Hi,
Please see attached my two tips for Friday:
Twinstar – 11.55 Doncaster – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 28/1 Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power (33/1 Bet365) 1 Point Each Way.
Noel Williams’ 7 year old Twinstar has been decent both on the flat (where he is rated 92) and over hurdles where he has been rated as high as 130.
Twinstar has won 4 races (2 flat) including 2 hurdles races with a handicap win off 115 last season.
They found some improvement over hurdles last year with the application of cheekpieces and a tongue tie and significantly Twinstar ran a cracking second last year at this Doncaster meeting in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 130.
After a couple of runs this year (where he improved considerably on his latest start) Twinstar returns to this Doncaster meeting in a Class 4 Handicap Hurdle off a reduced mark of 118 with the good 7lb claimer Joe Anderson netting his mark down to an attractive looking 111.
Connections looked to have targeted this meeting with Twinstar. Bringing his fitness along through two prep races and now switch the cheekpieces for blinkers. This looks like positive intent and with the ground an ideal good/soft he looks a good bet at 28/1.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way at 28/1 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power. But snap up the 33/1 with Bet365!!
He is still value at 14/1.
Vetoncall – 12.55 Bangor – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 14/1 Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook- 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way,
The 9 year old Vetoncall has only raced 10 times in his life. He was successful in a 3 mile Point To Point and also finished a close second to a horse now rated 116 (off level weights).
These runs indicate Vetoncall would rate under rules somewhere around the 95 to 110 mark.
He ran under rules in his three maiden hurdles and a novice chase, postmarking a modest high of just 78.
What I find very insightful is that Vetoncall had a year off before he then ran on his handicap debut (off a mark off 83) and went off a well backed 3/1 favourite but ran below expectations. He again ran poorly on his next start and hasn’t run since.
Today he makes his first appearance for almost two years and comes here off a lowly mark of just 79 (6lb out of the handicap) with the very good James Best in the saddle.
Connections clearly felt Vetoncall was well handicapped and could win after a year off, so I think there is a strong chance he could be lined up for a win today.
He won his point on soft/heavy, so today’s soft ground will be ideal, and whilst I would prefer him over 3 miles and not the 2m 4F. This shouldn’t be barrier to success.
Vetoncall’s mark of 79 compares very favourably to the mark of 95-110 I assessed for his Point 2 Point runs.
We have to take his fitness on trust, but there are plenty of examples this time of year where fragile chasers win first time out in low grade handicap chases.
I’m therefore prepared to take a chance at 14/1 – 1 point each way
He is still value at 10/1.
