Hi,
Please see a bumper 4 tips for Tuesday:
Wilderness – 3.00 Wincanton – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 40/1 Sky, Paddy Power, BetVictor – 5 Places – 1.5 Points Each Way.
This is a wide open big handicap and I like the look of Wilderness.
She was good on the flat for Johnny Murtagh in Ireland, winning 4 races up to 1m4F and reached a peak mark of 82. Her wins were on all weather, and turf on good/soft going.
Wilderness was sold and went jumping for Seamus Mullins and her jumping was novicey in maidens. Her raw flat ability enabled her to win a maiden hurdle where she stayed on strongly over 2m 1F.
She didn’t follow it up, being outpaced over a sharp 2 miles.
She was given a Summer break and came back with two mediocre runs in October and November. Having said that she improved in the second outing, so her fitness is progressing.
Today Wilderness looks really interesting as connections have decided to apply blinkers for the first time. This is significant as Wilderness showed considerable improvement on the flat for the application of a visor to rattle up a hattrick of wins and rise in the handicap from 59 to 82.
I’m sure her Trainer, Seamus Mullins, has kept this blinkers/visor ace up his sleeve until Wilderness had sufficient jumping experience and also at a time when she most needed some help with her focus and attitude.
Wilderness is running off 103 and having already postmarked 108 twice (in her 8 jumps outings) she will need to run slightly better to win this, however when you factor in the probably blinker improvement, she looks very capable of fining the improvement.
Furthermore, when you consider her, flat mark is 82 you can normally add around 40-45 to calculate an average jumps mark. That would take her to 122-127. This upside combined with the blinkers really give her an excellent chance.
Today’s 2m 4F trip looks ideal for Wilderness, so does the good/soft going. But the real icing on the cake is the return to the plate of Michael Nolan, who replaces a young apprentice. Nolan replaced the same apprentice to bag Wildernesses first win over hurdles (and two subsequent good back up runs) and this combined with the blinkers shows massive intent by connections.
We can back Wilderness at juicy odds of 40/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power and BetVictor, who offer 5 places in this 17 runner event, and to me she looks a cracking bet so I’m recommending a 1.5 point each way play.
She is still value at 16/1.
Marias Lad – 1.15 Catterick – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Corals, Boyles – BOG – 3 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
As I write this, I feel very frustrated as I was hoping the market might completely underestimate Marias Lad’s chances and put him up at maybe 100/1, unfortunately we can only get 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral’s, Boyles(although he is 28/1 with William Hill). This was despite his initial tissue being 50/1.
The reason I thought Marias Lad would be an extreme price was that he sits 59lb out of the handicap!! Now that is huge, the market normally dismisses horses chances if they are just 7lb wrong and makes them longshots.
59lb out of the handicap would normally mean a horse would be a complete no hoper. But Marias Lad’s circumstances are not your normal scenario. He came from the Point to Point field and on his one and only start postmarked 80, finishing an 8 length 5th .
When I look at the P2P opposition, they have gone on to postmark around 100, or more, so Marias Lads achievement could be upgraded to around 90-95.
Marias Lad moved to Ryan Potter’s shrewd small yard and started running under rules in novice hurdles. He has run a total of 4 times, and all these have been dreadful. He has either been pulled up or completely tailed off, with a postmark high of just 5.
This has resulted in him being given an opening handicap mark of just 20!!
Considering we know Marias Lad has run to around 90 -95, then we know this is completely undercooked. Don’t get me wrong, no horse can run off that mark, the lowest mark is usually around 70-74.
Today Marias Lad is running off bottom weight of 10stone off a mark of 79 and to me that still gives him scope to be very competitive.
It’s a really good sign that Ryan Potter has switched him from hurdles to chases for his handicap debut. Furthermore he has applied first time tongue tie and blinkers.
Now I’m reading between the lines, but I’m guessing Marias Lad developed a breathing issue, which resulted in him running badly for all 4 runs in his maiden. Now that he can breathe then he can run his race, and Mr Potter can tell the stewards, the resultant improvement has come from the application of a tongue tie (and blinkers).
To me he always looked like a punt today, and whilst there were a few small pockets of 40/1 available they were snapped up early.
