Hi,
Please see my two tips for Friday’s racing:
Gwan So – 1.40 Doncaster – 7F Listed Stakes – 50/1 Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
This race is always won by a horse that goes on to win in Group company, but no superstars have won. It usually takes a postmark of between 104 and 110 to win this.
There are your usual strong connections in the field. Shadwell Stud is represented by second favourite Ribhi, who won on debut (postmarking 90), but is inexperienced for a race like this.
Godolphin have Noble Truth who won a Newmarket maiden but was beaten 4 lengths in a Group 3. He is respected with a postmark of 94 but Godolphin usually have their horses ready on debut as a juvenile, so I don’t see him progressing enough to win this.
Andrew Balding has the favourite, Hoo Ya Mal, who won the valuable Convivial Maiden at York on his second start. That race throws up good horses and he is a worthy favourite, but he only postmarked 91 and has to progress further to win this.
Aiden O’Brien doesn’t have any runners in the race , but Ireland do have a representative in Gwan So who is trained by Richard John O’Brien. He has only sent 4 runners to the UK in the past 5 years, so you have to take note of him travelling over for this Listed race. One of those 4 runners have won, which is a fair return.
On the face of it he doesn’t look good enough having run in 4 Irish maidens and is still looking for his first win. However that only tells half the story.
He was very green on his first two starts over 6F. However on his third start he ran well over 7F to finish 3rd only losing by a length to a subsequent winner, Confident Star, who is entered for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes (top Irish 2 year old event). Gwan So was 3.5 lengths ahead of the 4th who went onto postmark 90 on his next run. Gwan pulled well clear of the rest.
On his latest start he was went off a well backed 9/2 shot and came second behind Corviglia, who looks a very decent Harrington prospect, who himself is a short priced favourite to win a Listed race this Saturday. Gwan So pulled 3.5 lengths clear of the 101 rated Tuwaiq and 6 lengths clear of Snapius who has postmarked 83 & 88 in the past.
I think both these last races have been underrated by the official ratings (and RPRs), especially his last run as they have Gwan postmarking just 87. I feel they have framed the race around the wrong horse, and I think Gwan So ran to a minimum postmark of 95.
He is progressing with every run, and I can see him being very much in the mix here, especially with Jamie Spencer coming in for the ride who can get him settled and bring him with a well-timed run.
The market has generously priced him up at 50/1 with Betfair Sportsbook who offer 4 places in this 10 runner event and that’s massive for a horse with his progressive form.
I still feel he is value at 20/1.
So Easy Way – 7.00 Ballinrobe – 2m 1F Handicap Chase – 33/1 Bet365 -1 Point Each Way.
The 5 year old So Easy Way started life in 3 year old French races. He showed little form in three hurdle races, and it was only when he went chasing that he improved placing and eventually winning a good chase in Compiegne, postmarking 115. This improvement was no surprise as he is big strong chasing type.
Off the back of these runs he was bought by a good UK owner and was trained by Harry Whittingham. He started life in a Class 3 two mile handicap chase in 2020 off a UK mark of 135 and was only beaten 15 lengths, postmarking a fair 114. This was followed up with another good effort postmarking 114.
I’m not sure what happened, he either didn’t live up to connections expectations or suffered some injury as he was sold on early 2021 to the trainer/owner Ian Madden.
This is where things turn for the worse as Ian Madden has a terrible record having only 1 winner from over 150 runners.
It was therefore no surprise to see So Easy Way’s form take a massive dip as he has been pulled up three times and tailed off in the other.
This really doesn’t read well, especially with Ian Madden’s poor record, however there is cause for some optimism.
To me So Easy Way hasn’t looked fit as he has travelled well in his first three chase races before stopping fairly quickly in the last half mile. With the trainers profile this is only natural as he will have wanted to freshen the horse up, get him happy, and then gradually get him fitter on the track. This also has the benefit of getting his handicap mark down.
His last run over hurdles was over 2m 5F, which is too far for this free running sort, so can easily be forgotten.
So Easy Way looks interesting today as he is back to a much more suitable trip of 2m 1F and more importantly goes back chasing. Ballinrobe is also an excellent fit as its tight configuration very much suits front runners.
With So Easy Way’s handicap mark down to just 104 and his apprentice jockey claiming a further 4lb he can run off just 100 which makes him dangerously well handicapped. This coincides with a drop in class which is his easiest assignment since his 3 year old novice runs.
He currently sits at 33/1 with Bet365 and I recommend 1 point each way. It is critical to back him with a best odds guaranteed bookmaker offer as I think he will drift our violently before the off and could be 100/1 SP or bigger.
I think 33/1 is the lowest price to take on So Easy Way.
