Hi
Please see below my three picks for Saturday:
Hello Sunshine – 4.08 Uttoxeter – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 28/1 Boyles, Quinn, (33/1 Bet365) BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
This looks like a weak handicap, with the market leaders both coming off long layoffs, and no horse winning any of their last two races.
Consequently, it could pay to go for 28/1 shot Hello Sunshine. She is a lightly raced 6 year, with just 8 runs, but she did manage to decisively win a similar strength handicap over course and distance last season.
That was off a mark of 93 and being just 3lb higher today she still looks to have plenty of scope off that mark.
She needs to bounce back from two pulled-up efforts but has excuses as she needed a wind operation after the first run, suggesting her breathing was stopping her. Whilst her last run was on unsuitable heavy going, and she may have needed it after the wind op.
Rex Dingle was on for her victory and is reunited for the first time.
With the good fast ground being ideal for her and temperatures being unseasonably high, Hello Sunshine should feel right at home and put her best foot forward.
At 28/1 with Boyles and Quinn, and Bet365 offering best priced 33/1 BOG we have to get involved and I recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 14/1.
Glen Ava – 1.05 Fairyhouse – 3 Mile 1.5F Handicap Chase – 25/1 Bet365, Boyles BOG (25/1 Betfred) – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Glen Ava last time out and she ran a promising race, staying on late to grab 6th place.
It was a strange effort as the good jockey, JJ Slevin, gave her far too much to do. It was almost as if he didn’t want to get too close to the short-priced favourite good thing that simply bolted up.
We have to give her another chance, especially with blinkers applied for the first time.
Please read my previous write up for more information.
I recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 14/1.
Glen Ava – 3.25 Navan – 3 Mile Handicap chase – 66/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles – BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point each Way.
This 24 runner handicap chase is dominated by the 6/5 favourite, Routine Excellence, who was previously subject of a massive gamble and bolted up in a 2m 3f maiden hurdle.
He postmarked 112 that day and runs here in a handicap chase off a lenient looking mark of 88.
The market is right to keep him on his side, but I always feel very nervous about backing a horse next time out after a gamble, as the money has been won backing at big prices and more often than not, they don’t follow up.
I feel it’s particularly risky as the first time tongue tie applied for his gambled on win has been removed today and he steps up to 3 miles. I just feel this gives connections excuses for the defeat!
Consequently, I’m looking elsewhere, and Glen Ava looks a fascinating runner, the mare is only 6, very unexposed and makes her handicap chase debut off a nice mark.
She previously won a 3 mile Point To Point, making all, on her 4th start and then has raced under rules just the 3 times in hot maiden chases, where she has been outclassed, but more importantly, has been given very tender handling.
Despite the cosy rides in the rear, she still postmarked 92 last time out, over an inadequate 2m 5F and there is undoubtedly more to come!
Now she goes into her first handicap off 88 and stepped up in trip I’m sure we will see a much more prominently ridden horse!
Because she is based with a small trainer, the market has her overpriced at 66/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Boyles, and Quinnbet, who all offer BOG and 5 places, she could easily upset the favourite, or place at huge odds.
I recommend 1 point each way, she is still value at 20/1.
Storm Control – 3.20 Doncaster – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 11/1 Ladbrokes, Coral BOG (12/1 SBK) – 1 Point Each Way.
This is the Skybet chase and is the big handicap of the day.
It’s obviously a competitive heat, but for me, Storm Control is a standout at 11/1.
The gelding has some strong form in the book, winning at Cheltenham (off 137) and finishing 5th in last year’s Kim Muir Chase (at Cheltenham Festival) off a mark of 142.
Kerry Lee is an excellent trainer, but she will be the first to admit her horses were under a cloud in the first half of the season, but the winners have now started to flow.
Storm Control form has replicated Kerry Lee’s fortunes as he was pulled up twice before Christmas, but then came good earlier in January, winning off 132.
He carries a 5lb penalty, but that only pushes him up to 137, so is still on a winning mark.
The icing on the cake is the booking of promising 10lb claimer D McConville, who was on him last time, and I’m sure Kerry Lee has planned his rides to take advantage of the 10lb allowance for this valuable purse.
He should be one of the favourites, but we can back him at 11/1, so I’m recommending point each way.
