Hi
Please see below my three picks for Wednesday:
Wells Gold – 4.40 Market Rasen – 2m 5F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Sky Paddy Power BetVictor – 1 point Each Way – 4 Places
I have put up Wells Gold before, please see the previous write-ups below:
I’m not giving up on him, as he is very well handicapped and has only run a handful of times since a long absence from injury.
Today he returns to Market Rasen where he runs well, over the trip he won before his injury.
Both tongue tie and cheekpieces are deployed again which is a positive.
The fast ground will suit, all I hope is that they don’t get any more than the forecast 4mm of rain.
He is 3lb out of the handicap, but a 5lb claimer helps to offset that and is 12lb lower than his previous winning mark (including the jockey’s claim).
The 66/1 on offer is just too big and I, therefore, recommend 1 Point each way with 4 places on offer from Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor.
He is still value at 25/1.
Please see my previous write-ups for more background information:
Wells Gold – 1.20 Leicester – 2m 6.5F Handicap Chase – 50/1 Sky Paddy Power BetVictor – 4 Places.
Well’s Gold ran well for a long way last time out, only weakening late on. This was very much a step in the right direction as his baseline fitness is starting to build.
Considering he previously had 3 years off with only 1 run his form is starting to look encouraging.
Its interesting connections have added a tongue-tie today as horses can regularly suffer from a breathing issue after such a long time off.
His breathing must have been an issue on his last start which means that run can be upgraded. He was only beaten 16 lengths off a mark of 79 where he postmarked 76, so that was very promising.
Today he drops 4lb to a mark of 75 and is stepped up to 2F, which should bring out more improvement.
The good/soft, good in places ground is ideal for him and with Harry Bannister retaining the ride this looks like a great opportunity.
We can back wells Gold at 50/1, which I find astonishing considering he was only beaten 16 lengths last time out off a 4lb higher mark. So, we must take advantage and back him 1 point each way with Sky, Paddy Power or BetVictor, who all offer 4 places in this 13-runner event.
He still looks value at 20/1.
Wells Gold – 12.15 Southwell – 3m 2F Handicap Chase – 66/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook & BetVictor – 1 Point Each Way.
This 3m 2F handicap chase places a great emphasis on stamina and it’s unusual to see a race where not one horse is a proven winner over the trip. Even the two short-priced favourites are taking a big step up so there is every chance of an outsider winning this.
The one I like at a price is the 10-year-old Wells Gold, he started life as a 4-year-old in 3-mile Point to Points and demonstrated ability by winning one and placing in others.
He moved under rules for the very good Fergal O’Brien and after some quiet runs in maidens, he started to show his form, winning a 2m 5F handicap hurdle off 83.
Fergal soon switched him to chasing and took his hurdles mark of 90. The bookmakers must have intelligence in Fergal’s yard as the market always seems to know when his horses are expected to run well and Wells Gold went off 3/1 favourite in a 12-runner handicap chase.
Now he didn’t win, but he jumped well and stayed on strongly for 3rd. It was the 2m 5F trip that was simply too short for him, only losing by 4 lengths.
Bearing in mind he won a point to point as a young 5-year-old and had stayed on in other P2Ps. Then it’s fair to say now as a mature horse he has plenty of stamina to see out today’s trip. This is further backed up by his breeding.
Now as a 6-year-old Well’s Gold looked to have a promising staying chasing career in front of him with him set to be rated 100 – 130, but injury has cruelly denied him. He was pulled up on his next start and must have done a tendon as he was sold on to a small P2P trainer.
They started his rehabilitation and kept him off for a year before bringing him back to the track, but that must have been too soon as he was then off for a further 2 years!!
Connections have been incredibly patient and in August this year, Wells Gold returned to the track over a wholly inadequate 2m 2F in a handicap hurdle race where he was allowed to just pop round at the back. He jumped well but was outpaced and never ridden out and was only beaten 38 lengths, postmarking 58. This might not sound great, but this was a very pleasing rehabilitation run under the circumstances.
He has been off another 4 months, but I don’t mind that as he will be over the dreaded bounce factor that can mean a horse underperforms on the second quick run back off a long absence.
What I like about him today is the switch back to chasing, where he remains hugely unexposed. Connections have stepped him right up to 3m 2F and have reapplied the cheekpieces that he wore for his best form with Fergal’s yard.
