Hi
Please see below my one tip for Wednesday:
Riliya – 7.30 Dundalk – 1m Handicap – 7/1 Paddy Power, 888, BetVictor – 2 Point Win.
I put up Riliya 7 days ago at 50/1 and he duly obliged for us off a basement mark of 45.
The handicapper has put him up just 5lb, which is very fair as whilst he only won by a neck (from the well backed favourite), the third was 2.5 lengths further away and it very much looked like the front two were well handicapped.
He returns to the winning course and distance with the same jockey on board, from a similar draw, so I’m hopeful for a follow up.
At 7/1 he still looks fair value for the only last time out winner in the field and so I’m recommending a 2 point win.
Please see my previous write up for background information:
Riliya – 3.45 Dundalk – 1M Handicap – 50/1 Paddy Power, BetVictor, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
The 3 year old filly Riliya hasn’t set the world a light just yet, but his trainer, John C McConnell is a master at bringing his average horses along slowly and getting wins in these lower grade handicaps.
Riliya was slowly away in her maidens over a mile and finished mid division, postmarking a high of 45. Once she was handicapped her form improved slightly but was disappointing stepped up to longer trips and her best postmark in 4 handicap runs was only 49.
There must have been a breathing issue as Riliya had a tongue tie applied for her last race over a mile where the good apprentice Siobhan Rutledge was in the saddle. They made a good start and were nicely prominent but were unlucky throughout the race. Firstly being squeezed out and shuffled back from 1 length off the pace to 5 lengths into midfield. Coming into the home straight they were denied an initial run and had to wait for a gap to switch off the rail. They went for a run at the 2 furlong pole and were squeezed out, losing all chance but still stayed on for a 5 length 7th. She but would have placed with a clear run.
Today they are back over the same course and distance and from a slightly wider draw will hopefully go handy and have the space on the outside to make there move coming into the home straight.
The tongue tie definitely helped and is retained for today and that should give Riliya more confidence in her ability to see the whole race out.
Running off the basement mark of 45 and with a best postmark of 49 won’t be enough to win this, but only a small amount of improvement will be required, and the trainer/jockey combo are adept at winning with these types with similar unexposed improvers.
We can currently get a huge 50/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Riliya being a major market mover before the off.
She is still value at 16/1.
