Hi,
Please see my three tips for Wednesday:
Wrenthorpe – 4.25 Nottingham – 5F Handicap – 9/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Wrenthorpe just loves racing at Nottingham with 4 wins from 5 runs and the other start finishing second. Those wins were off marks between 74 and 84.
The other big stat in favour of Wrenthorpe is winning this race for the past two years and you can be sure connections are eyeing the hattrick.
Wrenthorpe’s does need to overcome his last run which was his worst performance for a couple of years, but I can excuse that as it was his first outing since May and connections were keen to get a run into him before his hattrick bid. That run was also at Chester where he was drawn unfavourably wide and ran 5 deep the whole way round the turning track.
That run will have put him straight for today and the handicapper dropped him a handy 3lb which puts him off 83, one pound lower than last year’s victory.
He loves soft going so the good/soft should give him just enough juice in the ground to run to form.
The 9/1 offered by Bet365 (generally) is generous under the circumstances and he looks a rock solid each way play.
He still looks value at 6/1.
Yorkshire Pirlo – 7.30 Kempton – 7F Handicap – 2 Point Win.
Darryl Holland is one of the newest Newmarket trainers and has made a fair start to his career with an 11% strike rate.
The 3 year old Yorkshire Pirlo joined him from another yard and won a 7F handicap last year off a mark of 71.
He started this year off a mark of 78 and has ran Ok without troubling the judge. His breathing must have been inhibiting his performances as he was given a wind operation and has had one subsequent run on heavy ground which wouldn’t have suited.
Today he is back down to his winning mark of 71 and Darryl has reached for first time blinkers. This coincides with a good low draw and there has been good money from 16/1 into 7/1 with Bet365.
When Darryl’s horses have been backed, they invariably win, so I am recommending a 2 point win with Bet365.
Please use a best odds guaranteed bookmaker as early prices can drift on the day.
The Yorkshire Pirlo is still value at 5/1.
Machocha – 8.30 Kempton – 7F Handicap – 80/1 Paddy Power – 4 Places.
Originally trained in Ireland, Machocha ran fairly well on occasions postmarking a high of 67. Her most promising run was finishing a close 3rd on the polytrack surface when racing at Dundalk over 7F off a mark of 62.
She raced three times earlier in the year before moving to John O’Shea’s UK yard.
Machocha returned to the track off the back of an 84 day break over 1m and that looked very much like a pipe opener, and I like the fact connections bring her out after just 9 days. This time with an added tongue tie and first time blinkers.
Today she runs off 50, so is 2lb out of the handicap (official mark 48), but that shouldn’t be a barrier considering the 3 year old filly has already run to 67.
She should enjoy the Kempton track as it’s also a polytrack surface and is a flat track like Dundalk.
Coming from a good draw in stall 5 she should get nice track position and can out run her current odds of 80/1 with Paddy Power who offer 4 places in this 14 runner event.
Machocha still looks value at 33/1.
