Hi,
Please see my three picks for Saturday:
Sam Brown – 2.40 Haydock – 2.35 3 Mile 1F Handicap Chase – 9/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The Peter Marsh chase is a real war of attrition on slow winter ground, and this year is no exception.
Royal Pagaille hosed up last year and goes off a short-priced favourite from a 7lb higher mark of 163. He is undoubtedly classy and will have many supporters, but it seemed to me he was the only horse that coped with the conditions last year.
It’s different this year, and I like the look of Sam Brown, who loves soft/heavy going and is still unexposed as a 10-year-old. He’s been somewhat fragile over the years (only raced 10 times) but has still shown his class, and ability, to act around Haydock on heavy going when winning a Grade 2 novice chase over an inadequate 2m 4F.
Sam Brown loves the heavy ground, a stamina test and acts at Haydock, so this race will have been one of his season’s primary targets.
Connections gave him the one prep in the Many Clouds Grade 2 chase at Aintree in November 2021, where he wasn’t disgraced in third behind Gold Cup hopeful, Protektorat.
That day his usual tongue tie was left off, but that’s back on and I’m convinced connections have lined him up to run the race of his life today.
Running off a mark of 147 will give him every chance, considering his previous course postmark high was 157 and I’m sweet on his chance.
Sam Brown is a rock-solid each-way play at 9/1 and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 6/1, but that would be recommended as a straight win.
Glen Ava – 3.25 Navan – 3 Mile Handicap chase – 66/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles – BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point each Way.
This 24 runner handicap chase is dominated by the 6/5 favourite, Routine Excellence, who was previously subject of a massive gamble and bolted up in a 2m 3f maiden hurdle.
He postmarked 112 that day and runs here in a handicap chase off a lenient looking mark of 88.
The market is right to keep him on his side, but I always feel very nervous about backing a horse next time out after a gamble, as the money has been won backing at big prices and more often than not, they don’t follow up.
I feel it’s particularly risky as the first time tongue tie applied for his gambled on win has been removed today and he steps up to 3 miles. I just feel this gives connections excuses for the defeat!
Consequently, I’m looking elsewhere, and Glen Ava looks a fascinating runner, the mare is only 6, very unexposed and makes her handicap chase debut off a nice mark.
She previously won a 3 mile Point To Point, making all, on her 4th start and then has raced under rules just the 3 times in hot maiden chases, where she has been outclassed, but more importantly, has been given very tender handling.
Despite the cosy rides in the rear, she still postmarked 92 last time out, over an inadequate 2m 5F and there is undoubtedly more to come!
Now she goes into her first handicap off 88 and stepped up in trip I’m sure we will see a much more prominently ridden horse!
Because she is based with a small trainer, the market has her overpriced at 66/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles, and Quinnbet, who all offer BOG and 5 places, she could easily upset the favourite, or place at huge odds.
I recommend 1 point each way, she is still value at 20/1.
Balbir Du Mathan – 2.15 Navan – 2 Mile 4F Handicap Hurdle – 150/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles – BOG – 5 Places (200/1 Skybet) – 1 Point Each Way.
This 24 runner handicap hurdle is a weak affair, with only one last time out winner, who himself is a 20/1 shot.
There are only a few unexposed types in here and I feel it’s the type of race that could throw up a massive priced winner.
Balbir Du Mathan looks just the type. He is an old boy at 13 years old and is very much on the downgrade, but there are reasons to be optimistic.
He showed good form in his younger days, winning two hurdles and a chase, postmarking a high of 143 at his best.
Connections campaigned him almost exclusively over chases since 2014 and he only managed one win from 25 attempts.
His mark peaked at 137 in 2016 and, unfortunately, when he fell in a chase in December 2018 (123), I feel that left its mark and he has been pulled up in 7 of his last 8 starts (the other a distant 9th of 10).
I know this all looks pretty dreadful, but here is the kicker!!
Balbir Du Mathan has only raced the once over hurdles since 2014. That was in March 2018, over today’s course and distance where he won off a mark of 127, postmarking 132.
Now I know he is older but to me, he has lost his bottle over chases, and he has been minding himself, not putting it all in.
But today he goes back hurdling for the first time since that win and I’m pretty sure he will be very happy about that!
The other massive positive is the change of yard from S J Mahon, who was banned from training for horse welfare issues and has been working at another yard. Balbir Du Mathan also moved to this yard, and I doubt staying with the trainer has been beneficial.
Consequently, a move to the trainer and jockey, J P Bouder, is an excellent move. The horse will probably enjoy the change of scenery and training regime and his old sparkle maybe back.
The fact they try him back over hurdles and could easily reinvigorate him.
The handicapper has also given Balbir Du Mathan a chance today, running off just 97, and with G P Brouder taking the ride, his 7lb claim nets this down to just 90.
This change of discipline, trainer, reduced mark, and return to a winning course and distance, gives me hope that he could run a race for the first time in a while.
I’m recommending 1 point each way at a whopping 150/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles who go 5 places and BOG. Note – he is best priced with Sky at 200/1.
Please take the BOG as he could still drift out further!!
He is still value at 66/1.
