Hi
Please see my three picks for Tuesday:
Vinnie Dev – 2.10 Lingfield – 3m 5F Handicap Chase – 22/1 Coral, Quinnbet, Bet365 (25/1) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 6-year-old, Vinnie Dev, has been in my tracker ever since he came back off a 691-day absence and looked the type to win a nice staying handicap when his fitness and wellbeing were back in place.
He was incredibly unlucky in his Point to Points to bump into Grade 1 winners, Shishkin and Chantry House. He was only beaten 14 lengths by Shishkin, and whilst you can’t take that form literally. Vinnie Dev still postmarked 121 in an Ascot novice hurdle and won a Point to Pointy and novice hurdle, all as a young 5-year-old.
He had now had two runs back since his injury and he is stepped up significantly in trip for the first time, which suggests connections are happy he is reaching full fitness.
His mark of 110 looks lenient based upon his novice days and the stamina-sapping 3m 5F on the heavy ground should be well within his compass considering he was sire by St Leger winner Vinnie Roe and the dam’s sire was St Leger hero Kay Tara, whose progeny love the heavy ground.
Tom Brien is a good jockey booking and all looks set up for improved performance at rewarding odds of 22/1 with 888, Coral, and Bet365 (who go 25/1).
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 16/1.
Choctaw Brave – 2.30 Ayr – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 18/1 888, Coral, Ladbrokes – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Choctaw Brave last time out, but he weakened quickly. He had previously recorded a breathing issue, so in hindsight, this problem was likely to rise again at some point.
Connections have now done the right thing giving him a wind operation and we must now give him another chance at good odds of 18/1.
I recommend 1 point each way.
Choctaw Brave – 1.30 Uttoxeter – 3m Handicap Chase – 20/1 Bet365, Corals Boyles – 1 point each way – 4 Places. BOG
Choctaw Brave is only really starting on his career. He had 6 starts in 3 Mile Point To Points and acquitted himself well enough with numerous placed efforts that showed he has the ability.
He came under rules with Tim Reed who loves his chasers and allows them to be brought along slowly, so his maiden hurdle runs over 2 miles, and 2.5 miles just served a purpose to obtain a handicap mark.
He was allocated an opening handicap mark of 90 which looked more than fair considering he postmarked mid 80’s multiple times in P2Ps.
He transferred immediately to chasing for his handicap debut and stepped up to 3 miles, but although he jumped well, the good ground was far too fast for this Roselier mare and was outpaced in the final half-mile (Roselier loved the heavy ground and his progeny generally have a big soft/heavy ground preference).
That race confirmed his chasing ability and today’s heavy ground is very much in his favour.
Choctaw Brave is trading at 20/1 and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 14/1.
Kiwi Ling – 3.55 Lingfield – 2m 7F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Coral, Quinnbet, Bet365 (100/1) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
Kiwi Ling has just had a couple of National Hunt flat races, followed by 3 mandatory maiden hurdle runs where he has shown very little, postmarking a high of just 64.
This modest performer goes handicapping for the first time over 2m 7F and is very much bred to appreciate the trip and ground.
This is a low-grade handicap and Kiwi Ling is only rated 69 and it’s rare that connections have been able to find a race where he can run in the handicap proper off that mark.
The fact blinkers go on today on his handicap debut give us some hope of an improved run and he could easily put up a career-best now in his grade.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way at 50/1 with Coral and Quinnbet. You can get 100/1 with Bet365 and BOG.
