Hi
Please see my four tips for Saturday:
Doctor Duffy – 2.25 Haydock – 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 16/1 Paddy Power, William Hill and BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way – 5 places.
This is always a well contested event with some progressive sorts in the field. It always has a feel of a Cheltenham Festival Handicap and sometimes is won by a future Grade 1 horse.
I can’t see any Grade 1 horses in here today but there are many unexposed types that are certain to rate higher, it’s just whether they can handle the hurly burly of a big handicap.
I like the look of the Irish raider Doctor Duffy who is trained by Charles Byrnes, one of the shrewdest Trainers in Ireland. Now Doctor Duffy has plenty of successful experience having won some big handicaps in Ireland and coming third over fences in the Kerry National off an Irish mark of 145.
Previously over hurdles she had looked a little soft, but still put up some fine performances, what seems to have been the making of her is the application of a visor. She knuckles down, stays and concentrates on the job, and she has improved to another level over fences. This should also apply back hurdling.
In Ireland they have a separate chase and hurdle marks and after a successful chase campaign last season, Doctor Duffy is up to 147 in Ireland, which equates to an UK mark of around 151, but her hurdle mark is lower and can run here today off a UK mark of just 139.
We know she has improved, and can win big handicaps, so Doctor Duffy looks well ahead of the handicapper off 139 and is very capable of taking this prize.
It’s classic Charles Byrnes style that they gave her a nice cosy pipe opener to the season and removed the visor. She drifted in the market, but still posted a solid effort to finish second, which didn’t impact on pushing up her handicap mark, but shows she is well and will put her spot on for today’s race.
Surprise surprise, the visor goes back on today and with the fast ground very much in her favour Doctor Duffy looks a rock solid each way play at very generous odds of 16/1 with 5 places on offer. I’m amazed she isn’t shorter and wouldn’t be surprised to see her punted in.
I’m therefore recommend 1 point each way.
I think she is still value at 10/1.
Pollards Fen – 1.23 Huntingdon 3m 1F Maiden Hurdle – 100/1 Sky, Paddy Power, William Hill – 1 Point Each Way – 2 Places.
This 6 runner maiden hurdle is dominated by Pass Me By who has postmarked 108 on his jumping debut over 2m 4F.
The biggest risk to Pass Me By is probably going to be the step up to 3m 1F and navigating the hurdles as his rivals look a sorry old bunch.
The second favourite has shown his best form on heavy going and his form deteriorated at the end of last season (postmarked in the 90’s). He had a wind operation so that could help but at 6/4 he looks incredibly risky. He is unproven at the 3m 1F trip, his fitness will be severely tested first time out, the ground could be too fast, and he will probably need the run to help gain confidence in his breathing.
Consequently he has a very strong chance of failing which opens up the distinct possibility that one of the rags will grab at least a place.
Now the rest do look bad, as the 3rd favourite postmarked 73 on his hurdling debut and I think this may allow Pollards Fen to run into that place at rewarding odds of 100/1 and pay us 25/1 just for second place.
Pollard Fen has run twice under rules but was very novicey and slow at his hurdles. He was also outpaced over shorter trips and ended up being tailed off both times postmarking just 49 and 39.
This doesn’t read well, but prior to that he won a 3 mile point to point easily by 6 lengths defeating a 108 rated rival and two other reasonable rivals. That was round a right handed track and he hasn’t gone that way since and looking how he jumps it will definitely be beneficial to his chances going back to right handed Huntingdon.
This P2P win also proves he has some ability and can jump. Plus he probably ran to a postmark in excess of 100 which will be high enough to grab a place and might even trouble the favourite today.
Connections have added cheekpieces that can help a horse travel and jump more fluently which could be the crucial factor and he should strip fitter for his recent seasonal debut.
It’s worth taking a chance in this small field and I recommend 1 point each way at 100/1 with Sky, Paddy Power and William Hill.
He is still value at 33/1.
Message To Martha – 3.08 Huntingdon – 3 Mile 1F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Bet365, Sky , Paddy Power – 1 Point Each Way.
This 8 runner long distance handicap hurdle looks wide open. The favourite has won his last two but is now up in the weights and the victories were by small margins, so his winning run is likely to end here.
This low grade race sees Message To Martha sit at the bottom of the weights on 10 stone (off a mark of 79) but technically has to run from 20lb out of the handicap as she is only rated 59.
This is another classic example of how the handicap system can throw up an anomaly as whilst Message To Martha has shown nothing in her 3 novice hurdle runs and warrants a mark of 59, prior to that she ran 2nd in a 3 mile Point To Point. (The handicapper cannot use the Point To Points to assess the horses ability, only the three poor hurdles runs)
Now looking at the horses in the Point To Point she finished 6 lengths in front of a winning Point to Pointer who has just recently postmarked 100 on his debut under rules and only 4 lengths behind the winner who has run close second twice to horses that were rated in the 150’s when under rules.
This to me this suggests she postmarked around 90 to 100 (to finish second in that P2P) and hence today’s mark of 79 is very much within her compass especially with Tabitha Worsley’s 5lb claim.
We can get 50/1 with Bet365, Sky and Paddy Power and considering she is fit from her seasonal debut and up in trip (from 2 miles last time) I am hopeful of a big run on her handicap debut.
She is still value at 25/1.
De Bruyne Horse – 2.55 Lingfield – 7F Handicap – 66/1 Sky, Paddy Power, William Hill – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I feel really sorry for the 6 year old De Bruyne Horse as he used to love Southwell’s fibresand surface winning multiple times at the track over 7F off marks between 54 and 61. Unfortunately that surface has been ripped up so he has to find another surface where he can be affective.
In his younger days he won a French Listed race over 7F and postmarked 98, so he has some proper back class!
He has been trained by David Griffiths for 2 years during which time the trainer had a really dodgy time period of almost a year without a winner, but De Bruyne Horse finished that run back in February this year by winning off a mark of 54.
After that win, De Bruyne Horse went on a terrible run of form with him being tailed off in 5 starts during the summer, mainly on turf, before he was given a break.
He returned to action recently at Wolverhampton and from a wide draw showed some spark, running prominent, but wide all the way and kicking in the home straight to lead only to blow up in the final half furlong where he was eased and postmarked 34.
That run was really promising after a break and he will definitely come on for that effort.
The break has done him good, and I think he will build on that run, and from a nice low draw he can be ridden prominently and bag a much better position near the rail. There is one other prominent runner in Winnetka, who won over 6F last time out who will likely bag the main lead role, but De Bruyne Horse doesn’t have to lead and can race prominently before making his move in the home straight.
Lingfield is a short straight and running prominent and kicking for home is exactly the tactic to win races round here, so this could easily become his new favourite track.
He runs off 50 here today and has the very good Martin Dwyer who is excellent at front running and judging front end pace, so I’m hopeful we can get a big run at tasty odds of 66/1!! (Sky, Paddy Power and William Hill).
I therefore recommend 1 point each way at 66/1.
He is still value at 20/1.
