Hi,
Please see my three tips for Tuesday:
Zanza – 1.55 Exeter – Haldon Cup – 2m 2F Chase – 14/1 Bet365 – 1.5 Points Each Way.
For those of you who have been with me a long while you will know Zanza was my handicap pick for the whole of the Cheltenham Festival in the Grand Annual. Please read my two previous write ups on Zanza for more information.
Zanza was backed into almost favourite at Cheltenham and was cruelling brought down when making his move half a mile out.
He then went to Aintree and was staying on strongly from the rear when getting hampered at the last and almost falling which cost him any chance of victory.
I’m sure Zanza will be running in Grade 1’s later on in his career and to be able to back him in a handicap off 148 makes him look a good proposition. Especially in this 7 runner event at 14/1!
I have noticed Zanza does jump slightly to his right and all his runs last year were going left handed, so today’s Exeter track should help get the most out of his jumping and give him an excellent chance.
Zana prefers goodish ground, so the good to soft going should be ideal. There is 4mm of rain due later today, but its forecast to be dry tomorrow so the going should remain unaltered.
Fingers crossed Zanza can finally get a bit of luck in this smaller field, and he rates a good bet at 14/1 with Bet365.
I therefore recommend 1.5 points each way.
Zanza is still value at 8/1.
Previous TWO write ups:
Zanza – 4.40 Aintree – 2 mile Handicap Chase – 12/1 Bet365/PP/BFSbook – 3 point max win.
Zanza was my big Antepost Cheltenham Festival handicap pick, but we were cruelly denied when he was making headway on the second circuit only for him to be brought down half a mile out.
The sickening aspect was that his form line with Sky Pirate, where he was 18lb well in, was franked by Sky Pirate who went off to win the Grand Annual (and Ibleo in 3rd).
Please read my previous write up below that highlights just how well handicapped he is.
After that disappointment I was hoping Zanza would turn up here on a nice flat track that won’t test his jumping quite like Cheltenham can. The handicapper hasn’t been able to amend his mark and off 145 he is surely the best handicapped horse in the field.
He loves faster ground, so I’m hoping the combination of watering and the odd forecast shower forecast doesn’t turn the good/soft, good in places any worse than good/soft. I’m sure if more rain comes than forecast Philip Hobbs will pull him out.
We can therefore get stuck in and I’m recommending a MAX 3 point straight win on Zanza at 12/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair sports book and Bet365.
Previous Write Up:
Zanza – Grand Annual Chase 2M Handicap Chase – (Wednesday) – 14/1 Sporting Index – 1.5 points each way.
Well, I’m so sorry to subscribers that I waited an extra day to put up my first antepost bet in the Cheltenham Festival handicaps as the 22/1 I advised yesterday has unfortunately gone and he is best priced 14/1 (I’m sick!).
The horse in question is Zanza, and annoyingly the legendary Racing Post tipster, Tom Segal, commonly known as Pricewise has tipped up Zanza in Thursday’s Racing Post. This has caused the price to collapse.
Zanza is seven years old and has been progressing nicely over the past two seasons. Last year he won a handicap hurdle off 136 and then ran in the three most prestigious and hotly contested handicap hurdles in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham, The Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot, and Betfair hurdle at Newbury. He acquitted himself well at a time when he was still very green and pulling hard in his races and that experience will have done him the world of good to face the challenge of a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
This season he has gone novice chasing and progressed with every run. On his second start he finished an eye catching 12 length second to Allmankind (who is 3rd favourite for the Arkle) and could easily have finished closer if ridden out properly, but it was good experience. He followed this up with an impressive win at Newbury in a handicap off 136 where he won going away by 5 lengths.
His latest run was at Cheltenham in a really strong run race where he was travelling supremely well tracking the leaders before falling 3 out. You can never be sure how he would have finished but he was full of running and looked sure to be involved at the finish.
The winner of that race was Sky Pirate, who ran off 134, and has gone on to win again and is now rated 152. Sky Pirate is 8/1 favourite for the Grand Annual. The second was Ibleo who ran off 137 and has subsequently won twice and is now rated 154, he is 16/1 for the Grand Annual.
