Hi,
Please see my three tips for Thursday:
Peggyclare – 3.50 Stratford – 2m 2F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
The 8 year old Peggyclare has arrived from Ireland after light campaigns.
She has only shown modest form in maiden hurdles and only been tried in 3 handicaps. Her runs haven’t been devoid of ability and has postmarked a high of 90, which equates to around 100 in UK terms.
The mare is now trained by the new promising trainer, Ben Lund, and I like how Peggyclare ran on her debut for the yard, going off in front and only fading in the home straight. That run will have blown the cobwebs away and she should be much straighter today.
She only runs off a UK mark of 79, so looks dangerously well handicapped and the tight Stratford track really suits front runners, so I’m hoping they are really positive with her.
The booking of Charlie Deutsch really takes the eye as he is brilliant from the front.
If Peggyclare can build on that first run, then at 50/1 with Bet365 she looks a great each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 16/1.
Blueberg – 3.40 Ffos Las – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 6/1 Bet365 – 2 point Win.
Was pulled into the stewards room three runs ago for lack of effort.
Looks like that was a combination of gaining a nice handicap mark and a wind issue.
Had the wind operation over the summer and came back with a promising recent seasonal opener, finishing 3rd over too shorter trip.
With that run under his belt and a step up in trip today looks like connections will be going for it.
At 6/1 he is not huge price, but he has been in my tracker for quite sometime and this looks like the right time to back him at fair odds.
He is still value at 9/2.
Subliminal – 1.03 Lingfield – 1m 2F Handicap – 33/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Subliminal loves Lingfield winning 6 races and placing a further 12 times. That figure rises when the going is standard (the forecast going) to 6 wins from 31 starts with 10 places. That’s over a 50% place rate.
His wins are all from mid draws so stall 6 looks perfect for him.
We also have the right jockey in the plate as Luke Morris is 5 wins and 5 places from just 15 starts.
From a handicap perspective Subliminal is on a fair mark of 62 which is Ok as his highest winning mark is 63.
On the negative side Subliminal has looked out of form. On his last three starts he has finished 8th of 10, 9th of 10 and 10th of 10. This is quite sobering but he was given a summer break and had more time off in that period than ever before so that tells me he had a lovely rest and lost his fitness.
It’s therefore no surprise it’s taken him these three runs to get fit. If I were the Trainer, I would have done the same as Subliminal is no world beater and needed to get a few pounds off his back.
Whilst he has finished down the field on each run his postmarks have been improving and his latest was 59 over an inadequate 1m, plus that was away from his beloved Lingfield. Today his mark is 62 and he will only have to run to around 67 to win this. His postmark high is 76.
With his fitness/wellbeing improving and a return to his favourite track and trip with his most prolific jockey on board I can very much see him running to a postmark of 67+ and with him sitting at 33/1 with Bet365 we have to take a chance on him.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
