Hi
It’s the first day of the Aintree Festival and I have five picks for you today:
Actival – 4.05 Aintree – 2m 5F Foxhunters Chase – 100/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Quinn- BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The Foxhunters is always a real spectacle over the famous Aintree fences. This isn’t a handicap, so it favours the classier types, but in the last 10 years, it’s also thrown up 100/1 & 66/1 winners.
The market is dominated by Jetts, who contested Grade 1’s as a younger horse (now 11) and is owned by the Waley-Cowen’s who have a fantastic record of wins over these fences at this Grand National meeting. Sam Waley-Cowen is a brilliant rider over the big fences, so they are worthy favourites.
The one I want to take him on with is Actival. Now 12, he is very much a veteran, but three 12-year-olds have won this in the last 10 years, so that won’t be a barrier to success. Especially when you consider he too has competed in Grade 1 & 2’s and postmarked a high of 156. This intermediate trip is Actival’s optimum and has been placed in the Cheltenham Festival Coral Cup off 147 and the good/soft ground is his ideal going.
This compares reasonably well with Jetts who has a postmark high of 163, and his best postmark in the past two years is 152, with his second-best at 136.
I would expect the winner of this race to postmark around the 140-145 mark, so both can run to a winning mark.
They are the best two horses in the race based upon historical postmarks so it’s interesting that Jett’s is a 3/1 favourite and Actival is 100/1.
I know Actival looks to have deteriorated over the past 18 months, but he has been racing over 3 miles of late and he is much better over 2m 5F jumping from the front, which is the ideal place to be over the Aintree fences which will help keep them out of trouble.
Actival has experience over the Aintree fences, but it didn’t go well, finishing down the field, but he can be excused that run as he was badly hampered at the first when a horse fell in front of him and he was never travelling after that, but at least he jumped round (he is generally a sound jumper).
Actival is well worth a bet, and I recommend 1 point each way at 100/1, paid to 5 places.
He is still value at 33/1.
Bun Doran – 4.40 Aintree – 2 Mile Handicap Chase – 25/1 William Hill, Paddy Power (28/1), Betfair Sportsbook (best priced 28/1) – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
My regulars know I am keen on Bun Doran, and feel he still has a nice handicap in him off a mark of 134.
He won last time out, and I was expecting him to go to the Grand Annual, but that must have come too quick for him, so this looks a good option.
His last win was quite impressive considering he was badly hampered three fences out, losing plenty of ground at a critical stage of the race, but he still had enough to get up against a fair field.
This is a competitive race, but Bun Doran is thrown in on his 3rd in the Queen Mother a couple of years back, and now he is in form his mark of 134 is still exploitable.
At 22/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power, with Betfair Sportsbook going a best-priced 25/1 he looks a rock-solid each-way play on ground he will relish.
He is still value at 14/1
Miss Marinette – 1.27 Taunton – 2m Handicap Hurdle – 40/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, BOG
Last year in National Hunt flat races Miss Marinette acquitted herself pretty well, postmarking 91 & 96 at Taunton.
This season she hasn’t fared so well in maiden hurdles postmarking a high of just 78.
She’s run in one handicap hurdle, but this was another no show, and I’m glad in a way they have needed to give her a wind operation, which has been inhibiting her performances.
With the wind now sorted, it’s just a case of whether or not it works the first time, or if she needs some runs to gain her confidence.
Running off a low mark of just 74, if it does click the first time, she must go close, and I will kick myself if I don’t back her at tasty looking odds of 40/1.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 20/1.
Moonlit Warrior – 6.15 Chelmsford – 1m 4F Handicap – Bet365 Ladbrokes Coral, 888 (best price 17/2) – BOG – 2 Point Win
The three-year-old Moonlit Warrior is a stoutly bred individual and has just run the three mandatory times in Newmarket maidens.
He looked a big backward sort who ran green and stayed on, never dangerous, over 7f and 1 mile.
With a winter on his back and running in his first handicap off a fair looking mark of 56, he looks sure to improve for the step up to 1m 4F.
The big question is whether or not he will be fit enough first time out to be competitive.
I’m prepared to take a chance from a good yard.
He might not be ready first time up, so I’m just going to advise a 2 point win.
He is still value at 11/2.
Eltico – 4.13 Limerick – 2m 5F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 (best priced 40/1), BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The nine-year-old Eltico hasn’t been to the races much, having 7 runs over hurdles and another over chases.
He has looked, more of an Irish handicap project, as his best piece of form came on his first run in a handicap where he was settled in last and ran wide throughout and stayed on strongly to finish only 14 lengths away from the winner in tenth place (off a mark of 87).
The Irish don’t have to mention in their racing about any wind operations, but I’m sure Eltico has had one as four races ago it was reported he made a respiratory noise.
His subsequent weak finished when he went over to Ayr two runs ago, which suggests to me the wind op was then carried out as he has time off, before having another run in mid-March where he stayed on, never nearer over 2 miles.
Reading between the lines I feel now the tongue tie goes on and they step him up in trip we could see a much better performance from him.
He currently sits at 25/1 with Ladbrokes, Coral and best-priced 40/1 with Bet365 (all BOG) and looks a nice 1 point each-way play.
He is still value at 20/1.
Please back with BOG (if you can) as he may well drift.
