s.
Military Hill was subsequently sent over 1m 2F successfully winning two races and ran well over 1m 4F.
He went hurdling as a 6 year old and won over 2m 5F and placed over 3 miles so his stamina started to prove itself, this makes me feel confident he will cope well with today’s flat trip of 1m 6F.
Unfortunately, Military Hill was injured and off the track for almost 600 days and only returned in July this year. He has been nursed back to fitness over three runs (one flat and two hurdle runs). His latest run over hurdles hinted he was beginning to find his form and fitness was improving.
Today Military Hill looks interesting as connections have reapplied a tongue and visor. In the past the visor has only been used in four races. These resulted in Military Hill finishing 2nd, 3rd and 4th all off a mark of 58 (in big fields). Today Military runs off just 47 so looks well handicapped and very capable of winning today.
We can back Military Hill at 50/1 with Boyles, who offer 5 places.
He is still value at 20/1.
Ruith Le Tu – 5.30 Kempton – 6F Handicap – 33/1 Boyles –4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
This is a 2 year old nursery so many of the runners are very unexposed. This includes my pick, Ruith Le Tu.
He has just run the 3 mandatory times to get his handicap mark, twice over 6F with the last run over 7F. He progressed with each run, particularly his last where he showed tactical speed to be held up behind the leaders in a good Newbury maiden, only to faded in the final furlong.
Ruith Le Tu was a little too keen in that last run and it seems connections are not wasting anytime waiting for natural improvement so had him gelded after his last run.
So he arrives today off the back of a gelding operation that that can help relax and focus a horse and at the same time cheekpieces have been applied.
It very much looks like connections are trying very hard to get an early victory for the horse and I’m willing to take that chance, especially now he has been dropped back to 6F and has a good draw in stall 6.
At 33/1 he looks a good each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way with Boyles who offer 4 places.
He is still value at 16/1.
