The usual Tuesday roar that erupts as the Supreme Hurdle starts us off on day 1 at Cheltenham Festival will be sadly missing, but we are lucky to be able to enjoy the Festival from home and I for one still feel all the excitement associated with 4 days of the best racing action in the world.
The big race of the opening day is the Champion Hurdle, and we are in for a real treat. It looks a stronger running than last year, so the reigning Champion, Epatante will have to be at her best to see off the challengers.
Key Trends for the Champion Hurdle 2021
5 year olds tend to struggle, with only Espoir D’allen (benefitted from fallers and underperformers from the top 4 in the betting) and Katchit (won a weak renewal) winning this century. The stat gets worse going back further as you have to go back to 1985 when See You Then, won the first of his three Champion Hurdles. This years 5 year olds are Goshen, French dark horse James Du Berlais and Aspire Tower.
Only two 9 years old have won since 2000, these being Rooster Booster and Hurricane Fly. This year’s oldies are Not So Sleepy (9 years old) and Petit Mouchoir (10 years old)
By far the most popular age group are the 6, 7, and 8 years who have won old have by the far the best record in the race, winning 80% of the time.
Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have dominated this race since the turn of the century. Nicky has reigning champion Epatante, and Willie has Sharjah and James Du Berlais.
This is a good race for favourites with 6 of the last 10 winning.
Going Description for Champion Hurdle 2021
This always plays a major factor as top of the ground horses rarely get a chance to show their best form as the ground is always best case soft, good to soft in places . The ground staff usually water to make sure it starts with soft in the description, so it does not dry out to be good to firm by Friday for the Gold Cup.
At the time of writing the ground has dried to good, good/soft in places, with a belt of rain due Thursday/Friday likely to drop around 15mm on the track. It’s then looking dry thereafter all next week.
It could be an unusual circumstance by Tuesday, insofar as that the course won’t be able to add any additional watering on Monday due to the huge amount of moisture still in the ground from weeks of torrential waterlogging on track. So ironically the meeting might start on the fastest ground for many years, and it could be just good/soft all over. We should be able to firm up the description over the next few days and an update will be made for you.
It should be remembered that no meetings have been held at Cheltenham since December due to cancelled, waterlogged meetings, so the ground will be fresh, perfect, with a nice bounce to it.
It will be fair ground to all but will favour the speed horses over the soft ground specialists.
Pace Angle in the Champion Hurdle 2021
There is no shortage of pace in the race, Not So Sleepy, goes crazy fast but is a strong stayer and can sustain a strong pace (alongside For Pleasure if he turns up). They will in all likelihood tow the field along the first mile. With Aspire Tower, Goshen, Jason the Militant and Petit Mouchoir all other prominent candidates. This will make it a proper test of speed over the first mile.
The pace will remain unrelenting in the second mile, there will be no chance of a lull in the pace, as Goshen, Silver Streak and Aspire Tower will take it on mid race in a bid to take the sting out of the closers.
It will be really interesting to see how Honeysuckle copes with this out and out gallop.
The speedier horses, Epatante, Abacadabras and Sharjah will get a great tow through the race.
The Main Contenders:
Honeysuckle – 7 year old mare – Form: 1/1111/1111-11 – 2/1 Bet365
A truly admirable mare who remains unbeaten in her 10 starts. Last season she only just won the Irish Champion Hurdle and connections shrewdly ran her in the Mare Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival where she won well , showing good tactical speed three out to stay on strongly up the hill and beat Benie Des Dieux.
This year she scrapped home in the Hatton’s Grace, before showing much more speed and slick jumping in the Irish Champion Hurdle to win impressively by 10 lengths.
She deserves her place at the head of the market. Her 7lb mares allowance will certainly be needed here.
Epatante – 7 year old mare – Form: 211/119/111-12 – 10/30 Bet365
The reigning Champion who won well last year in what looked a substandard event. She gained a good position behind the leaders and came through quickening up the hill twice to take it comfortably.
She followed that up with a visually impressive win in the Fighting Fifth, but that race rather fell apart when Not So Sleepy took out Silver Streak, leaving the usual hold up horse Sceau Royal in front. Epatante cruised past him up the run looking mightily impressive in the process.
She went into the Christmas Hurdle a heavy odds on favourite, but never looked happy from the off and was beaten into second by Silver Streak who did it from the front. Excuses were flying around saying she was in season and then it transpired she was treated for a kissing spine.
The noises coming from the yard are positive about her wellbeing and have to be taken on trust.
Epatante did flop in the 2019 Mares hurdle so she is not bullet proof but is clearly classy and the drying ground is very much in her favour.
As with Honeysuckle the 7lb mares allowance will be needed more this year than last.
Goshen – 5 year old – Form: 111U-01 – 100/30 Bet365
Goshen burst onto the jumps scene after coming from the flat and made a huge impression in the Triumph Hurdle leading by over 10 lengths with the race at his mercy before crashing out at the last in a freak fall.
The form of that race looks strong with Allmankind 3rd favourite in the Arkle and Aspire Tower prominent in the betting for the Champion.
Goshen ran on the flat in the summer and didn’t win either of his two races, indeed these runs were both at a lower level than he achieved the previous year.
He missed some early season targets before flopping badly in the International Hurdle and it looked like the Champion Hurdle dream was over, in what is a notoriously difficult transition year as 5 year old.
However that all changed in February where he was visually impressive in the Kingwell hurdle against Song For Someone who had beaten him in the International. Goshen has subsequently been smashed in from 25/1 into near favourite. Whilst this was a fantastic performance the true merit of the result can’t be taken on face value as Song for Someone didn’t travel well through the race and underperformed, plus the time of the race wasn’t fast on the clock. Nevertheless it was still a class performance by the 5 year old on heavy ground he loves.
