Hi,
It’s Scottish Grand National day and I have a bumper SIX selections today, these include the two National selections I advised yesterday, so another four new picks for you:
The Scottish Grand National – 3.55 Ayr – 4 Mile Handicap Chase
I don’t normally put two horses up in the same race, but it’s the Scottish National, and there are two I like with similar profiles that I’m struggling to split and are both decent 33/1 shots.
El Paso Wood – 33/1 Skybet, Betfred, Bet365 (Best priced 40/1) – 7 places
This 8-year-old is owned by Judith Wilson, who brought a whole string of decent French horses across the pond and placed them with David Pipe. They were all running in high-profile races at Aintree and regional National races and were mainly all taking a few runs to get fit and acclimatise to UK fences.
El Paso Wood was no exception, he had won six races in France and certainly has an engine, but he fell going around the Aintree National fences and then got stuck in the mud on his next two starts.
On his fourth run off a mark of 114, he ran on the goodish ground for the first time in his career over 3m 2F and dotted up on the bridle by an impressive 34 lengths. This screamed like a big staying National was well within his grasp and I think he has been campaigning to target a National win ever since.
He ran in the Midlands National two weeks ago, off a mark of 133 (was 4lb out of the handicap that day) on soft ground, he travelled sweetly and took the running up half a mile out, only to fade in the last two furlongs to finish a creditable 4th.
Today’s trip is bang on 4 miles so is 2.5F shorter than at Uttoxeter and crucially the ground is ideally good/soft. He also gets to run off his proper mark of 127, so is 6lb lower and can utilise his regular jockey’s 7lb allowance.
At 33/1 with Sky, Betfred, and 40/1 with Bet365, who all go 7 places he must have a cracking chance and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 20/1.
Via Dolorosa – 33/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor – 6 Places
The 10-year-old Via Dolorosa is also owned by Judith Wilson and trained by David Pipe, on his UK and seasonal debut in November 2021 he ran over the Aintree National fences, finishing 4th in the Grand Sefton over 2m 5F off a mark of 132.
He was then hampered and unseated his rider when stepping up to 3m 3F over the Aintree fences, which was then followed by a couple of poor runs, which were caused by a breathing issue.
After a wind operation, he has bounced back with two commanding wins off marks of 120 and 127 and runs here off a fair-looking 137. His previous strong French form backs up this argument and the better ground here really suits the horse.
David Pipe’s No 1 jockey, Tom Scudamore, has chosen to ride Via Dolorosa, and his big race experience could well be a telling factor.
Via Dolorosa can also be backed at 33/1 and I’m recommending another 1 point each way play with 6 places on offer from Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, and BetVictor.
He is still value at 16/1.
Jan Maat – 3.20 Newbury – 2 Mile Handicap Chase – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred – 3 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
This 7-runner handicap chase has a great betting angle as Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred have decided to offer three places instead of the usual two.
This opens the door for a rock-solid each-way play on Jan Maat, who was originally trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead and owned by Gigginstown Stud.
Jan Maat is still only 9 years old and ran in many of the top 2-mile handicap chases, including at Cheltenham Festival, Galway Festival, Dublin Festival, and Punchestown.
He never managed to win at these big meets but was competitive off Irish marks in the mid-130s, which equates to around 140 in the UK.
The key with him is good ground, anything slower and he just doesn’t run his race.
When he moved to Neil King at the start of this season, he looked to be campaigned to get a few pounds off his back. Running on winter ground, over a too longer trip, and leaving off the headgear.
This has seen his UK drop to an attractive-looking 120, and today he drops back to his optimum 2-mile trip, gets his ground for the first and the blinkers are back on.
He probably hasn’t won as many races as he should have done, so the fact we can get 3 places in a 7 runner race means we only have to beat 4 horses to grab a nice place. However I think he is well capable of winning this, so I expect a bold bid from him.
The 25/1 is huge and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 12/1.
Finniston Field – 7.30 Wolverhampton – 50/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Parimatch – 2 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
For a six-runner race this looks like a good race with Clap Your Hands and Chase The Dollar winning last time out, and course and distance winners Midrarr, Three Platoon, and Winklevi likely to enjoy the conditions.
Despite this, I still prefer the chances of the outsider, Finniston Field, who has for some strange reason been discounted by the market.
Sophie Leech trains, and for some reason the Bookmakers seem quick to price her horses up at large prices. I don’t mind this as she consistently wins with long-priced horses at big meetings such as Cheltenham, and she is worth following in handicaps.
