Hi
Please see my one tip for Sunday – Good luck!
Wells Gold – 12.15 Southwell – 3m 2F Handicap Chase – 66/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook & BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
This 3m 2F handicap chase places a great emphasis on stamina and it’s unusual to see a race where not one horse is a proven winner over the trip. Even the two short priced favourites are taking a big step up so there is every chance of an outsider winning this.
The one I like at a price is the 10 year old Wells Gold, he started life as a 4 year old in 3 mile Point to Points and demonstrated ability by winning one and placing in others.
He moved under rules for the very good Fergal O’Brien and after some quiet runs in maidens, he started to show his form, winning a 2m 5F handicap hurdle off 83.
Fergal soon switched him to chasing and took his hurdles mark of 90. The Bookmaker’s must have intelligence in Fergal’s yard as the market always seems to know when his horses are expected to run well and Wells Gold went off 3/1 favourite in a 12 runner handicap chase.
Now he didn’t win, but he jumped well and stayed on strongly for 3rd. It was the 2m 5F trip that was simply too short for him, only lost by 4 lengths.
Bearing in mind he won a point to point as a young 5 year old and had stayed on in other P2P’s. Then it’s fair to say now as a mature horse he has plenty of stamina to see out today’s trip. This is further backed up by his breeding.
Now as a 6 year old Well’s Gold looked to have a promising staying chasing career in front of him with him set to be rated 100 – 130, but injury has cruelly denied him. He was pulled up on his next start and must have done a tendon as he was sold on to a small P2P trainer.
They started his rehabilitation and kept him off for a year before bring him back to the track, but that must have been to soon as he was then off for a further 2 years!!
Connections have been incredibly patient and in August this year Wells Gold returned to the track over a wholly inadequate 2m 2F in a handicap hurdle race where he was allowed to just pop round at the back. He jumped well but was outpaced and never ridden out and was only beaten 38 lengths, postmarking 58. This might not sound great, but under the circumstances this was a very pleasing rehabilitation run.
He has been off another 4 months, but I don’t mind that as he will be over the dreaded bounce factor that can mean a horse under performs on the second quick run back off a long absence.
What I really like about him today is the switch back to chasing, where he remains hugely unexposed. Connections have stepped him right up to 3m 2F and have reapplied the cheekpieces that he wore for his best form with Fergal’s yard.
I read some race comments and Well’s Gold is a lazy horse who will only just do enough and the cheekpieces just help sharpen him up.
These weren’t on for his reappearance in August 2021 and I’m glad they have chosen today as the time to reapply them.
This coincides with the eye catching booking of the very good Charlie Deutsch who is one of the best chaser jockeys on the circuit (No 1 jockey with Venetia Williams) and has a 19% strike rate over the big obstacles.
Reading between the lines I suspect Well’s Gold glass legs flared up after his August outing, so without wanting to push him too soon they have just kept him ticking over for the last 4 months. So hopefully his base fitness is now in place.
If he weren’t race fit, I think they would be keeping him over hurdles for another prep run, probably over a short trip, so the fact they step him up to 3m 2F and send him chasing with a top jockey on is a very good sign.
Well’s Gold looks well enough handicapped off a mark of 77 on his hurdles form and is hugely unexposed over chases that definitely suit him. Amazingly we can back him at huge odds of 66/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor and get 4 places in this 12 runner field, this is tremendous value!
Obviously, the big risk is his fitness over the trip, but I’m very much prepared to take the risk at the price, so I recommend 1 point each way at 66/1.
He is still value at 16/1.
