Hi,
Please see my two tips for Thursday:
Dancing Doll – 6.15 Clonmel – 1m 1.5F Handicap – 66/1 Betfair – 5 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The 8 year old mare Dancing Doll won a maiden race over 1m 4F postmarking 70 and has generally run over 1m 1F to 1m4F through her career. She has postmarked a high of 76, with plenty of other solid 70+ runs on good ground over 1m 1F to 1m 3F.
I put her up last year at 33/1 when she had a first time tongue tie applied and was unlucky not to win. After getting upset in the stalls and rearing (first time ever) losing 5 lengths only to run on well over today’s trip of 1m 1.5F to finish 5th only going down by 1.25 lengths. That was off a mark of 58. Today she races off just 45.
She went novice hurdling over last winter running three times without showing any major form and only returned to action in June this year. She has now run three times on the flat, including only three days ago, and she has clearly needed the runs. Tailing off in her first and improving slightly in her second over an inadequate mile.
On her last start she finished 12th of 13, but this was a pretty fair run considering it was over 7.5F, a trip which is simply too short for her. She took a keen hold near the leaders and ran with the choke out for the first half mile and was still in with a chance 2F before getting outpaced and gradually fading only, losing by 7 lengths.
This showed me she is now starting to get fit and run into form, especially considering connections had removed her regular tongue tie.
I like that she runs here quickly after just 3 days, they re-apply her tongue and step her back up to a much more suitable 1m 1.5F trip (especially on this stiff course).
She has a great draw in stall 3 and runs here off just 45 with a good jockey in Philip Enright in the saddle.
The green shoots of form were there to be seen last time and when mares start to blossom it’s always a good idea to bring them out quickly.
There are no last time out or progressive horses in the field and the race is ripe for an outsider to collect and with Dancing Doll being 66/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, who offer 5 places, we have to get involved and I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
She is still value at 25/1.
Supreme Steel – 3.25 Sedgefield – 3m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 80/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
The 10 year old Supreme Steel is a winner of two races over 3m hurdles on good ground and was rated 124 in his prime.
He was injured in 2018 and needed a year and a half off, followed by another years break shortly after. He was sent to a small point to point trainer to recuperate and has been slowly nursed back to health.
He showed a bit of form in the point to point fields but is really only a hurdler and not a natural over the bigger chases. The fact he has only raced 7 times over chases and 29 over hurdles bears this out.
This season he has been sold on and is trained by Mike Sowersby who specialises in bring back old injured horses. He doesn’t have a good strike rate but is a good source of big priced winners when he gets these injured back to good health.
Supreme Steel has run 4 times for him, starting off a mark of 93 in a hurdle race where he ran OK postmarking 78.
He did try him twice over fences, but that didn’t go well as he wasn’t fluent enough and fell on his second attempt.
On his latest start he showed his first glimpse of form finishing a 13 length 5th of 15 over chases where he postmarked 80.
They revert Supreme Steel back over hurdles, and I really like this move. He will surely improve for the switch and now his fitness and wellbeing is in place he could really excel off a tumbling mark. It’s only 4 hurdle runs ago that he raced off 123, and two of those subsequent runs he had no chance as it was after his year and a half off, plus his third was this year on his seasonal opener.
He races here, 9lb out of the handicap off 83, which is still a cracking mark plus he has the benefit of Aaron Anderson (who I rate) and claims a valuable 7lb which nets todays mark down to 76. This must give him a chance!
He is just too tempting at 80/1 with Bet365 (2 places in this 7 runner race) and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 33/1.
