Hi,
Please see my two tips for Tuesday’s racing:
Irish Octave – 2.30 Uttoxeter – 2m 6.5 Handicap Chase – 66/1 William Hill, Skybet, Ladbrokes – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The market prices are primarily dictated by recent form, trainer profile, horse trends and course record.
However the confidence of the Trainer and his staff is also a massive factor as money coming from these sources and good or bad comments to the media will seriously affect it’s starting price positively, or negatively.
Many a time I have seen a 33/1 shot win when connections had no confidence in the horse. This is usually because the horse is either lazy at home and saves the best for the track or is just really temperamental/moody and connections never know if he will run it’s race.
I love these quirky types of horses as invariably no money comes for them, and they go off at big prices and still win, sometimes quite impressively!
Now I’m not saying Irish Octave will win today impressively, but he won well before coming from having a year off. Afterwards the Trainer, Rosemary Glasson, said he was a difficult, awkward and uncooperative horse to train and was also lame regularly and she was frustrated with him and completely surprised that he won. Irish Octave went on to win his next race and once again Rosemary was not confident.
Further comments after his 7 victories included saying he was talented but didn’t always show it!
Unfortunately, Irish Octave has been off the track for nearly 2 years, clearly with an injury, and the market has written off the 11 year olds chances, however I think this is a massive mistake.
I say this as this moody horse is returning to his favourite track, Uttoxeter, where he has run 7 times, winning three and placing twice. He has been incredibly consistent there and something about the place makes him want to race, which is exactly what we want! I bet he will love going back there and will excite him to run well, especially after 2 years off!
Furthermore, because he suffers from lameness more racing can make his injuries worse and make it difficult for him to run well, so the fact we can back him when fresh and well is a real positive.
Fitness could still be the issue, but Rosemary has had plenty of time to get some base fitness into him and with this type they kind of only do enough at home. This may well be enough to see him through today.
Irish Octave last won in 2019 off 107 (at Uttoxeter) by a commanding 10 lengths in a Class 3 event, so the fact he runs here off 103 in a Class 4 gives him a fair chance at the weights. He also has the best adjusted ratings of all these runners at the track.
When you weigh up Irish Octave’s chance a solid case can be made for him, so I’m really pleased there is no market confidence, and we can back him today at big odds. He is available at 66/1 with William Hill, Skybet and Ladbrokes and I recommend 1 point each way.
It’s very likely there will be no market confidence behind him, other than from us!! So whilst there is likely to be some contraction in his price between 7am and 10am, by the time the main liquidity hits the market 15 mins before the off I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drifting out violently, maybe to 100/1+.
Therefore please bet with a best odds guaranteed Bookmaker!!
He is still value at 20/1.
Sparkling Dawn – 3.20 Fontwell – 2m 1F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook.
My other selection is another who arrives off the back of a big 680 day layoff.
The 9 year old mare Sparkling Dawn must have been difficult to train as she has only raced 9 times. Four of these in National Hunt Flat races and only 5 times over hurdles.
Her runs have been punctuated with long absences, but she has certainly shown ability in her NH Flat races winning a soft ground Huntingdon bumper and three times postmarked over 100, with her highest being 105.
She made the worst possible start to her hurdling career, falling on both her first two runs only getting to the third and fourth hurdle, respectively.
Sparkling Dawn managed to complete on her next three runs, but these were spaced out over almost a year.
Today she arrives under a new trainer, Richard Hawker, and makes her belated handicap debut off a mark of just 75 and comparing this to what she achieved in her National Hunt flat races makes her look very attractively handicapped!
Don’t get me wrong she only postmarked a high of 63 in her novice hurdles so fully deserves the mark of 75. But I do feel she was a slow learner and must have completely lost her confidence after the falls, so those outings just served a rebuilding process.
I have watched the novice hurdles races and she definitely improved her hurdling technique. I’m hopefully with all that time off they have also given her plenty of recent schooling to hone her jumping.
It’s bodes well that Richard Hawker has a 40% strike rate over the past two years with his handicap debutants (2 from 5) and even though she runs off a big break, isn’t a big framed sort so shouldn’t take as much to get fit and ready.
Sparkling Dawn won her NH flat race off a 312 day break, so has demonstrated her ability to run well fresh and with her looking well handicapped and being the 66/1 outsider I’m prepared to take a chance on her first time out!
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook.
She is still value at 25/1.
