Hi
Please see below my three tips for Thursday:
Steel Native 12.10 Ffos Las – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
Ffos Las has seen enough rain recently to make the going heavy and it gets particularly deep and hard work. Most horses just can’t cope but others emerge as specialists who relish the conditions and need this extreme test to be seen at their best.
Steel Native is one of these specialists with four out of his 5 wins coming at Ffos Las on heavy ground off marks between 84 and 100. Today he runs off a very appealing 79.
Last season he only ran 5 times, being pulled up on his first two starts, but must have had a wind problem as a tongue tie was fitted and when he returned to his beloved Ffos Las on heavy ground, over hurdles he duly won off 84. That was the last time he had his winning conditions.
Steel Native had his seasonal debut recently and ran ok. He is bound to come on for the run and now returns under his ideal conditions, so we have to back him at good odds of 16/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 who also offer best odds guaranteed.
The one drawback is the odds on favourite who has won his last two starts comfortably and will be tough to beat, but he has never run on heavy at Ffos Las and if there is ever a track/conditions that will catch him out it’s today.
Even if he does run his race, we can grab a place pick up for a small profit as many will pull up under attritional conditions.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 8/1.
Wellhavewan – 12.50 Naas – 2m 3F Maiden Hurdle – 40/1 Coral Ladbrokes Bet365 – BOG – 3 Places – 1 Point each way.
This is the weakest maiden hurdle on the card and no horse comes here after a win or in particular good form. The winner will probably only have to run to 100 – 110.
This is a 21 runner field but it’s full of deadwood with virtually all of them looking to just qualify for a handicap mark. Consequently most will be held up in rear and not put in the race.
I am going to take a chance on Wellhavewan who is trained by Tim Townend and his daughter, J Townend (Paul Townend’s sister) takes the ride. She is a promising talent and has ridden Wellhavewan before in maidens.
So far these have been promising, twice being held up in rear and staying on over 2 miles, postmarking a high of 86. These were in the Spring and looked very much like runs to gain experience for both horse and jockey.
Today it could be a different story as they are stepping up to 2m 3F and Wellhavewan will relish the extra distance.
The step up will produce natural improvement and I could easily see that being enough to run to 100-110. If J Townend just lines up the horse near the front rank at the start that would also be enough!!!
At 40/1 I’m prepared to take a chance in a weak race so I’m recommending 1 point each.
He is still value at 20/1.
Lilly Banner – 1.25 Naas – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 100/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Quinnbet – BOG – 5 Places.
For a 25 runner handicap this is pretty much the worst field I have ever seen in Ireland!
Consequently it wont take anywhere near as much winning as you’d expect.
Most runners are not just out of form, but also exposed, and very few make any appeal.
Lilly Banner looks one of the few runners that are lightly raced who have shown some promise and I’m going to take a chance on her at massive odds of 100/1.
She is 7 years old but missed the last three years due to injury and has just had the one run back where she was dropped out in last place and just popped round in rear to gain some much needed racing practice. She jumped well enough, and the run should bring on her fitness.
Prior to the absence she had raced just three times in maiden hurdles and again was ridden in rear. She showed promise to run on and postmark a high of 90 on her second outing.
The fact that good run came on her second start and was a big step up on her first makes me hopeful she will show the same improvement today on her second start.
Lilly Banner runs off a mark of just 81, so is already 9lb lower than her best postmark. That makes her look well enough handicapped today. If she retains her previous ability, then I am certain she could easily improve to race in future off a mark 100+.
This is a conditional/amateur jockey race and Mr O McGill takes the ride. This is good news as he won recently for the trainer in a similar race.
This is a hopeful selection, but in such a bad race Lilly Banner has much more potential than the majority of the field and should really be a 25/1 shot. So the 100/1 available makes her the value play here.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
