Hi
Please see my three picks for Saturday:
One For Fleurie – 3.00 Newbury – Ladbrokes Trophy – 3m 2F Handicap Chase – 33/1 Betfred, BetVictor, Boyles – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The richest handicap in the calendar and this looks a better renewal than normal. The market is dominated by the classy Irish top weights, Eklat De Rire and OntheRopes. Paul Nicholl’s Enrilo looks the most obvious UK based rival with Fiddlerontheroof, from the resurgent Tizzard stable, adding further classy Graded form.
Of these Eklat De Rire is the one I like, but he has been backed into favourite and represents poor value at 7/2.
The one I like at a price is One More Fleurie from the very good Trainer Ian Williams. They have good sorts in the yard for both flat and jumps and he is no stranger to winners in valuable handicaps.
I feel One More Fleurie has been overlooked by the market. The key types of horse who win this race are generally second season chasers, who are progressive, demonstrate they can jump, stay, and relish a flat galloping track. A secondary trait of previous winners is the ability to race prominently.
One More Fleurie ticks all these boxes, he has won 4 of his 8 chases with his last win being in a valuable Ayr Class 2 three mile Novice Handicap Chase where he led a good field and jumped them into submission winning by a comfortable 6 lengths with a further 7 lengths back to 3rd. That form has been franked many times, most notably by the the second, Mac Tottie, who went onto win the uber competitive Grand Sefton Chase this season.
That was off a mark of 128 and he has gone 9lb to 137 but the manner of the success suggests there is more to come.
This is race is usually won by either a potential grade 1 performer, such as Denman or Bobs Worth. Or one near the bottom of the weights that is still progressing from a mark in the mid 130’s or low 140’s, like last year’s winner Cloth Cap.
The market has the all the potential grade 1 winners as short prices and seems to have missed that One More Fleurie fits the exact profile of the bottom weight winners.
We can take advantage and I therefore recommend 1 point each way at 33/1 with BetVictor, Betfred, or Boyles, who all offer 5 places.
He still looks value at 14/1.
Leagan Gaeilge – 2.11 Fairyhouse – 2 Mile 4F Handicap Hurdle – 22/1 Sky, Paddy Power, William Hill – 1 Point Each Way.
The 5 year old Leagan Gaeilge looks a fascinating contender in this good grade Irish handicap.
She has been off the track for almost a year, so has fitness to prove, but looking at her previous form she has demonstrated on three occasions that she is best when fresh.
Leagan Gaeilge won on her flat debut when trained by the Bolger’s and reached 82 before going over jumps as a three year old.
Her hurdle debut was in a juvenile event which has thrown up the winner of the Triumph hurdle and many top grade hurdlers. So the fact she won it shows she is a natural hurdler. She postmarked 116 and the trainer commented there was plenty more to come.
Unfortunately Leagan Gaeilge was injured and hasn’t run over hurdles since.
She returns today as a 5 year old and will have strengthened and matured plenty since her debut win. The fact she runs off a mark of 116 makes her look really appealing as I feel you could add 12lbs of improvement just for maturity.
At 22/1 with Sky, Paddy Power and William Hill she is worth taking a chance on her fitness and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 14/1.
Well Cliché – 3.07 Bangor – 2Mile 7.5F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Sky, Betfred, Boyles – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 6 year old mare Well Cliché is very lightly raced.
She ran two promising placed efforts in 3 mile point to points before coming under rules and racing down the field in three maiden hurdles.
Those hurdle runs were nice cosy efforts over 2m 4F where she raced in rear and wasn’t given a hard time, but still postmarked a high of 90.
Well Cliché made her seasonal reappearance recently for her handicap debut over an inadequate 2m 5F and ran another pleasing pipe opener. Jumping and travelling well in rear and getting behind before making her minimal effort in the home straight.
She will strip fitter for that outing and now gets stepped up to a much more suitable three miles today.
This is a conditional jockey race and it’s a real bonus that connections have jocked up the very talented Peter Kavanagh, who is I would consider to be one of the best apprentices in the UK.
At 50/1 Well Cliché has been hugely over priced and I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Sky, Betfred and Boyles who all offer 4 places.
She is still value at 20/1.