Sophie has also been very successful in sending her string over to France where her reputation continues to grow.
To me, Finniston Field has an obvious good chance. He was previously trained by Tom Dascombe, and postmarked a peak of 103, winning off marks as high as 95.
He was sold on as a four-year-old, and Sophie had a good season with him, taking him over to France where he ran multiple times to postmarks of 89, 91, 91, and 92.
Unfortunately, Finniston Field suffered an injury that kept him off the track for 525 days, and he only returned to action this February, where he had a nice pipe-opener at Lingfield where he blatantly blew up, postmarking 61, before heading over to Deauville in France to run an improved effort to finish a fair 5th, postmarking 80.
Now to me, that’s nice fitness progression after 525 days off, a 61 postmark followed by 80, from a horse that was consistently postmarking 89 to 92. In my eyes, he is likely to improve again and run to say 85 to 89.
The handicapper has been very generous to Finniston Field dropping him to a mark of 77, and with the good claimer George Rooke taking off a handy 3lb he technically runs off a net mark of just 74. Well if he runs to 80, the same mark as his last run that puts him well in with a chance, but if he runs to 85-89, then he should win or go very close.
Consequently, he looks like an incredible bet at 50/1!!!
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Dancing Jo – 5.20 Lingfield – 1 Mile Handicap – 66/1 Bet365, Coral, Betfred – 4 Places – 1 point Each Way.
Geoffrey Deacon doesn’t have a prolific strike rate, but during any given season he always gets massive-priced winners.
In Dancing Jo we have a 66/1 shot that’s looks well over priced.
Dancing Jo was originally trained by Mick Channon, who persevered with her and managed to get 2 wins from 37 starts. Not exactly a great strike rate, but all the same she did win two (and place 10 times), and both of those were on the all-weather, including over today’s course and distance. That was off marks of 65 and 56, and today she runs off the basement mark of just 46, with a 5lb claimer netting that down to just 41.
When you look closely at her form, she really does look like an all-weather specialist with her favourite surface being Polytrack. Considering her overall record is a respectable 38 runs, 2 wins, and 10 places. When you focus on her Polytrack runs her record improves to 17 runs, two wins, and 6 places.
Knowing this Polytrack preference, it then looks like a strange move by Mick Channon to campaign her last year with three runs on all-weather, (where she placed 3rd of 10 twice, postmarking 53 and 57), but then ran her remaining 5 starts on turf where she was unplaced in all efforts.
Dancing Jo moved to Geoffrey Deacon this season, and it was no surprise to see her well beaten on her recent seasonal reappearance. This wasn’t helped by her getting upset in the stall and unshipping her inexperienced 7lb claimer.
She will strip fitter for that run, and whilst I would ideally like her to have one more run to get her fitness and condition in place, now she pitches up on a Polytrack surface for the first time in a year and six starts.
If she can replicate either of her two latest Polytrack postmarks of 53 or 57, then running off a net 41 gives her a huge chance of winning.
She likes to race prominently, so has an ideal draw in stall 3 to get her preferred track position.
We can back Dancing Jo at 66/1 with Bet365, Coral, and Betfred, which is huge for her chances, especially when we can get 4 places in this 12 runner field.
She is still excellent value at 22/1.
Castleton – 4.45 Ayr – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 (best priced 33/1) – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
It’s Scottish National day and this two-day Ayr meeting is always well attended, especially by local Scottish trainers/owners.
This is a Hands and Heels conditional jockey race, which means they are inexperienced jockeys who are not allowed to whip the horse. This makes it a specialist race as many horses need to be strongly handed and whipped to find most to win a race.
What you need is a free going horse, that naturally finds for the jockey, and in Castleton, we know he acts well under these conditions as he won this race in 2019, came second in 2018, and 5th in 2021 where he was hampered on the inside and didn’t get a run .(no race in 2020).
Connections clearly target the race with him, and it’s interesting that the Scottish owners have decided to change stables, going to the very good Lucinda Russell. This change of scenery just might do the trick with him, and he has been kept fresh to give a good crack at a repeat win.
He runs off a mark of 98, which gives him every chance and we can back him at a whopping 28/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral, with Bet365 going a best-priced 33/1 – 4 places.
The Gordon Elliot horse, Platinum Card, goes off a worthy short-priced favourite after winning yesterday, but winning on consecutive days isn’t easy, and with a conditional rider replacing a pro-jockey on an inexperienced jumper is worth taking on.
I recommend 1 point each way at 28/1, he sis still value at 14/1.