His class is unquestionable and could be the first proper freak 5 year old since See You Then in the 1980’s.
Abacadabras – 7 year old – Form: 1O4/211212-2152 -10/1 Bet365
He has been unlucky to run up behind exceptional horses. He finished 3rd to Envoi Allen in the National Hunt Flat race Cheltenham Festival 2019 , then second, again to Envoi Allen, in the Grade 1 Royal Bond novice hurdle. That was followed with a brilliant second in the Supreme Novice hurdle where he was touched off by the monster that is Shishkin. What was particularly impressive was the way the pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the rest, with most of this distance being accrued in the duel up the run in. That was on ground too soft for him, so it can be up graded.
This season has seen some solid performances with an early win against Saint Roi and Jason the Militant, but he was firmly put in his place at Christmas by Sharjah and in the Irish Champion hurdle by Honeysuckle, both of these runs were on soft ground.
There are excuses for the Christmas run, as he scoped badly, and noises have been made he wasn’t fully 100% in the Irish, with Elliot’s string still under a bit of a cloud.
He will enjoy the sounder surface and fast pace and can’t easily discounted back at a track where he showed he comes well up the hill.
Sharjah – 8 year old – Form: 11F7846/31311B/4162-13 – 16/1 Bet365
With an official rating of 164 he is the joint highest official rating of all runners (after the 7lb mare allowance is taken into consideration he is joint 3rd highest).
He has shown top class more than once, but this has usually been at Leopardstown over the last two Christmas’. A replication of that form would make him one of the favourites rather than his current 16/1 price.
He again could not back up his slick victory by going down third in the Irish Champion hurdle behind Honeysuckle and Abacadabras.in February.
He bounced back to chase home Epatante in last year’s Champion Hurdle which was some performance considering he was ridden cold last in a big field and just had too much ground to make up in the final furlong, that was also on ground slower than he would prefer.
Today’s smaller field and guaranteed strong pace will be ideal for him and he will relish the faster ground conditions that he hasn’t had all year.
James Du Berlais – 5 year Old – Form: F996212-121212 – 20/1 Bet365
The dark horse in the field. The bookies will love it if this one wins as he will be a virtual skinner in the Antepost market.
Trained by Willie Mullin’s, he has top class juvenile form in France and is owned by big connections who spend a lot of big money and they are due to land a Cheltenham Grade 1 winner again soon.
This guy might be it, but this will probably come one year too early for him as he is only 5 years old.
His French form is very strong and if Willie Mullins has sent him over then you simply can’t discount him.
The Others
I do hope the start goes well and we get to see Not So Sleepy going off at a lightening lick in front. A small part of me thinks he could slip the field and then win like Make a Stand did all those years ago. It’s just a shame he is 9.
Jason the Militant looks just shy of this class and the fast ground will be against him, plus he won’t get a chance to dominate this field from the front.
Silver Streak looks to have improved at the age of 8 with an unlucky second to Song for Someone in the International, but then bettered that with an all the way success against Epatante over Christmas. This was a change of tactics going from the front, which he will struggle to emulate, but he has finished 3rd in a Champion, so could be the horse that takes it up after Not So Sleepy folds.
Aspire Tower is another 5 year old who has excelled this year. After jumping terribly in the Triumph last year he has built on previous impressive wins and is another 5 year old that looks potentially up this class. Especially after beating Abacadabras by 4 lengths at the start of the season and finishing second to Sharjah over Christmas.
Conclusion
This is an absolute cracker!
It’s amazing what a difference a year can make to a division. Last year it looked weak, but its been filled up with lots of classy animals, many with huge potential for improvement.
I’m basing my conclusion that the ground will be genuinely good/soft.
With so much early pace on quick ground I’m fearful that Honeysuckle might not keep up the required pace in the first mile and although her hurdling was much slicker last time, she might just get out paced. Her only saving grace might be if they go too hard and there is a pace collapse as her stamina would properly kick in and might get her out of trouble.
I think Goshen is a freak and will in all likelihood be the best of these in time, but I fear the ground will be too fast for him, to me he is soft ground dependent (until more evidence changes my opinion!!) and will get outbattled for the lead throughout. Next year, being a year older, on slightly softer ground will see his chances improve significantly, but this year I just feel too much is against him.
I think the race is being run to suit a closer in this smallish field who likes good ground, so Epatante (100/30), Sharjah (16/1) and Abacadabras (10) are three that interest me the most.
It’s so close between them that it’s all about the jockey and who executes the best ride. I fear Epatante’s chances are being diminished by Barry Geraghty’s retirement and whilst I like Aiden Coleman, I never feel he is at his best on 2 milers. The cloud over Epatante’s wellbeing is also niggling with me and so I find myself left with the choice between Abacadabras and Sharjah.
Both will close, both have the best jockey’s in the field with Paul Townsend on Sharjah and Jack Kennedy on Abacadabras.
I’m going to side with Abacadabras, with his yard in better form since Christmas and the Dublin Festival, this has just swayed it for me.
He will get the stronger pace he has been crying out for on ground that will see him improve. Jack Kennedy has been getting used to riding him. He reminds me a bit of Harchibald (OMG!!), insofar that he travels supremely well but doesn’t like to be in front too long. Jack needs to get there late, ideally hitting the front half way up the run in, winning by less than a length (geez, that will be exciting, and it might even exercise my nightmare Harchibald demons!!!), lets pray Jack rides him out sooner than Paul Carberry did on Harchibald!!!
I’m also going to have a saver on Sharjah as I’m struggling to split them, and he is huge value at 16/1.
Abacadabras – 10/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
Sharjah – 16/1 Bet365 – 0.5 point each way.
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Abacadabras
- Sharjah
- Honeysuckle
