Hi,
Please see my four tips for Saturday:
Zanza – 2.15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 12/1 Paddy Power/William Hill/Betfred – 6 Places – 1.5 Points Each Way.
I’m putting up Zanza again as I am convinced, he is a well handicapped horse and can win this prestigious handicap.
This is one of the biggest pots of the year and in hindsight I should have realised when I put Zanza up last time on his seasonal debut that connections were just giving him a pipe opener.
In the Haldon Cup he was surprisingly weak in the market and now I understand. I was not expecting connections to use that race as a prep for this, but the way he was tenderly ridden at the end of the race (and blew up two out) suggesting today was always Plan A.
He still ran a good race to finish a close 3rd from 4lb out of the handicap (off 148), so the fact he can run off 144 today is a real eyecatcher. He still postmarked 153 last time so off 144 that’s already a +9 above his handicap mark. Now that would be enough to win most normal handicaps, but this is one of the richest handicaps in the calendar and hugely competitive so I suspect Zanza will need a little more to win it (probably +12 to +15).
But that is highly likely, especially on his favoured goodish ground.
He won over 2m 3F as a younger horse so this 2m 4F round the sharper inside track at Cheltenham should bring out natural improvement. His French pedigree and reinforces this point.
Obviously, we have to face the fact Zanza fell and was badly hampered in his last two runs at Cheltenham, but he has been unlucky and jumped well last time. This slightly longer trip means he will be going a stride slower which is bound to assist and I’m hopeful it will be third time lucky.
He is a second season chaser, and that profile normally wins this prize.
I am going in early as I suspect Zanza will be a single figure price on the day and the 12/1 we take now means we can make the each way play with 6 places on offer. I recommend 1.5 points each way with Paddy Power, Betfred and William Hill
He is still value at 8/1, but I would recommend a straight win at that price.
See my previous write up on Zanza, he was my Cheltenham Festival 2021 handicap bet of the week, but was brought down when making a move 3 out in the Grand Annual:
Zanza – Grand Annual Chase 2M Handicap Chase – (Wednesday) – 14/1 Sporting Index – 1.5 points each way.
Well, I’m so sorry to subscribers that I waited an extra day to put up my first antepost bet in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as the 22/1 I advised yesterday has unfortunately gone and he is best priced 14/1 (I’m sick!).
The horse in question is Zanza, and annoyingly the legendary Racing Post tipster, Tom Segal, commonly known as Pricewise has tipped up Zanza in Thursday’s Racing Post. This has caused the price to collapse.
Zanza is seven years old and has been progressing nicely over the past two seasons. Last year he won a handicap hurdle off 136 and then ran in the three most prestigious and hotly contested handicap hurdles in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham, The Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot, and Betfair hurdle at Newbury. He acquitted himself well at a time when he was still very green and pulling hard in his races and that experience will have done him the world of good to face the challenge of a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
This season he has gone novice chasing and progressed with every run. On his second start he finished an eye catching 12 length second to Allmankind (who is 3rd favourite for the Arkle) and could easily have finished closer if ridden out properly, but it was good experience. He followed this up with an impressive win at Newbury in a handicap off 136 where he won going away by 5 lengths.
His latest run was at Cheltenham in a really strong run race where he was travelling supremely well tracking the leaders before falling 3 out. You can never be sure how he would have finished but he was full of running and looked sure to be involved at the finish.
The winner of that race was Sky Pirate, who ran off 134, and has gone on to win again and is now rated 152. Sky Pirate is 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual. The second was Ibleo who ran off 137 and has subsequently won twice and is now rated 154, he is 16/1 for the Grand Annual.
Zanza is running off the same mark so will be getting an 18lb & 17lb pull at the weights with these two market principles.
The icing on the cake is the ground. When he ran against Sky Pirate and Ibleo it was soft, but Zanza is a top of the ground horse, which makes his Cheltenham run even more impressive. Indeed Phillip Hobbs has already said that Zanza won’t run in the Grand Annual if the ground is soft.
It now looks like the long range forecast is for dry weather at the Cheltenham Festival and the going on the Wednesday is very likely to be good/soft. Consequently, it’s highly probable he will have his perfect conditions.
You should note that Zanza is entered for a race at Doncaster this Saturday (and should be backed, if he runs!!), if he wins, he will only receive a maximum 5lb penalty and with the ground looking like being on the fast side I think Phillip Hobbs will run to get some more experience into Zanza.
If he wins, he will probably go off favourite for the Grand Annual. If he runs at Doncaster and flops, then he will probably miss Cheltenham.
This is where the Non Runner No Bet angle comes into play. I am recommending you back him now, take this offer, and if he flops at the weekend and doesn’t run at Cheltenham, then you can claim your money back. If he wins, we have a great each way bet for one of the favourites at the Festival.
He looks a fantastic bet and I’m just sorry I didn’t advise you all when I backed him two weeks ago at 33/1!!! I will attach my betting slip to this email as proof!!!
I am recommending 1.5 points each way at 14/1 with Sporting Index – 5 places.
