Hi
Please see my two tips for Saturday:
Willywampus – 4.55 Killarney – 1m 3F Handicap – 22/1 Skybet 4 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 4 year old Willywampus is yet to win a race after 13 runs, but those runs include 3 maidens on the flat and 4 novice hurdles where he has just been trying to gain experience.
He has had limited opportunities in handicaps which include two runs on the flat this year where his seasonal debut was over 1m 4F (looked in need of the outing) and his second and latest run was back over 1m where he was outpaced and never in it. These were both on fast ground.
On breeding Willywampus should prefer 1m 2F to 1m 4F and that very much looks the case on his performances to date so today’s 1m 3F should be ideal.
Willywampus looks an in and out performer and so far, he has been looking very out of form, but I think it’s the ground that’s been the problem as all his best runs have been on soft ground which he hasn’t encountered for some time. This makes sense as he is sired by Medicean who loved soft ground.
That changes today as the going is already yielding to soft and with 10mm of rain due overnight it’s going to ride soft which will be very much in his favour.
His best form is also on left handed tracks, so Killarney will suit and from stall 3 he should get good track position.
Willywampus looks on a good mark and I like the booking of Seamie Heffernan who won for the Trainer at long odds last year.
At odds of 22/1 with Skybet who offer 4 places, I like the chances of Willywampus and recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 16/1.
Tathmeen – 7.00 Wolverhampton – 6F Handicap – 25/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Tathmeen is only 6 years old but has run 64 times and been a prolific winner of 9 races plus placing a further 13 times. He has won off marks as high as 77 in Class 3, 4 and 5 handicaps.
He is an admirably consistent horse who has been rated around the mid 70’s all season but has been as high as 85.
The handicapper had dropped him to 72, but he has to run off 75 today, so is technically 3lb out of the handicap and the market has reacted by making him a 25/1 outsider.
I certainly don’t see running off 75 as an issue. Nor competing in a class 3 handicap as he has won a Class 3 handicap off 75 in February 2020.
What just might make the difference for Tathmeen is a change in headgear. He improved slightly for the application of cheekpieces and with these being replaced by a visor today this could easily give him a small boost that helps get his head in front, or at least gain us a place.
We know conditions are right today as he loves Wolverhampton with 3 wins and 4 places from 16 starts, and he has his favourite jockey Cam Hardie on board who has won on him 6 times.
There should be a good pace and coming from stall 1 he can drop in on the rail and make his move in the home straight.
At 25/1 with Bet365 he looks over priced so I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 16/1.
