Hi,
Please see attached my two tips for Thursday:
Kasakh Noir – 2.30 Thurles – 2m Handicap Hurdle – 100/1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 9 year old Kasakh Noir has some seriously good back form. He was originally trained by Dan Skelton where in his juvenile season won two hurdles over 2 miles and finished 6th in the Fred Winter 4 year old handicap hurdle at Cheltenham Festival. That was off an impressive mark of 137.
He didn’t take to chases with the Skelton’s and didn’t progress as a 5 year old so he was sold on to Irish connections and moved to the J J Lambe stable.
Unfortunately, JJ Lambe has a tendency to see his horses regress and Kaskakh Noir was no exception. Over the last two seasons his mark has dropped from 137 to just 99. He has been tried over 2m 4F+ but his best runs have still been when he has reverted to 2 miles when he came second of 17 runners off a mark of 100 on yielding going.
I think it’s good news that Kasakh Noir has been sold on and moved to Noel C Kelly. A change of scenery and training regime was definitely needed.
Kasakh has run three time for new connections, and they have definitely been ‘experimenting’ running him over 3 miles in a chase and then back to 2m 4Fs, once on good ground, the other on unsuitable heavy.
I like Kasakh Noir today as he is now down to just 91 and connections have brought him back to his best trip of 2 miles on ideal yielding ground.
With fitness not an issue and ideal trip, track and ground in his favour I feel the new connections are really trying and hopeful; for a big run.
Kasakh Noir sits at a massive 100/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair Sportsbook, who all offer 5 places and if he can just find his form back under his optimum conditions, he could bolt up here!
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 25/1.
Royal Reserve – 3.07 Newcastle – 2 Mile Handicap Hurdle – 12/1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
The 8 year old Royal Reserve has been a great horse to own, with 7 wins and 13 places from 53 runs.
He won 6 races on the flat and reach an excellent postmark of 96 and over hurdles he won a race over today’s course and distance off a mark of 113.
The one big common denominator was his liking for good fast ground.
Royal Reserve was injured in 2019 and needed two years off, only returning to action this year. He went chasing for his two runs and ran with credit considering the time off, postmark 97 and 90.
These runs were spoilt by some bad mistakes and it’s good that connections have chosen to revert back to hurdles.
Coming back to Newcastle’s track and trip where he previously won is a real positive and the fast ground is very much in his favour.
He looks well handicapped off 100 and with the stables apprentice taking 10lb off his net mark of 90 looks very appealing.
At 12/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, and Betfair Sportsbook looks a rock solid each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 8/1.
