Hi,
Please see my two tips for Thursday:
Londonofficecallin – 2.37 Tramore – 2M 4F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Boyles – 4 places BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 4 year old Londonofficecallin began life on the flat for just 4 runs before going juvenile hurdling as a 3 year old.
He ran with promise on his first two hurdles starts postmarking 88 twice over 2 miles. When he ventured into handicap hurdles in 2021 off an opening mark of 95 unfortunately his form went backwards.
After a mid-summer break, probably due to the quick ground, he returned to action in September where he was fitted with a first time tongue tie and put up an improved performance off a reduce mark of 82.
He was out paced two out but stayed on to grab a 10 length 7th of 17. The fact he stayed on demonstrated his breathing had caused his previous poor performances.
On his latest start, in a hugely competitive 20 runner Punchestown handicap, the tongue tie was retained and there was some market support (from 33/1 into 25/1). He jumped off in third and travelled well until 3 out where he was slightly outpaced but was starting to stay on in 7th when he was hampered and blocked and lost all chance.
The jockey quickly eased him and let him coast home up the finishing straight and only lost by 20 lengths.
He wouldn’t have won this race but with a fully ridden out race he would have been in the top 6. Interestingly the Racing Post commentary does not refer to the interference and so the market just sees a below par effort and have priced him up in today’s race at a massive 66/1.
Today’s race is a 13 runner affair at Tramore and is very much a drop in class. Nevertheless there are still two horses in form at the head of the market in Auckland and Tullyveery Lad who I very much respect. Particularly Tullyveery Lad who was heavily backed last time out and won snuggly. The drawback with these two are the 9/4 and 5/2 prices which are ridiculously short in a 13 runner race. Plus connections gambled in Tullyveery last time and were rewarded with a big payday and I’m always wary of this type of horse being so short next time out.
I’m happy to take them both on with the Londonofficecallin at 66/1 with Boyles, who offer 4 places in this 13 runner event and BOG. We are effectively getting 6/1 for just placing with a huge upside if he wins.
He is still value at 33/1.
Allora Yeats – 3.25 Curragh – 1m 4F Handicap – 66/1 Boyles – 5 Places – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 7 year old mare Allora Yeats has run some good races this year, finishing runner up 3 times, including in the extremely competitive Apprentice Derby over todays course and distance.
That was a superb effort behind Beyond Happy who is an unexposed, very well handicapped horse trained by J S Bolger who regularly targets and wins the Apprentice Derby. Allora Yeats was beaten 1.75 lengths, but the pair pulled nearly 4 lengths clear of the remainder.
That run was off 64, with a 4lb claimer on board and the handicapper was very impressed and put up Allora Yeats 9lb to 73 for coming 2nd which was very harsh indeed for connections.
Her subsequent runs haven’t been as good, but this hasn’t been helped by running on unsuitable ground and unsuitable trips and I feel connections have been happy to get a few pounds back off her back. Her last run over 2 miles was a very decent effort postmarking 74 off a mark of 70 which shows her form is good and she should improve today for the step back to her ideal trip of 1m 4F.
I think it’s significant Allora Yeats returns to the Curragh where she has only run twice, coming second (in the above race) but also first in a handicap. Both these efforts were on yielding ground that she runs on today and over the same trip.
Her mark is down to 69 and with the use of 10lb claimer Melanie Horsman she technically runs off a net 59 which is 1lb lower mark than her Apprentice Derby second. This gives her an excellent chance of victory.
The fact we can back her at 66/1 with Skybet is remarkable especially considering they offer 6 places.
The slight negatives are the draw and inexperienced jockey. Allora Yeats comes out of the widest draw, but she came out of a similar high draw to come second, but the inexperienced rider is a risk as she will need to try and judge a hold up ride which is never easy.
My main fear is that she stays on too late which is why I recommend we take the 6 places offered by Skybet.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way. She is still value at 20/1.
