Hi,
Please see my selection for Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup:
Zanza – 2.15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 12/1 Paddy Power/William Hill/Betfred – 6 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I’m putting up Zanza again as I am convinced, he is a well handicapped horse and can win this prestigious handicap.
This is one of the biggest pots of the year and in hindsight I should have realised when I put him up last time on his seasonal debut that connections were just giving him a pipe opener.
In the Haldon Cup he was surprisingly weak in the market and now I understand. I was not expecting connections to use that race as a prep for this, but the way he was tenderly ridden at the end of the race (and blew up two out) suggests today was always Plan A.
He still ran a good race to finish a close 3rd from 4lb out of the handicap (off 148), so the fact he can run off 144 today is a real eyecatcher. He still postmarked 153 last time so off 144 that’s already a +9 above his handicap mark. Now that would be enough to win most normal handicaps, but this is one of the richest handicaps in the calendar and hugely competitive so I suspect Zanza will need a little more to win it (probably +12 to +15).
But that is highly likely, especially on his favoured goodish ground.
He won over 2m 3F as a younger horse so this 2m 4F round the sharper inside track at Cheltenham should bring out natural improvement. His French pedigree reinforces this point.
Obviously, we have to face the fact Zanza fell and was brought down in his last two runs at Cheltenham, but he has been unlucky and jumped well last time. This slightly longer trip means he will be going a stride slower which is bound to assist and I’m hopeful it will be third time lucky.
He is a second season chaser, and that profile normally wins this prize.
I am going in early as I suspect Zanza will be a single figure price on the day and the 12/1 we take now means we can make the each way play with 6 places on offer. I therefore recommend 1.5 Points Each Way with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfred.
He is still value at 8/1, but I would recommend a straight win at that price.
See my previous write up on Zanza, he was my Cheltenham Festival 2021 handicap bet of the week, but was brought down when making a move 3 out in the Grand Annual:
Zanza – Grand Annual Chase 2M Handicap Chase – (Wednesday) – 14/1 Sporting Index – 1.5 points each way.
Well, I’m so sorry to subscribers that I waited an extra day to put up my first antepost bet in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as the 22/1 I advised yesterday has unfortunately gone and he is best priced 14/1 (I’m sick!).
The horse in question is Zanza, and annoyingly the legendary Racing Post tipster, Tom Segal, commonly known as Pricewise has tipped up Zanza in Thursday’s Racing Post. This has caused the price to collapse.
Zanza is seven years old and has been progressing nicely over the past two seasons. Last year he won a handicap hurdle off 136 and then ran in the three most prestigious and hotly contested handicap hurdles in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham, The Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot, and Betfair hurdle at Newbury. He acquitted himself well at a time when he was still very green and pulling hard in his races and that experience will have done him the world of good to face the challenge of a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
This season he has gone novice chasing and progressed with every run. On his second start he finished an eye catching 12 length second to Allmankind (who is 3rd favourite for the Arkle) and could easily have finished closer if ridden out properly, but it was good experience. He followed this up with an impressive win at Newbury in a handicap off 136 where he won going away by 5 lengths.
His latest run was at Cheltenham in a really strong run race where he was travelling supremely well tracking the leaders before falling 3 out. You can never be sure how he would have finished but he was full of running and looked sure to be involved at the finish.
The winner of that race was Sky Pirate, who ran off 134, and has gone on to win again and is now rated 152. Sky Pirate is 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual. The second was Ibleo who ran off 137 and has subsequently won twice and is now rated 154, he is 16/1 for the Grand Annual.
Zanza is running off the same mark so will be getting an 18lb & 17lb pull at the weights with these two market principles.
The icing on the cake is the ground. When he ran against Sky Pirate and Ibleo it was soft, but Zanza is a top of the ground horse, which makes his Cheltenham run even more impressive. Indeed Phillip Hobbs has already said that Zanza won’t run in the Grand Annual if the ground is soft.
It now looks like the long range forecast is for dry weather at the Cheltenham Festival and the going on the Wednesday is very likely to be good/soft. Consequently, it’s highly probable he will have his perfect conditions.
You should note that Zanza is entered for a race at Doncaster this Saturday (and should be backed, if he runs!!), if he wins, he will only receive a maximum 5lb penalty and with the ground looking like being on the fast side I think Phillip Hobbs will run to get some more experience into Zanza.
If he wins, he will probably go off favourite for the Grand Annual. If he runs at Doncaster and flops, then he will probably miss Cheltenham.
This is where the Non Runner No Bet angle comes into play. I am recommending you back him now, take this offer, and if he flops at the weekend and doesn’t run at Cheltenham, then you can claim your money back. If he wins, we have a great each way bet for one of the favourites at the Festival.
He looks a fantastic bet and I’m just sorry I didn’t advise you all when I backed him two weeks ago at 33/1!!! I will attach my betting slip to this email as proof!!!
I am recommending 1.5 points each way at 14/1 with Sporting Index – 5 places.
