Hi,
Please see attached my four tips for Saturday:
West Cork – 3.35 Ascot – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 15/2 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 5 Places (+ 15/2 BetVictor) 1 Point each Way.
This is one of the most prestigious handicaps of the season and you need a well handicapped, progressive horse to win it.
The biggest handicap hurdle before Christmas is the Greatwood Hurdle held at Cheltenham in November and that is the strongest handicap hurdle form line of the season. West Cork managed to win it coming off a 2 year break and his task was made even harder by his jockey Harry Skelton dropping is whip before the run in. Despite this he stayed on strongly pulling away from No Ordinary Joe in third.
West Cork is my pick off a 7lb higher mark, but No Ordinary Joe rates the biggest danger with a 4lb pull, as he raced freely all the way in the Greatwood, so he did well to see the race out as well as he did.
I still prefer West Cork, who has more to offer as he drifted on the day and has plenty of progression in him.
The Skelton’s train West Cork and they have won this race twice in 10 years which is always a good sign that they target this with a progressive horse.
At 15/2 with 5 places on offer he looks long enough, so I am recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 6/1 but would recommend just a straight win at that price.
Checkitout – 3.00 Ascot – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 17/2 Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 BOG – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
There are two valuable 3 mile handicap chases run at Ascot each year and the 13 year old Regal Encore has been a standing dish in these races winning and placing on many occasions. He is still the benchmark in these races and the fact he finished 3rd in the earlier Ascot handicap this season shows he still retains ability.
That day he ran 3rd but had Checkitout in front of him and I feel it will be a similar story as Checkitout is a young progressive horse that is starting to improve now his jumping has grown in confidence.
He ran in some big handicap last year but fell and made mistakes at critical moments that cost him dearly. This year it’s a different story, he ran 2nd first time out, finishing ahead of Regal Encore and then backed it up with a 3rd of 19 over Aintree’s National Fences (3m 2F). The ground was terribly bottomless that day which didn’t suit him whereas the ground forecast today is a perfect good/soft.
He is improving and now fully fit gets back here off the same 132 as his seasonal debut at Ascot so he must have a big chance.
At 15/2 with Ladbrokes, Coral and 888, who all offer BOG and 4 places I’m going to recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 6/1, but again only back him straight win at that price.
Fabulous Saga – 3.15 Haydock – 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 28/1 Ladbrokes, Corals, Boyles BOG (50/1 Bet365) – 1 Point Each Way.
The 9 year old Fabulous Saga was originally trained by Willie Mullins and was very decent winning a 3 mile Grade 2 hurdle defeating the prolific Grade 1 winner Delta Works. He postmarked an Irish high of 147.
He suffered injury and had 3 years off before moving to Paul Nicholl’s yard last year where he went chasing for two runs but wasn’t a natural and disappointed.
They went to Cheltenham Festival in the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle, but he lost his chance at the first where he was badly hampered at the first, losing his position and his race was effectively over when he wasn’t fluent at the second.
Fabulous Sag was subsequently sold on to Tom George, who is no mug and would never have bought the horse unless he felt the horses ability remained intact.
Fabulous Saga made his seasonal reappearance recently in a 3 mile handicap hurdle on deep ground at Ffos Las and set a scorching pace, especially considering the ground conditions. He jumped fluently and was still there 2 out before blowing up and being eased.
That was definitely a pipe opener, and he should come on bundles for that run.
The handicapper has given him a huge chance today dropping him to 124 and makes him a good bet on soft/heavy ground that he absolutely loves over his perfect trip of 3 miles.
Haydock also suits front runners, so I really feel he has an excellent chance. I’m therefore recommending a 1 point each way play at 28/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and 888 who offer BOG. Please note you can still get 50/1 with Bet365.
He is still value at 16/1.
Ngolo – 2.05 Haydock – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 33/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
Ngolo is another Willie Mullins cast off who last season won two novice hurdles on soft/heavy, before running in 5 Grade 1’s at all the big racing Festival during the season.
His Grade 1 performances were in the main disappointing where he didn’t seem to have the gears to cope over 2 miles at that level. But his best performance came at the Cheltenham Festival where he was stepped up to 3 miles in the Albert Bartlett and was still travelling on the bridle 3 furlongs out. Unfortunately, he didn’t pick up and faded in the final two. But that just indicated to me his need for 2m 4F.
Willie Mullin’s must have rated Ngolo to run him in all 5 Grade 1’s and never a handicap, so I think Ngolo looks really interesting now with Ann Duffield and running in his first ever handicap off a fair looking mark of 139.
He is fit from three flat runs and gets the benefit of the best UK based apprentice Kevin Brogan who’s 3lb claim is basically a bonus to us which means Ngolo runs off an attractive looking 136.
At 33/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair he looks a rock solid each way play and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 16/1.
