Hi,
Please see my two tips for Thursday:
Round The Island – 5.40 Pontefract – 6F Handicap – 7/1 Bet365 – 2 Point Win.
The Whitaker’s have won this race 3 times in the last 4 years. Two of those wins were with Round The Island in 2018 & 2019 off marks of 56 and 67. Today he returns for a hattrick of wins off a very fair mark of 62.
It’s not unusual for Trainers targeting certain races every year, but what I ‘ve noticed is that Simon Whitaker has great success in multiple repeat winners in a small amount of races. So we must take note today.
What is making me be particularly alerted to Round The Island’s chance is the reapplication of cheekpieces which have been conspicuous in their absence for his last few runs. These have been worn for his last three wins so are very significant to his chances.
Round The Island is also down to a very fair mark of 62, he has been running ok this year off this sort of mark, including over 7F last time out which is not his optimum trip. I really do feel his whole season has been geared around winning this race again.
So now the headgear goes back on, and he is down to the right distance, at the track that he loves (6 wins) and from a good draw, in a race he has won twice, he looks to have a very strong chance.
The 7/1 with Bet365 looks big compared to his chances and so I recommend a 2 point win.
He still looks value at 5/1.
The Rutland Rebel – 4.00 Pontefract – 2m 1F Handicap – 25/1 Paddy Power – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
This handicap is in the series of 2m+ handicaps run at Pontefract, and I really enjoy these races.
It suits proper staying types, and you very much get specialists in this series.
This looks a wide open race with quite a few coming back for another tilt in the series. It’s a class 5 handicap and The Rutland Rebel has caught my eye as he has performed well earlier this year at the track on similar ground finishing a close second in a Class 4 and being 8 lengths clear of the remainder. That was off a mark of 70.
He was put up 3lb for that run but returns here back off 70 as his last two runs have been below par. There are excuses though, he stumbled badly leaving the stalls two runs ago and never travelled after. That was back in May, and I think he picked up a small injury during the race as he was then off for three months, until returning to action recently.
His latest run was just a pipe opener, as in the past he has needed a run. He did go on to win second time out off a break earlier this year.
That 3lb drop is significant as it enables The Rutland Rebel to take this drop to a Class 5 which is very much in his favour.
I really like the jockey booking of JP MacDonald, who is one the north’s strongest and most successful riders and that combined with the 25/1 from Paddy Power who offer 4 places in this 15 runner field makes him look a good each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 14/1.
