Hi,
Please see below my four picks for Wednesday:
Johanos – 2.30 Lingfield – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 9/1 Sky, 888, BetVictor – 2 Point win.
This is a Veterans chase open to horses aged 10 and over. These are great races as it gives us all a chance to see some of our old favourites winning races where they are not up against unexposed young rivals.
This is quite an unusual Vets race as 8 of the 9 runners are either 10 or 11 years old.
By the very nature of these races you don’t often get any unexposed types, but in Johanos we have a horse that has only run 12 times and just 5 times over chases.
He has shown some decent form, winning two hurdle races over 2m 4F on heavy ground, including a handicap hurdle off 121.
Johanos then had two years off before embarking on his chasing career. He is bred to be a chaser and his trainer, Mick Buckley remarked that he was an out and out galloper suited to 2m 4F to 3 miles.
He showed his chasing ability when finishing a close second to the 150 rated Truckers Lodge, postmarking 135, but his career was curtailed by another 2 years off.
Johanos returned to action recently with a blow out over hurdles and today’s race looks a great opportunity to get his chasing career back on track. The handicapper has given him a chance by reducing his handicap mark for his break and the hurdle prep race means he gets in here today off just 112 which gives him a huge chance.
Unfortunately, I have missed the early prices where he was 14s, but I still think the 9/1 is still good value as I see him being more of a 6/1 shot in this field.
I am going to recommend a 2 point win at 9/1 with Sky, 888 or BetVictor.
He is still value at 7/1.
Riliya – 3.45 Dundalk – 1M Handicap – 50/1 Paddy Power, BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
The 3 year old filly Riliya hasn’t set the world a light just yet, but his trainer, John C McConnell is a master at bringing his average horses along slowly and getting wins in these lower grade handicaps.
Riliya was slowly away in her maidens over a mile and finished mid division, postmarking a high of 45. Once she was handicapped her form improved slightly but was disappointing stepped up to longer trips and her best postmark in 4 handicap runs was only 49.
There must have been a breathing issue as Riliya had a tongue tie applied for her last race over a mile where the good apprentice Siobhan Rutledge was in the saddle. They made a good start and were nicely prominent but were unlucky throughout the race. Firstly being squeezed out and shuffled back from 1 length off the pace to 5 lengths into midfield. Coming into the home straight they were denied an initial run and had to wait for a gap to switch off the rail. They went for a run at the 2 furlong pole and were squeezed out, losing all chance but still stayed on for a 5 length 7th. She but would have placed with a clear run.
Today they are back over the same course and distance and from a slightly wider draw will hopefully go handy and have the space on the outside to make there move coming into the home straight.
The tongue tie definitely helped and is retained for today and that should give Riliya more confidence in her ability to see the whole race out.
Running off the basement mark of 45 and with a best postmark of 49 won’t be enough to win this, but only a small amount of improvement will be required, and the trainer/jockey combo are adept at winning with these types with similar unexposed improvers.
We can currently get a huge 50/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Riliya being a major market mover before the off.
She is still value at 16/1.
Pistol – 12.20 Hexham – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 100/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill, BetVictor – 4 places -1 Point Each Way.
I have put up Pistol for his first two runs of the season as the old boy is just too well handicapped and I’m sure connections are hunting for another victory with their stable stalwart before they retire him.
He loves Carlisle, where he ran on his first two runs, but in hindsight the good ground was just too fast for him.
Today is a different story as its heavy and bottomless. These are perfect conditions for Pistol as it slows up his opposition and he is a big strong sort who can get through the ground. His record on heavy is 5 wins and 5 places from just 19 starts!
Whilst he loves Carlisle, he has come second at Hexham off a mark of 110 and today runs off just 84. Don’t get me wrong he is older, and his ability is diminishing, but that mark is low enough on this ground and his racing weight of 10st will really make a difference. So will the 7lb allowance his regular rider J Dixon claims. He can do the 9st 7lb so Pistol can run off a nett mark of 77 and will only be 3lb out of the official handicap.
Pistol is now race fit and is getting his preferred heavy ground for the first time in six starts (since November 2020) and it’s no surprise to hear that was the last time he placed in a race (off 86).
At 100/1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill and BetVictor, who all offer 4 places, we have an excellent chance of grabbing a place with a good chance of victory and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 33/1.
Filou D’Anjou – 3.20 Hexham – 3m Handicap Hurdle – 100/1 Sky, Betfred– 5 Places (William Hill also 100/1) – 1 Point Each Way.
One of my favourite races is a (0-100) 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle. This enables the lowest grade horses rated around the 70 mark to have a realistic chance of winning a race.
Filou D’Anjou meets this criteria being rated just 68.
On a positive side he is very lightly raced having just one NH flat race and 3 maiden hurdles and today makes his handicap debut.
His maiden runs were not devoid of promise. He jumped well but just looked slow and was soon outpaced/outclassed by his rivals over 2 miles and 2 miles 4F.
Now in the lowest grade handicap he has his first realistic chance to run in his right grade and I like that connections immediately step him up to 3 miles.
Filou D’Anjou is a French bred and comes from a staying family who all relished a 3 mile trip.
Filou D’Anjou runs off 70 and being only rated 68 is technically 2lb out of the handicap, but that’s no disaster. He was not given a hard time in his maidens and was never really ridden out after tailing off, so the fact he postmarked 69 means he only needs to improve a little to get involved here.
Now the step up in trip should be enough on it’s own and as long as he handles the heavy ground (French bred usually love it) then that will slow down his rivals and bring him into the equation.
Hexham’s steep uphill finish should see his stamina really come into play, and the heavy ground will make it a slow motion finish which hopefully plays into his hands.
He is fit after his maiden runs, unexposed and open to any amount of improvement so the 100/1 with Skybet and Betfred, who offer 5 places (others also 100/1) is huge in my eyes and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.