I read some race comments and Well’s Gold is a lazy horse who will only just do enough and the cheekpieces just help sharpen him up.
These weren’t on for his reappearance in August 2021 and I’m glad they have chosen today as the time to reapply them.
This coincides with the eye-catching booking of the very good Charlie Deutsch who is one of the best chaser jockeys on the circuit (No 1 jockey with Venetia Williams) and has a 19% strike rate over the big obstacles.
Reading between the lines, I suspect Well’s Gold glass legs flared up after his August outing, without wanting to push him too soon, they have kept him ticking over for the last 4 months. So hopefully his base fitness is now in place.
If he weren’t race fit, I think they would be keeping him over hurdles for another prep run, probably over a short trip, so they step him up to 3m 2F and send him chasing with a top jockey on a very good sign.
Well’s Gold looks well enough handicapped off a mark of 77 on his hurdles form and is hugely unexposed over chases that suit him. Amazingly we can back him at huge odds of 66/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor and get 4 places in this 12-runner field, this is a tremendous value!
The big risk is his fitness over the trip, but I’m very much prepared to take the risk at the price, so I recommend 1 point each way at 66/1.
Breaking Waves – 2.55 Market Rasen – 2M 7F Handicap Hurdle – 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 (best priced 20/1) – BOG – 1 Point Each way
The 8-year-old Breaking Waves has been admirably consistent quickly rising to a handicap mark around 130 and winning three hurdle races over 2m 4F.
Over the next two seasons, he held a handicap mark in the mid-120s and was placed in numerous races over 2m 4F up to 3 miles.
Breaking Waves ran well in the Summer of 2021, and after a break returned to action in November 2021, but after twice finishing second he put in two lesser performances and was off the track again until March this year, where he was pulled up.
That last run isn’t necessarily bad news, as any horse can be forgiven a poor run, especially after a mini-break.
Also looking back at his previous form, whilst he has been super consistent, he did pull up before, and then went on to win his next race.
The handicapper has also dropped Breaking Waves a few pounds to 118, and whilst this isn’t a huge drop if he runs to his consistent postmarks in the 120’s then he has a good chance of winning/placing.
Significantly, Darryl Jacob returns to the saddle who has an excellent record on him of 122334. These are all off marks in the mid 120’s.
We can back Breaking Waves at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral (Best priced 20/1 with Bet365), and that looks like a rock-solid each-way play, so I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Loving Pearl – 8.30 Kempton – 1m 4F Handicap – 50/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – BOG – 1 Point Each way
The 6-year-old Loving Pearl is a fascinating contender in this run of the mill 9-runner class 6 handicap.
As a younger horse, he was trained by Ralph Beckett and ran with promise in his 2-year-old maidens over 7F and 1 mile postmarking a high of 66.
He only ran in one handicap over a mile off a mark of 72 (postmarked 63) before being sold by Qatar Racing to more humble connections associated with trainer Jack Berry.
Now, this looks like a shrewd purchase by Jack berry who knows Loving Pearl’s family well as he trained two of her siblings to win multiple races over middle distances, including 1m 4F races on Polytrack surfaces off marks up to 85.
As a three-year-old Jack Berry quite rightly stepped the horse up as he is bred for middle/staying trips, but the horse just wasn’t right. In his four runs, he was just settled in rear and given the quietest of rides, never getting involved.
This saw his handicap mark plummet from 71 to 48. Whatever the problem was, he certainly managed to get Loving Pearl well handicapped!!
Unfortunately, the horse then suffered an injury and was off the track for almost three years (942 days) and only returned to action on 2 March 2022.
After such a long time off you can never expect too much, and from the widest of draws the jockey just dropped him in at the back, went wide around all the bends and after minimal assistance from the saddle was only beaten 8 lengths, postmarking 40 off a mark of 48. That was also over an inadequate 1m 2F.
Now for me, this was a real step forward and if he doesn’t bounce today, and just comes on slightly for the run, then he is in with a cracking chance at the weights.
Today he is stepped up to a much more suitable trip of 1m 4F and runs off the basement mark of just 45 on a Polytrack surface that his siblings enjoyed, and with an eye-catching jockey booking of David Egan who will hopefully ride the horse more prominently from a better draw, we could see a big win.
It may well be the horse needs a few more runs to fully regain his fitness and wellbeing, but off such a low mark, with conditions to suit and a top jockey deployed we must back him at huge odds of 50/1.
He is still value at 12/1.