As part of the back story, Ryan Potter, has already had a punt come in this week, so he has form for lining up a horse.
Knowing what we know Marias Lad is still value at 25/1, but not the monster value he could have been. I still think he is value at 16/1.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he is definitely going to win. Indeed he should tail off and finish last, but I’m happy that he could win this low grade race so recommend 1 point each way.
Barneys Bay – 6.00 Newcastle – 7F Handicap – 66/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
The 3 year old Barney’s Bay is a winner of 2 races over 6F. A handicap off 78 where he hosed up by 3 lengths and was given a 9lb hike in the weights to 87. Plus a win on Southwell’s fibresand.
That was earlier this year, but his form dipped for a couple of runs and was given a Summer break.
Barney’s Bay has come back with a couple of runs where he improved for his second outing and his fitness and race sharpness is improving. Those two runs were over 6F, but today he steps up to 7F.
This is an interesting move that will suit based upon his pedigree, but more interestingly as a 2 year old he started out over 7.5F and finished a close second postmarking 79. This is significant as that proves he stays and acts well over the trip and running to 79 in August 2020 as a two year means we can easily upgrade this mark for maturity.
Today Barneys Bay runs off his last winning mark of 78 so considering he sluiced in off that rating we know he is well handicapped.
Barneys Bay ran for only the second time on the all-weather last time out at Newcastle and performed adequately on the surface and this step up combined with the improved fitness could easily see him put in an improved run.
This is only a 7 runner race, but we can back Barneys Bay at an unbelievable 66/1. This is a crazy price, and we have to get involved, so I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
Rip Rocks Paddy OK – 12.15 Catterick – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Bet365, Coral, Boyles – 5 Places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 6 year old Rip Rocks Paddy OK started on the flat and went hurdling as a 3 year old juvenile in Ireland. He improved considerably for the switch to hurdling where he ran some big races in hot maidens.
He finished 6th of 19 at Punchestown where he finished close up to the eventual Cheltenham Festival Fred Winter winner. He also backed up this run at Clonmel over 2m 4Fpostmarking 119.
During his time in Ireland he ran to a postmark high of 122 and moved to Britain on a mark of 120.
After 4 disappointing runs Rip Rocks was sold on to a small UK Trainer, Kevin Hunter, where he proceeded to run poorly this year in all 5 outings.
I’ve been tracking the horse since the summer and I noted Rip Rocks had a tongue tie applied whilst in Ireland which definitely indicates a breathing issue, but when he arrived in UK the tongue tie was removed for all runs.
He travelled and jumped well enough, but at the business end he fell away tamely each time which is consistent with a breathing issue.
Rip Rocks was given a wind operation after these 5 UK runs and has had 4 months off.
He returns today for his first outing off a much reduced mark of 88, some 32lb lower than in March 2021.
Now his breathing has been improved he should be able to finish his races and take advantage of that reduced mark.
Rips Rocks has put up some of his best runs when fresh, so this all looks really good, but the bet does come with some considerable risks attached.
The Trainer Kevin Hunter hasn’t had a winner under rules in 29 attempts. So we are taking on trust that he has Rips Rock fit enough to do himself justice first time out. On the plus side he isn’t a big unit, so wouldn’t take as much work to get fit.
The other big issue is the wind operation. It can work on the first run, but sometimes the horse doesn’t trust his breathing and won’t let himself go through that initial pain barrier. Once the horse gains confidence that he can breathe, then he can run better, usually on his second start.
We just won’t know how Rip Rocks Paddy Ok will react.
It would be simpler to just wait for his second run to back him, but that might be too late. He could win today or run an encouraging race and place. The next run he could end being at the head of the market and be very little value to us.
It’s all about the price and Rip Rocks Paddy OK can be backed at 66/1 with Bet365, Coral and Boyles, who all offer 5 places. Most importantly they also offer best odds guaranteed, which in this instance is critical. With the Trainers bad profile Rip Rocks is very likely to drift in this big field to maybe 100/1-150/1.
Our money will impact his price, but I doubt there will be any other significant sustained bets so he will drift near the off.
On this basis we have to take the risk on his fitness and wellbeing, and I recommend 1 point each way at 66/1 BOG.
He is still value at 25/1.