Zanza is running off the same mark so will be getting an 18lb & 17lb pull at the weights with these two market principles.
The icing on the cake is the ground. When he ran against Sky Pirate and Ibleo it was soft, but Zanza is a top of the ground horse, which makes his Cheltenham run even more impressive. Indeed Phillip Hobbs has already said that Zanza won’t run in the Grand Annual if the ground is soft.
It now looks like the long range forecast is for dry weather at the Cheltenham Festival and the going on the Wednesday is very likely to be good/soft. Consequently, it’s highly probable he will have his perfect conditions.
You should note that Zanza is entered for a race at Doncaster this Saturday (and should be backed, if he runs!!), if he wins, he will only receive a maximum 5lb penalty and with the ground looking like being on the fast side I think Phillip Hobbs will run to get some more experience into Zanza.
If he wins, he will probably go off favourite for the Grand Annual. If he runs at Doncaster and flops, then he will probably miss Cheltenham.
This is where the Non Runner No Bet angle comes into play. I am recommending you back him now, take this offer, and if he flops at the weekend and doesn’t run at Cheltenham, then you can claim your money back. If he wins, we have a great each way bet for one of the favourites at the Festival.
He looks a fantastic bet and I’m just sorry I didn’t advise you all when I backed him two weeks ago at 33/1!!! I will attach my betting slip to this email as proof!!!
I am recommending 1.5 points each way at 14/1 with Sporting Index – 5 places.
Sassoon – 1.10 Redcar – 1 Mile Seller – 25/1 Bet365 – 2 Point Win – Bet365
I put up Sassoon last season and he won for us at rewarding odds of 28/1.
Last year he had finished last in his previous run and was visored for the first time on his favoured soft ground and won well off a mark of 55. He went on to win again by 5 lengths off 63.
His form has been really poor this year, finishing last 4 times, but then Sassoon is one of those in and out performers. You have to accept the risk that Sassoon may well come last again, but when he is on a going day, he is decent.
This is a seller, and the favourite is rated 64, so with Sassoon only rated 54 he looks poorly treated, but on his decisive win last year he still looks capable of upsetting the favourite. That’s if he can bounce back to form.
I like him today as he is wearing the visor for the first time this season (replaces cheekpieces) and it’s definitely the visor that sparks up Sassoon.
With Andrew Mullen, who won on him for us last season, coming back on for the first time this season and on his much needed soft ground he has a chance
Because of Sassoon’s in and out profile I am recommending a 2 point straight win only with Bet365.
Shifting Gold – 4.05 Lingfield – 1m 5F Handicap – 40/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This amateurs race has a wide open feel about it with most finding it hard to win.
Most don’t have Lingfield form but there is one stand out Lingfield performer and that’s Shifting Gold who surprisingly is the 40/1 outsider of the field.
She won decisively by 3.5 lengths at Lingfield off a mark of 60 and has consistently run her best races at the track.
Shifting Gold changed stables in early 2021 and ran 5 mediocre races for Julia Fielden, but none of these were at Lingfield. She was then sold on to the small trainer, Ken Wingrove, who looks to have bought the horse for his 7lb claimer daughter, Jodie Wingrove, to ride.
Jodie looks a good jockey as she has only run 4 races under rules and already finished 2nd and 3rd, so I’m happy she has enough talent to win today.
Jodie rode Shifting Gold on her first race for the yard 15 days ago and they were not disgraced over 1m 3F. Racing off the pace before staying on to finish a never nearer 7th of 13. Jodie could have finished closer, but this looked very much like a get to know you ride and pipe opener for the horse.
Today they return to Shifting Gold’s favourite track and step up to a very suitable trip of 1m 5F. Shifting Gold runs off a mark of just 51 and if you take into consideration Jodie’s 7lb claim this nets down to just 44. Considering last year she won off a mark of 66 she is looking dangerously well handicapped.
We can back Shifting Gold at 40/1 with Skybet who offer 4 places in this 10 runner event and that looks incredible value.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 16/1.
