Hi
Please see my three picks for Thursday:
Susie Javea – 6.00 Newcastle – 1m Handicap 16/1 Sky, Coral, Bet365 (18/1) – 4 Places – 1 Point each way.
Susie Javea looked to have become a Southwell fibresand specialist after rattling up four wins on the surface.
Connections must have been gutted when the fibresand was ripped up and replaced with Tapeta.
This seemed to leave Susie Javea looking badly handicapped on other surfaces and has been in the doldrums somewhat since.
I don’t feel this is the case as she has shown sound form on tapeta without getting her head in front, and the recent form will have more to do with a breathing problem and running over longer trips than suits her best.
The last time out was an eye-catching run, usual jockey Harry Russell settled in third on the rail and travelled strongly but was stuck in a pocket up the home straight and only went down by a length and a half. The race commentary hasn’t picked this up (a good thing!!) and I feel she could easily have won.
Today she is brought back to her winning distance of a mile and a tongue tie has been applied and Hollie Doyle comes in for the ride.
At 16/1 she is too big.
I recommend 1 point each way.
Paladian Jewel – 1.50 Thurles – 2m 5F Beginners Chase – 100/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – 1 Point Each Way.
This race is restricted to horses without a win over chases and no more than two starts over chases.
Throughout the season Irish beginners chases are generally really hot affairs with graded horses battling it out from Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, and Henry De Bromhead’s powerful yards.
This race looks weaker as none of those big yards has a runner here and it’s open to a smaller yard to gain a win.
Looking at the market principles it looks like a run to 110+ will win or place in the race.
Paladian Jewel sits as the 100/1 outsider in the field and that just doesn’t make sense to me. He started life with five runs in 3-mile Point to Points and gradually improved with experience. He finished second in his last Point and that is looking a good race, with the third winning a point next time out, the third going under rules and postmarking 113, and the fourth now postmarking 125.
On this evidence alone it tells me Paladian could easily be good enough to be a 115-130 rated horse.
He has run under rules in three maiden hurdles, all over an inadequate 2-miles and has run promisingly. Travelling strongly and jumping hurdles well, but like a chaser (giving them too much air). He was outpaced and still stayed on cosily without having a gun put to his head.
The second run was behind Three Strip Life, who is lining up in the Supreme Hurdle, and he was only beaten 25 lengths (again tenderly handled).
We don’t even have to forgive his last hurdles start as he raced widest throughout and when the pace quickened the jockey didn’t move a muscle and he drifted to the back of the field.
Despite the educational rides, he still postmarked 95 and 89, so really doesn’t need to improve too much to get involved.
He looks a fascinating contender today as he goes chasing for the first time under rules and connections have stepped him up to a much more suitable 2m 5F.
Most importantly Paladian Jewel visually looks like a chaser. He is tall, strong and jumps well and should improve considerably for the switch to larger obstacles.
The big burning question is will connections really go for it, or just get some more experience and wait for handicaps?
I don’t know that answer, but I do know he has enough ability to win this and will relish a fence and trip, and at 100/1 we are getting a huge price to find out.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way at 100/1
He is still value at 33/1/
Rogans Fancy – 5.40 Southwell – 1m 4F Classified (0-50) Stakes – 40/1 Ladbrokes Coral Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way – 3 Places
I put up Rogans Fancy last time when he was stepped up in trip on his handicap debut. Unfortunately, the positive ride and ensuing pace duel with another meant he went too fast and faded in the home straight. It was still a creditable run.
We know he has stamina as he stayed on in 2-mile NH flat races, so it’s just about getting the pace right.
Rogans Fancy is still inexperienced and unexposed on the flat and has posted some fair marks at Southwell over shorter and is second best-rated on-track performances.
Today he has been dropped 4lb to 50 which qualifies him to run in a basement classified stakes for horses rated 50 and under. The race conditions make Rogans Fancy best in at the weights, yet we can back him as the 40/1 outsider!!
This is a massive pricing error by the Bookmakers, and we must take advantage.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 10/1.
See my previous write up for more info:
Rogans Fancy – 5.00 Newcastle – 1m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 33/1 Coral, Boyles – BOG – 4 Places – (Ladbrokes 33/1) – 1 Point Each Way.
Rogans Fancy started life in three 2 mile National Hunt flat races and posted some fairly consistent figures with a postmark high of 88.
Connections decided to switch him to the flat and in his 3 maidens they have played around with his distances bringing him back to 1 mile and 7F, and under the circumstances did well to postmark 51 over an inadequate mile.
The handicapper has allotted a mark of 54 and he steps up to 1m 4F which should see a much-improved performance.
From a good draw, I’m hopeful of a big run and at odds of 33/1, he looks superb each-way play.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 20/1.
