See my four picks below for Monday:
Lapilli – 4.05 Naas – 6F Handicap – 100/1 Boyles – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 8 year old Lapilli is a fascinating runner in this 24 runner sprint.
He was originally trained in the UK by William Haggis and achieved a decent level winning three races and postmarking a high of 89 over sprint trips. The lady jockey Georgia Cox won twice on him before he was sold on to Irish connections.
Lapilli has won a further two races in Ireland but has been affected by burst blood vessels and has regressed down to a basement mark of 43.
He missed virtually all of the 2020 season and has been nursed back to health and fitness this year and shown glimpses of form which suggest the fire is still burning bright. The big issue with horses that burst blood vessels are that jockey’s don’t always want to be aggressive with the horse and ask too much of them.
This has been very apparent by the way he has been gently ridden. Generally being slowly away and allowed to find his feet and running through fields into never nearer finishes.
I like him today as a lady jockey, Nikita Kane, takes the ride and she has run two good races from two starts on him. I think Lapilli enjoys the way she rides as she gets the horse travelling well early and quite prominently. This has given the horse more chance to get involved at the finish and manged to postmark 57 over 6F, only losing by 1.5 lengths off a mark of 56.
Today Lapilli runs off 45 and will need to run to approximately 53 to win this. Considering the partnership ran previously to 57 this makes me feel they are well capable of producing sufficient form to win this. Indeed if Nikita rides him well, they could virtually win on the bridle!
It’s also a positive that Nikita’s won on Geological on 23 July 2021 as that horse is owned by the same connections as Lapilli. So they have already trusted Nikita to win for them.
Lapilli ran respectably last time over 5F where he made good late headway and a return to 6F is exactly what he needs.
It all points to a fair opportunity for Lapilli to be in the mix and at 100/1 with Boylesports, who offer 5 places we must get involved.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
Lapilli is still value at 33/1.
Miss Victrix – 3.20 Cork – 2m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 Boyles – 5 places – 1 Point Each Way.
Miss Victrix is a 6 year old mare who has only run 5 times. She is based with the small Irish trainer, Roger Joseph McGrath, who has a fair 7% win percentage. He also has a remarkable 33% place record over the last 5 years (46 win/places from 139 rides) which is a really big positive considering Miss Victrix’s 50/1 price!
Funnily enough Miss Victrix is rather letting his stats down as she has yet to place in any of her 5 starts! However I feel it will change today!
I’ve watched all of Miss Victrix’s runs and she has been green and backward in her novice hurdles and was in desperate need of jumping experience (with a tendency to jump out to here right). She was also keen in her races, so a hood was applied, and was dropped out the back of the field to help her settle.
After only postmarking a high of 73 in her maidens the handicapper started her off 85 on debut handicap. Unfortunately she fell at the first, so her latest run was effectively her handicap debut run.
For me she ran a cracker, having a good experience, as she was held up in last place well off the pace, settling and jumped well enough, albeit out to the right. Before staying on far too late (under cosy handling) only losing by 14 lengths.
She officially postmarked 86, but that can be marked up considerably as the 7lb claimer jockey (son of the trainer) never put her in the race and didn’t ride her early enough to get involved.
I really like Miss Victrix’s chances today as her jumping will significantly improve for going round the right handed Cork track. The Trainer has made a significant jockey change bringing in 5lb claimer Liam Quinlan who has been used for the last two stable victories.
Miss Victrix has been dropped a handy 2lb down to 83 and with a more competent positive ride from Liam I am expecting a big run. The 2m 3F also looks ideal.
We can currently get 50/1 odds with Boylesports, who also offer 5 places and best odds guaranteed, so I’m recommending 1 point each way.
He is still looks value at 20/1.
Breckland – 1.30 Kempton – 1 Mile Handicap – 25/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
The 3 year old Breckland went in my tracker last season when he absolutely bolted up at Kempton over 7F.
He led the field that day and when he hit the Kempton home straight, he quickened impressively, off a mark of 61, winning by 7 lengths.
I put him down as a potential Kempton specialist as I’ve seen this quickening quality before in numerous Class 3 to Class 6 horses.
Breckland didn’t go on from that win, being far too free in his races and disappointing on his last three starts.
It was no surprise to see Breckland being subsequently gelded, and he now makes his seasonal debut over 1 mile. It’s a good sign that Trainer, Michael Appleby has a higher 13% strike rate with first time gelded horses than his standard 11% win rate.
Breckland may need the run today, but connections have retained the hood and brought him back to Kempton. He was originally put up 14lb for that impressive win, so the fact he gets in here off just 69, with good claimer Theodore Ladd taking another 3lb off means he is only running off 5lb higher mark.
As a front runner, stall 1 also looks perfect for him.
The 1 mile trip looks well within his compass based upon his breeding and considering we can get 25/1 with Bet365 (3 places) he is well worth risking first time out.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 12/1.
Under Your Breath – 2.18 Newcastle – 7F Handicap – 33/1 Boylesports – 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 4 year old filly, Under Your Breath, is still lightly raced having just the 6 starts and has only shown modest form to date postmarking a high of just 47.
She ran three times in maidens around a 1m 2F trip and it was when she ran at Wolverhampton on it’s tapeta surface that she showed her best form.
Under Your Breath must either have been backward, or suffered problems as she only made her debut as a three year old and ran just the once. Her latest 5 runs have all been between May and July this season, so her fitness, wellbeing and racecourse experience is beginning to build in the right direction.
I have watched all her races and I’m not convinced she wants the 1m 2F trip. Her grandmother raced over 1m 2F to 1m4F, but her mum won over 7F at Wolverhampton and her sire was also a sprinter/7F horse.
I therefore think it’s a really positive move that connections bring her back in trip and send her to Newcastle which has the same tapeta surface as Wolverhampton.
It looks to me they are trying to emulate Under Your Breath’s mums win over 7f on tapeta. Interestingly she was also held up over 1m 2F trips in her maidens and was then brought back to win her 7F handicap where she raced prominently and stayed on strongly to win.
So far Under Your Breath has also been held up out the back in each race and I’m really hoping they are much more aggressive with her today.
She has to run off 46 today but is only rated 44, however connections are negating this 2lb by deploying Oisin Sweeney who claims 7lb. This nets Under Your Breaths rating down to 39 and gives her a good chance at the weights.
At 33/1 with Boylesports who also offer 4 places and BOG in this 14 runner race she looks like a worthwhile bet, and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
She still looks value at 25/1.
