Hi
Please see attached my three tips for Thursday’s racing:
Morningside – 2.40 Kelso – 2m 5F Handicap Chase – 28/1 Bet365 Ladbrokes Coral – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
This 5 runner race looks very winnable, with Philip Kirby’s En Meme Temps heading the market after two runners-up efforts.
I always feel Philip Kirby likes to gamble in his horses and is happy to see his favourites get beat, so this is one I’m looking to take on.
Morningside looks over-priced at 28/1. This winning 3-mile pointer has been brought along slowly over inadequate trips over hurdles, he was stepped up to 2m 6F on his handicap hurdle and finished a good second off 100.
He then showed distinct promise on his chase debut, again over an unsuitable 2 miles but flopped on his second and latest start in June 2021 over chases and hasn’t been out since.
Today he steps up to a more suitable 2m 5.5F handicap chase off a reduced mark of just 91 and looks well handicapped.
The gap of 6 months between races looks a positive as he won his 3-mile point to point off a 286-day absence and most of his best form is when fresh.
At 28/1 with Bet365, Ladbrokes, and Coral, who all offer BOG he looks a good bet and I recommend 1 point each way.
Rivers Lad – 5.30 Chelmsford – 7F Handicap – 25/1 Betfair Sportsbook, Sky, Coral who offer 4 places.
I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
Rivers Lad – 5.30 Chelmsford – 7F Handicap – 25/1 Coral, Betfair Sportsbook Sky – 4 Places – 1 point Each Way.
The booking of Tom Marquand catches the eye on Rivers Lad who has been shaping with promise on his last two starts since a break.
He was staying on over 6F and on his latest start they stepped him up to 1 mile where he tracked the leaders, running freely, before fading in the final furlong.
The drop back to 7F looks ideal and from a mark of just 51, he looks very well handicapped considering he was running off 71 back in 2020 (just 10 runs ago).
He seems in better form since his summer 2021 campaign and with a top jockey on board, I can see him winning at tasty odds of 25/1 (28/1 with Bet365).
I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
Tilsworth Lukey – 7.30 Chelmsford – 1m 2F Handicap – 40/1 Coral Ladbrokes Bet365 (50/1) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
His sole victory was over today’s course and distance, and he seems to reserve all his best form for the track and trip.
Tilsworth is a strong puller and likes to be held up off a strong pace, and he will get that today from Ivahunch who went 30 lengths clear on his latest start. There has been money for Ivahunch (25/1 into 8/1) so the market principles, who all like to track, cannot afford to let him loose on the lead.
This is good news as Tilworth Lukey has the highest topspeed rating in the race.
The very good Marco Ghiani takes the ride, and he was on three runs ago when the pair were unlucky to meet serious traffic problems in the home straight which denied him the victory that day (also a strong pace) – finishing a close 4th of 12.
Tilsworth’s last two runs were over 1m 4F and 1m 5F, so we can draw a line through them, and with him coming back to his ideal track/trip, and getting his strong pace, we must get involved at odds of 40/1.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way with Coral and Ladbrokes, and Bet365 offers the best odds of 50/1 – all are BOG 4 places.
Please back him BOG as he may well drift out further.
He is still value at 25/1.