Diamond Joel – 12.57 Uttoxeter – 2m Handicap Hurdle – 12/1 Paddy Power/William Hill/Bet Victor – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Diamond Joel in the summer, but he was a non-runner due to rain softened ground. I have included below my previous write up on why I thought Diamond Joel was a well handicapped horse.
He had a mini break and came back with a rock solid 3rd place over todays course and distance. He travelled like the winner 3 out but just blew up and was outpaced by the front two.
I think slightly further would be ideal for him, but I think he is so well handicapped he can win over this trip, especially now he has that recent run under his belt.
We can get 12/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Bet Victor with 4 places and that’s a fair each way play.
He still looks value at 8/1.
Diamond Joel – 6.45 Uttoxeter – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 22/1 Boyles – 4 places – 1 point each way.
The 9 year old Diamond Joel is in my tracker as he is undoubtedly a well handicapped horse over hurdles. He won on the flat over 1m 6F and postmarked a high of 86. He ran with credit over 1m 4f right up to 2 miles.
He had 4 years off with injury and his owner has been incredibly patient with the horse, but they have nursed him back to health by sending him hurdling, which has been a slow and steady process. His novice hurdles were when he was on his comeback runs and so the handicapper could only give him a low jumps mark.
He showed sign on his latest run where he was a staying on close fifth that he is now ready to win a race.
Ironically, I almost didn’t put him up to today, as I think he probably needs further than 2 miles over hurdles, 2m 4F would probably be ideal. Furthermore he does have a liking for better ground and the forecast good/soft (soft if rain hits the track hard) will diminish his chances.
Despite the negatives I think he can still win this with the slower ground helping his stamina to come into play. He did show form on soft once on the flat so I’m hoping his wellbeing and low handicap mark can help him overcome the negatives.
Connections have previously pulled Diamond Joel out on the day due to ground, so I’m hopeful that if conditions don’t suit, they will make him a non-runner again and save our money!
At 22/1 with Boylesports, who pay 4 places, and BOG, I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
Two Taffs – 1.05 Cheltenham – 3m 1F Handicap Chase – 40/1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
Two Taffs is 11 years old and has some excellent form in the book includingdecen t performances at Cheltenham. In 2017 he came third at the Festival in the uber competitive 2m 5F novices handicap chase. That was off 137 and he has postmarked a peak of 152.
He was with the Skelton’s who got the best out of him, he move to Nigel Twiston Davis for a season and wasn’t at his best, but still postmarked in the 140’s.
Two Taff’s moved in April 21 to the very capable Sophie Leech who sent him over to France and ran in some high value handicaps. His last run being a good 4th over 3 miles.
That last French run can be up graded because it was on unsuitable heavy ground and today, he returns to his ideal good, good to soft going.
Two Taffs looks really interesting today as the handicapper has given the old boy a real chance dropping him from 137 in April to just 121!!
Now that is a real gift as his form in France has been ok, with his last run finishing 4th in a big field £66k handicap.
The trainer Sophie Leech gets a few wins at Cheltenham and today she has her daughter on board in this conditional rider race and she would love to get her a win. She takes a handy 7lb off so Two Taffs is running off a net 114 which gives him a huge chance, if he stays!
The one slight negative is the 3 mile 1 F trip as most of his best form is over 2 miles 5 furlongs, but he hasn’t had too many opportunities and that last run over 3 miles was almost today’s trip. The good ground will also help make it easier to stay. Don’t get me wrong if he is leading in the last furlong up Cheltenham’s hill it will be nerve racking!!. So if you use the Betfair exchange I’d recommend setting a lay 1.03 just in case he gets caught in the final strides!!!
The 40/1 available is bonkers and makes Two Taffs a great each way bet with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair Sportsbook who all offer 5 places.
He is still value at 16/1.
Optimise Prime – 2.50 Cheltenham – 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 20/1 William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
To win a Cheltenham handicap takes a horse nicely ahead of his mark and Optimise Prime has shown enough in his novice hurdle campaign to suggest there is more to come, especially over 3 miles.
Optimise Prime has only run the 5 times and quickly showed himself to be a decent recruit winning two 2 mile 4 F novice hurdles. He went on to run a very creditable 3rd in a listed novice event where he led and was just outpaced in the closing stages.
He went on to run at the Cheltenham Festival in the 2m 4F Grade 1 Ballymore novice hurdle, but he led and was outpaced and out classed ending up out the back.
He had the summer off and makes his handicap debut today off a very fair mark of 129. What I really like is him stepping up to a much more suitable 3 miles.
He is bred for the trip and as a 5 year old who will be 6 in January he is now mature enough to really do himself justice over that trip.
His run in that Listed hurdle has worked out well and you can easily up grade his postmark to nearer 135 and if you factor in the definite improvement for the step un in trip then a mark of 140+ is very realistic. Consequently running off 128 gives him an excellent chance to be involved here. Especially when you factor in his staying run style. I think he will love the Cheltenham hill!
Plenty of young progressive unexposed horses have won this so we have the right sort of profile horse to go to war with and Nico De Bonville is a great jockey booking.
Optimise Prime sits at 20/1 in the market with William Hill and Betfair Sportsbook who offer 4 places in this 11 runner race (also 20/1 with Paddy Power & BetVictor) and looks great value when I feel he should be a 12/1 shot.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
