Hi
Please see my three tips for Friday:
Point of Principle – 4.00 Chepstow – 2m 3.5F Handicap Hurdle – 22/1 Bet365 Ladbrokes Coral – BOG – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
This looks like a good time to back Point of Principal. The 9-year-old has in the past postmarked 143 over hurdles, including an excellent 2nd place at Chepstow’s unique undulating track over today’s distance.
Point Of Principle has also won twice off a mark of 125 and today gets in here off 117.
His connections were running him over 3 miles earlier this season and it very much looked like a tactic to get some weight off his back, which has seen him drop 13lb in the handicap.
He was given a wind operation before the start of this season and he ran like he was still wary of his breathing, pulling up twice.
He was dropped back to his favourite trip of 2m 4f last time and showed much-improved form, seeing out the race well, to finish a good 4th. That was on unfavourable heavy going and a return to a sound surface is very much in his favour.
The good 5lb claimer, Charlie Price, nets his mark down to 112 and he must have a solid chance of winning/placing.
I’m therefore recommending 1 point each way at 22/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, or Betfair Sportsbook, which all offer 4 places.
He is still value at 12/1.
Ecclesiastical – 3.55 Dundalk -5f Handicap – 33/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The favourite, Adam’s Barbour, is on a winning streak, with 4 wins in his last 7 rides. But I think that run will end today as his mark has gone up from 47 to 77 and that last run was hard-fought. He goes up 7lb for that win, plus also loses the benefit of his 5lb claimer, so is effectively 12lb higher.
The one I like at the price is last year’s winner Ecclesiastical. He won this off 79 but is off an 11lb lower mark today and has the benefit of a good 7lb claimer, so is effectively 18lb lower.
I think they have had this race in mind as he had an autumn break and has had three comeback runs, where he has raced up at 6F for his latest without his usual visor.
These look like sharpeners and a means to get a few pounds off and now he drops back to his winning trip and the visor goes back on.
From a good draw and at 33/1 with Bet365 Ladbrokes and Coral we have to get involved, and I recommend 1 point each way.
Rip Rocks Paddy Ok – 4.15 Catterick – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 150/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – BOG – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
Rip Rock Paddy Ok is a massive class dropper and at some point, when his fitness and wellbeing is in place, he is going to bolt up.
He is running today off 77, some 45lb below his highest postmark, and as a relatively young horse, he still has time to find his form.
He is with a small owner-trainer who is getting him fit on the track, so now he is having his third run off a break he has a chance to show some form.
They have applied cheekpieces today, which could help spark him into life, and at the huge odds of 150/1 with three firms who all offer 4 places in this 12 runner field, he looks a good each-way play.
Please bet BOG as he could easily go off 250/1!!
He is still value at 66/1.
Please read my previous write up for reference:
Rip Rocks Paddy OK – 12.15 Catterick – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Bet365, Coral, Boyles – 5 Places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 6-year-old Rip Rocks Paddy OK started on the flat and went hurdling as a 3-year-old juvenile in Ireland. He improved considerably for the switch to hurdling where he ran some big races in hot maidens.
He finished 6th of 19 at Punchestown where he finished close up to the eventual Cheltenham Festival Fred Winter winner. He also backed up this run at Clonmel over 2m 4Fpostmarking 119.
During his time in Ireland, he ran to a postmark high of 122 and moved to Britain on a mark of 120.
After 4 disappointing runs Rip Rocks was sold on to a small UK Trainer, Kevin Hunter, where he proceeded to run poorly this year in all 5 outings.
I’ve been tracking the horse since the summer and I noted Rip Rocks had a tongue tie applied whilst in Ireland which indicates a breathing issue, but when he arrived in the UK the tongue tie was removed for all runs.
He travelled and jumped well enough, but at the business end, he fell away tamely each time which is consistent with a breathing issue.
Rip Rocks was given a wind operation after these 5 UK runs and has had 4 months off.
He returns today for his first outing off a much-reduced mark of 88, some 32lb lower than in March 2021.
Now his breathing has been improved he should be able to finish his races and take advantage of that reduced mark.
Rips Rocks have put up some of his best runs when fresh, so this all looks good, but the bet does come with some considerable risks attached.
The Trainer Kevin Hunter hasn’t had a winner under rules in 29 attempts. So, we are taking on trust that he has Rips Rock fit enough to do himself justice the first time out. On the plus side he isn’t a big unit, so wouldn’t take as much work to get fit.
The other big issue is the wind operation. It can work on the first run, but sometimes the horse doesn’t trust his breathing and won’t let himself go through that initial pain barrier. Once the horse gains confidence that he can breathe, then he can run better, usually on his second start.
We just won’t know how Rip Rocks Paddy Ok will react.
It would be simpler to just wait for his second run to back him, but that might be too late. He could win today or run an encouraging race and place. In the next run, he could end up being at the head of the market and be of very little value to us.
It’s all about the price and Rip Rocks Paddy OK can be backed at 66/1 with Bet365, Coral and Boyles, who all offer 5 places. Most importantly they also offer the best odds guaranteed, which in this instance is critical. With the Trainers, bad profile Rip Rocks is very likely to drift in this big field to maybe 100/1-150/1.
Our money will impact his price, but I doubt there will be any other significant sustained bets so he will drift near the off.
On this basis, we have to take the risk on his fitness and wellbeing, and I recommend 1 point each way at 66/1 BOG.
He is still value at 25/1.
