Hi
Please se below my two tips for Saturday:
Midnight Shadow – 1.50 Cheltenham – Racing Post Gold Cup – 2m 5F Handicap Chase – 7/1 Bet365, 888, Ladbrokes – 2 Point Win – Best Odds Guaranteed.
This is one of the richest handicap chases of the entire season, being worth more than the Cheltenham Festival handicaps. Consequently its uber competitive with many interesting runners.
The best form going into this race is usually from the Paddy Power Handicap run at Cheltenham’s old course in November. Midnight Shadow won and further enhanced his excellent Cheltenham record and went up 7lb.
Reopposing from that race is Paul Nicholl’s Lalor (2 length 3rd & 5lb better off), Dostal Phil (3 length 4th & 6lb better off), Zanza (5 lengths 6th & 6lb better off), Coole Cody – Fell.
If you go by purely weight adjustments and beaten distances, then Lalor and Dostal Phil have the beating of Midnight Shadow – but this logic is far from guaranteed – if only betting was that simple!!
My long term subscribers know I think Zanza is a very well handicapped horse and I definitely see him win a big handicap, but I have left him alone on the basis I think he might prefer a flat track (ideally Newbury). Fingers crossed he doesn’t win today!!
Other dangers are Harry Skelton’s Beakstown who is well handicapped but looks soft in a finish. The Pipe stable love this race so Siruh Du Lac will undoubtedly be lined up for a big run, but the biggest threat could come from Venetia William’s French recruit, Farient. Venetia is hitting form (has a good record in this race) and this unexposed sort looks just the type. He was almost my pick, but the good, good/soft ground just might be too lively for him to be at his best.
I can’t make a strong enough case for any of the outsiders, so I have landed on Midnight Shadow following up his latest triumph.
The Paddy Power form has been boosted by the second Protektorat who subsequently won the Many Clouds Grade 2 Chase last weekend and having watched the Paddy Power race a few times I think Midnight Shadow did amazingly well to win and can defy the 7lb rise.
Midnight Shadow travelled prominently near the strong pace and was 5 lengths clear at the last when he stumbled on landing losing crucial momentum. That cost him 3-4 lengths and somehow, he had the strength and enough energy to get going again to drive forward up the hill and hold on. Few horses could carry this off in such a competitive field.
Midnight Shadow is a Cheltenham specialist and can add to his 3 wins from 7 runs. He will love the fast ground and people seem to have forgotten that he ran second in this last year off 148 on unfavourable soft ground and was 14 lengths clear of the reminder.
At 7/1 he is not a huge price, but I don’t understand why he isn’t the solid 5/1 favourite, so he represents value near the front of the market.
I therefore recommend a 2 point win with Bet365, 888 & Ladbrokes who all offer best odds guaranteed.
He is still value at 6/1.
No No Juliet – 1.22 Hereford – 3 Mile 1 F Handicap Chase – 10/1 Bet365, 888, Boyles – Best Odds Guaranteed – 1 Point Each Way.
This is the Mares Series Final won last year by Kappa De Lily off a mark of 106. She goes for the repeat and is 2/1 favourite but runs off a 24lb higher mark of 130.
Venetia is excellent at progressing her horses, so the repeat is very much on the cards, but she might find it a struggle to overcome No No Juliet who only finished 4 lengths behind Kappa De Lily in the final last year and is a whooping 28lb better off.
No No Juliet has been lightly raced since last season’s race (4 runs) and did win a small handicap off 110.
She had her seasonal debut in one of the qualifier races for this and whilst she didn’t sparkle that will definitely have been a prep for today (this is a big pot for a lowly rated horse so is very much worth targeting)
Last season she ran off 111, whereas this year her rating is a competitive looking 107.
The one concern is the good/soft ground, which is on the fast side for No No Juliet. But that might not be a barrier to success, especially as she acts well round Hereford (2 places from 2 runs).
At 10/1 with Bet365/888/Boyles (BOG) we can make an each way play and I recommend 1 point each way,
She is still value at 8/1.
