HI,
Please see below my four picks for Tuesday:
Telefina – 4.55 Redcar – 1M 6F Handicap – 80/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Telefina is by Telescope who is quite a new sire and has been producing stoutly stayers who progress over time. He is a son of Gallileo, so the bloodline is good!
Telefina is three years old and has only raced 5 times, three in maidens where she was green and backward.
On her first start she was stepped up to 1m 6F and showed promise, staying on from the rear and only losing by 4 lengths. That was off a mark of 46.
Her last run was over 2 miles and they changed tactics going from the front and was swallowed up in the home straight. She had to run from 5lb out of the handicap that day off 50.
Today she steps back to 1m 6F and runs off 45 with good 5lb claimer Elisha Whittingham netting her mark down to just 40.
This class 6 is low grade stuff and at 80/1 with Bet365 she could easily get involved here and is worth an each way play.
She is still value at 33/1.
Jan De Heem – 4.25 Redcar – 1m 6F Handicap – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
The 11 year old Jan De Heem is a regular over Redcar’s 1m 6F Handicap and has won over the course and distance and placed on multiple occasions.
Indeed he won this race in 2017 and was third in 2019 so connections will be trying there best to get involved.
The ground will be in his favour and his mark has dropped to his lowest ever.
They have played around with his head gear today and have substituted cheekpieces for blinkers to try and get a reaction.
At 50/1 with Bet365 he is just too big and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 25/1.
Grandfather Tom – 4.30 Yarmouth – 5F Handicap – 14/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Grandfather Tom has a superb record at Yarmouth with 2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts.
Including a win in this race last year. He is 3lb lower today than last years winning mark and has just had the one run this year that looked very much like a pipe opener for this.
At 14/1 he looks a rock solid each way play with Bet365.
He still looks value at 10/1.
Sol Plum Creek – 2.05 Fontwell – 2m 3F Handicap – 100/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Sol Plum Creek last time out when he was stepped up to 3 miles, but it looked very much that he didn’t stay.
The cheekpieces and tongue did the trick as he travelled behind the leaders for two a half miles before fading under pressure.
It makes sense to try back over this trip now that he is travelling better and at 100/1 with Bet365 he is simply a massive price for a very unexposed handicapper who is right at the bottom of the weights.
I recommend 1 point each way.
Please see my previous write up for reference.
Sol Plum Creek – 1.50 Uttoxeter – 2M 7F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Skybet – 5 places – 1 point each way.
Noel Williams is a decent jumps trainer with a fair 12% strike rate for winners and 35% for horses to place.
He runs Sol Plum Creek in this low grade 2m 7F handicap hurdle and looks an intriguing runner on his handicap debut.
Sol Plum Creek has a nice jumps pedigree being sired by Canyon Creek who has produced many good jumpers in France. With his dam being a very stoutly bred German horse who will enjoy a staying trip.
He has only had three NH flat races where he postmarked a fair high of 95 on good ground and on his three maiden hurdle runs you could see he jumped well but was definitely out for experience only as he set off in last, ran wide round all the bends and was allowed to fade under minimal assistance from the saddle.
His best postmark of 72 was on his debut when he ran at today’s Uttoxeter track, he was subsequently fitted with a tongue tie which indicates that first run was hindered by poor breathing.
Those maiden runs were over 2m 4F but for his handicap debut connections have stepped him up to 2m 7F which is sure to suit.
He is officially rated 65 but has to run off 74 so is 9lb out of the handicap. Whilst it would be nice if he could run off 65, I’m not overly concerned as he is so unexposed and his NH flat postmark of 95 indicates he has much more to give now he is sent handicapping.
What is very interesting is the application of cheekpieces today as Noel William’s has won 2 races from 3 starts this year with first time cheekpieces.
It’s certainly a tactic worth noting and following at his current price of 66/1, especially with Sol Plum Creek on his handicap debut, over a trip a new trip that is bound to improve him, and on ground and a track that he likes.
Sol Plum Creek sits at 66/1 with Skybet (and Betfair Sportsbook) where we can get 5 places in this 15 runner event. I’m therefore recommending 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.
