Hi,
Please see my one tip for Wednesday:
Sol Plum Creek – 1.50 Uttoxeter – 2M 7F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Skybet – 5 places – 1 point each way.
Noel Williams is a decent jumps trainer with a fair 12% strike rate for winners and 35% for horses to place, he is in good recent form with his only runner in the last 14 days winning.
He runs Sol Plum Creek in this low grade 2m 7F handicap hurdle and looks an intriguing runner on his handicap debut.
Sol Plum Creek has a nice jumps pedigree being sired by Canyon Creek who has produced many good jumpers in France. With his dam being a very stoutly bred German horse who will produce horses that enjoy a staying trip.
Sol Plum Creek has only had three NH flat races where he postmarked a fair high of 95 on good ground and on his three maiden hurdle runs you could see he jumped well but was definitely out for experience only as he set off in last, ran wide round all the bends and was allowed to fade under minimal assistance from the saddle.
His best postmark of 72 was on his debut when he ran at today’s Uttoxeter track, he was subsequently fitted with a tongue tie which indicates that first run was hindered by poor breathing.
Those maiden runs were over 2m 4F but for his handicap debut connections have stepped him up to 2m 7F which is sure to suit.
He is officially rated 65 but has to run off 74 so is 9lb out of the handicap. Whilst it would be nice if he could run off 65 I’m not overly concerned as he is so unexposed and his NH flat postmark of 95 indicates he has much more to give now he is sent handicapping.
What is very interesting is the application of cheekpieces today as Noel William’s has won 2 races from 3 starts this year with first time cheekpieces.
It’s certainly a tactic worth noting and following at his current price of 66/1, especially with Sol Plum Creek being on his handicap debut, over a trip a new trip that is bound to improve him, and on ground and a track that he likes.
Sol Plum Creek sits at 66/1 with Skybet (and Befair Sportsbook) where we can get 5 places in this 15 runner event. I’m therefore recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.
