Hi,
Please see my two tips below for Monday:
Canal Rocks – 2.00 Leicester – 2m Selling Hurdle – 66/1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Sky – 1 Point Each Way.
In sellers the horses do not carry the weigh according to their ability/handicap mark. If this was a handicap, then 114 rated Monarchofthegrange would be giving between 19lbs and 45lbs to his rivals. But instead he carries the same weight, only adjusted for age and sex allowances.
Its therefore no surprise to see him sitting as 1/3 favourite.
That’s no price to take in a seller as these horses are here for a reason and consistency is not one of their main attributes. Especially Monarchofthegrange who has run 4 times to around the 110-115 mark but interestingly has never run two good races back to back. So considering he ran 114 last time out there is every chance he will run below par today. This opens the door to a big price winner!
You can see why he is 1/3 as there is a distinct lack of depth in this race, with the second favourite, Gaia Vallis, an 83 rated hurdler who has managed to postmark at best around the 90 mark.
Gary Moore has an interesting runner in Saghir, who managed to postmark 76 on the flat. This shows he has a proven engine, but his two hurdle races so far have seen him disappoint and postmark 72 on his debut and just 1 on his latest run where he was tailed off. He could easily bounce back if he can harness his flat ability and is interesting at 16/1 in the market.
However there is another ex-flat performer, Canal Rocks. who looks more interesting to me as he was better on the flat than Saghir and also has produced more over hurdles. And at 66/1 that makes him much more interesting!!
Canal Rocks won on the flat off a mark of 72 at Newbury and postmarked a high of 87 over 1m. He also had a massive preference for good fast ground.
He switched to hurdles after some below par flat efforts and has run just the once over hurdles in a good novice hurdle won by a horse who postmarked 122. Now this race was run at a good pace and Canal Rocks settled nicely in midfield and in the main jumped well. You would never have thought it was his first hurdle race. In the last half a mile he was under pressure but was only 9 lengths down two out where he only slightly jinked at the fence but the jockey fell off in what looked a really soft unseat.
But in the context of the race Canal Rocks achieved a lot and would have postmarked somewhere between 85 -100. Because he fell, he has been attributed a 0 postmark. This is really handy for us as if he had stood up and run to say 90 then he would be second favourite today and be a 5/1 shot!!!
Another massive positive was the unsuitable soft ground for his debut run. When he was on the flat, he won on good/firm and was a non-runner on soft. So this first hurdle performance can certainly upgraded.
Today’s ground is good/soft good in places, so we should naturally see an improved effort.
The 7lb claimer has been replaced with a very good 3lb claimer Charlie Price, who has won for the stable, so this looks a positive jockey booking.
I think Canal Rocks has a superb chance of placing and can win this if the favourite slightly underperforms and at 66/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Sky, we have to get involved with a 1 point each way play.
He is still value at 10/1.
Comeragh Lad – 3.45 Plumpton – 3m 1F Handicap Hurdle – 20/1 Bet365, Sky, William Hill – 1 Point Each Way
Comeragh Lad is a winning 3 mile point to pointer and although just a modest hurdler is still relatively unexposed and showed up well last year in three races over 2m5F and 3 miles.
His best run was with today’s jockey Niall Houlihan on board which is a real bonus to his chances.
His best run last year was off a mark of 85 on good ground and today he gets in here off just 77 with similar going.
Comeragh Lad had what looked a blatant pipe opener recently where he ran over a totally inadequate 2 miles and was outpaced and pulled up. But today he steps right up to 3 mile 1F which should be very much to his liking.
He should leave that first run behind him and we can back him at lovely odds of 20/1 with Bet365, Sky and William Hill.
Unfortunately there has been a non-runner so there is only 7 runners, but at least that means we get quarter odds for second place.
I recommend 1 point each way and he is still value at 12/1.
