Hi,
Please see my two tips for Monday:
Mary Of De Sorrows – 5.22 Plumpton – 3m 2F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This five runner field is dominated by Achy Breaky Heart who won a chase last time out, defeating Miami Present who was one of my picks last week that looked like he was going to win until Achy stayed on late and denied us!
Achy is trading awfully short at 4/7. He looks to have an obvious chance as he won off a mark of 84 and reverts to hurdling where he can run off just 78.
I’m looking for revenge and the 6 year old Mary De Sorrows is no 50/1 shot in this 5 horse race.
She was previously trained in Ireland by Gavin Cromwell and showed herself to have some ability and plenty of stamina running to Irish postmarks of 104 and 105.
In Ireland she finished 2nd off a mark of 94 and a fair 3rd off 96. These Irish marks are equivalent to circa 106 on the UK handicap.
Mary moved to the UK and has dropped in 6 runs from 106 down to just 79 and with her having a recent seasonal pipe opener over a trip too short she steps right up to a much more suitable staying trip.
The 5lb claimer Tom Buckley takes the ride which nets her mark down to just 74.
It wont be easy to beat Achy Breaky Heart, but with Mary Of De Sorrows trading at 50/1 we can back her each way and get a nice return from the place, with still a decent chance of victory.
I recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
She is still value at 12/1.
Alburn – 2.30 Plumpton – 2m 4F Handicap Chase – 33/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each way.
The 11 year old Alburn has spent most of his career running in Point to Points. He has only raced 18 times and won a 3 mile P2P and placed a further 4 times.
He only came under rules in late 2019, which was after 18 months off and was brought along slowly by connections and after 3 poor novice chases, he was allocated a basement handicap mark.
He went handicapping but didn’t shine on good to soft ground on three occasions and it was noted by connections that he dislikes soft ground and needs it good or faster.
Alburn then developed a breathing issue and was given a wind op in the summer and has just raced the once since where he travelled well for a long way before blowing up and maybe needing the race to gain confidence in his breathing.
Connections bring him out after 12 days, an ideal spacing to gain a fitness advantage.
At 50/1 with Bet365 in this 8 runner field he looks a nice each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 20/1.
Harmonious – 7.00 Wolverhampton – 1m 4F Handicap – 14/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
At first glance of Harmonious’ form you wouldn’t be backing him as he has finished down the field on his last 4 starts on turf.
However Harmonious looks like an all-weather specialist as he has run 5 times on synthetics and finished 2nd four times and 3rd on the other. They were off marks between 81 and 84 and today he returns to Wolverhampton’s polytrack off just 65 and with the benefit of Jonathan Fisher’s 5lb claim.
Harmonious’ trainer Scott Dixon does like a punt, and this looks very much like one and at 14/1 with Bet365 I’m happy to get involved.
He is still value at 11/1.
Moon Orchid – 3.47 Gowran Park – 1m 1F Handicap – 50/1 Boyles – 5 places – 1 Point Each Way.
Another huge Irish handicap with 17 runners but this lacks in form horses, with just the favourite, Olivia Valere, winning last time out. That was over 7F on yielding ground but today is a different test as he steps up to 1m 1F on soft. He has already failed over 1 mile three times, so he looks a weak favourite.
I’m taking a chance with the lightly raced Moon Orchid. She didn’t show much over shorter trips but was hampered in two races at the start and stayed on which suggests there is some ability.
After changing stables to Les Smyth Moon Orchid and on handicap debut off 56 she ran in a 6F handicap and again made minor headway late on finishing down the field, but again suggested she needed further.
Connections stepped her up to 1m 1F, but she was never happy that day and maybe raced a little lazily so on her latest start she was fitted with first time blinkers.
This last run was over today’s course and distance, but she was drawn the widest in stall 18 and basically had no chance. But for me this was a very eye-catching run. The jockey that day was Siobhan Rutledge, and she gave Moon Orchid exactly the same easy ride from a wide draw that she gave Nana Patsy a month ago. Dropping out in rear under tender handling before running on when it was all over into mid division. Siobhan won on Nana Patsy for us next time from a good draw, rousting the horse on early to gain track position before powering away in the straight.
Now Moon Orchid has a good draw in stall 7 and I’m very hopeful Siobhan will execute the same ride as Moon Orchid showed enough up that home straight to suggest there is plenty more to come.
At 50/1 with Boyles, who offer places, I’m recommending 1 point each way.
She is still value at 25/1.
