Hi
Please see attached the my four picks for Monday:
Jesses Lady – 3.45 Chepstow – 2m 3.5F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The 15/8 favourite, Breizh Alko, must have legs of glass and has been very lightly raced for an 11-year-old. He remains unexposed, and after his promising comeback run from an 1135 day absence could easily come on for the run and win.
I don’t have an issue with his profile, but the 15/8 is very skinny and must be taken on.
Jesses Lady has a similar profile, having a 771-day break, before making her seasonal debut recently in his third maiden hurdle, where she postmarked 77 and has been allotted a lenient looking opening handicap mark of 83, especially when you consider her two previous postmarks were 77 and 88.
If Jesses Lady can overcome the dreaded bounce factor (where a horse runs poorly after a long absence), she has a huge chance to improve considering all her maidens were over 2 miles where she stayed on suggesting the need for further.
Her pedigree is also full of 2m 4F and 3-mile hurdles/chasers, so improvement looks assured over this longer trip.
The very good conditional, Charlie Price, take a handy 3lb off, netting her markdown to 80, so Jesses Lady looks to have a similar chance to the favourite, but we can back her at a huge 25/1.
I’m recommending 1 point each way with Ladbrokes, Coral, and Bet365, who all go 25/1 and best odds guaranteed.
She still looks value at 10/1.
Rose Milan – 3.35 Punchestown – 3 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 20/1 Bet365 & Boyles – 5 Places BOG – 1 Point Each Way. (Paddy Power & BetVictor also 20/1 but not BOG).
Roped In, Salamino, and Kingston Kid all ran into places last time out and being unexposed are entitled to be there or thereabouts once more.
They are well found in the market, but the one I like at a juicy price of 20/1 is Rose Milan. She ran 5 times in good 3 mile Point to Points, winning once and placing 4 times.
On her debut under rules, she won a 3 mile Hunter chase, postmarking 112, before her shrewd connections sent her hurdling to obtain a separate mark in that sphere.
Those runs were generally over shorter, and Rose acquitted herself well running to a high of 97.
On her handicap debut, she was unsurprisingly stepped up to a more suitable 3 miles and the tongue tie and cheekpieces miraculously were re-applied which she wore when easily winning her hunter chase, but which had been missing for all her hurdles starts.
Unfortunately, the plan went astray as she fell, and it took her two runs to regain her confidence.
She was brought back to an inadequate trip of 2 miles where she out-performed herself, finishing a close 5th of 15 (off 97), and her latest run, over 2m 5F stayed on late to finish a never nearer 7th of 14, only going down by 7 lengths.
There is no doubt she is running into form, particularly considering these last two starts were without the tongue tie or cheekpieces.
Today looks like the day, as Rose Milan moves back up to 3 miles, the tongue tie and cheekpieces go on. The icing on the cake is the booking of the crack conditional jockey, Jack Foley, who is undoubtedly the best claimer jockey in Ireland, and his 5lb allowance is a gift!
That nets his mark down to 90 today, and with the ground also right for her, I can’t believe she sits in the market at 20/1 with Bet365 and Boyles, who offer BOG and 5 places (also 20/1 with Paddy Power & BetVictor- not BOG).
I recommend 1 point each way at 20/1, she is still value at 10/1.
Five Buttons – 1.20 Punchestown – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 40/1 Corals, Boyles – BOG – (Bet365 66s) – 1 Point Each Way.
This 17 runner handicap hurdle is high on numbers, but low on solid candidates.
With 5 places available generally, I’m going to take a chance with the handicap debutant, Five Buttons, who has just run three mandatory 3 times in maiden hurdles.
He has been allocated a mark of 89, which is a typical rating for Irish horses starting in handicaps.
I get so frustrated watching Irish maiden hurdles, where it looks to me like high numbers of horses are given ‘tender rides’ that the stewards let most go unpunished. Very few are brought in as non-triers.
The Irish handicapper tries to overcome these tactics by giving most horses an opening mark around 85-90, this is even when their performances were well below this.
I like Five Buttons as his opening rating of 89 looks earnt, but with real promise for improvement.
He ran freely on his racecourse debut (April 21), where his apprentice jockey rode him prominently in a 23 runner field. He contested the lead 3F from home with the eventual winner and were 3 lengths clear, but unfortunately, Five Buttons early exertions told, and he weakened dramatically into mid-division. Five Buttons still postmarked 90 and that run can be seriously upgraded.
He again pulled too hard on his second run quick run and faded over 2m 2F and was given time off to run his third handicap qualifying run in December where he postmarked 86.
All these runs were promising and now he has his first start in a handicap, especially with a run under his belt, he looks to have a fair chance of improvement.
This is an amateur race and Five Buttons run style should enable the jockey to get him near the front, if not lead the field, and let him pop away.
With that run under his belt, his freshness will reduce, and his fitness increase which could help him win, or place for us at rewarding odds of 40/1.
I recommend 1 point each way at 40/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes, and Bet365 (66/1), who all go BOG and 5 places.
He is still value at 20/1.
Ratoute Yutty – 2.50 Fakenham – 2 Mile 7.5F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Ladbrokes, Coral – 3 Places (66/1 Bet365 – 2 places) – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
This 7 runner handicap has a real angle to it, with both Ladbrokes and Coral, offering 3 places and best odds guaranteed.
This makes the 50/1 outsider of real interest now he only needs to beat 3 rivals to pick up a near 12/1 place.
Ratoute Yutty won in his native Ireland, postmarking 115 in the process, and was sold onto UK connections where he ran for Dan Skelton’s top yard. There he ran consistently over hurdles with a tongue strap on, placing on numerous occasions, but without winning for two seasons, peaking at a mark of 122 and staying within 110-120 over 14 runs.
His form tailed off for two runs and was sold onto and changed to the small Caroline Fryer yard.
Caroline removed the tongue-tie for the whole of the 2020/21 season (7 starts) and Ratoute Yutty ran poorly over chases, seeing his mark plummet to just 74.
Ratoute Yutty made his seasonal reappearance recently and it was great to see him back over hurdles and with the tongue tie back in place. He ran from 5lb out of the handicap, and it was a promising first run for a horse that has always needed his first run of the season, where he made headway from the rear before blowing up in the straight, postmarking 56.
This looks like a modest performance but considering he only postmarked 30 on his first start last season, I feel Ratoute Yutty’s baseline fitness and wellbeing is in a better place this season. It’s also interesting to note on his second run last year he postmarked 72, an increase of 42, which bodes well for the likely increase on this run.
He ran well on his only appearance at Fakenham two years ago where, over chases, he was travelling strongly on the bridle half a mile out, only to fall. This proves he acts at the track and will enjoy today’s ground.
The other good news is that he can run off his lowly handicap mark of 74, and gets the benefit of 7lb claimer, Lewis Stones, who can run off 9st 7lbs so can therefore take full benefit of his allowance. This means Ratoute Yutty runs off a nett mark of just 67!!
The tongue tie is retained which really gives me hope of a big run.
With so many positives in his favour, we have to get involved at 50/1, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
