Hi,
Please see my two tips for Thursday:
Baby Bellini – 2.55 Thurles – 2m Handicap Hurdle – 100/1 Boyles – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
Baby Bellini has been in my tracker for a year now, as I felt he a win him when he was brought back to a 2 mile trip. At the time I thought this would be over chases as he had travelled well into a 2m 4F chase race and was looking dangerous until falling and I felt his stamina was questionable.
Since then he has only had the one chase race and blundered his way round, so his confidence is clearly shot over the big obstacles.
He has mixed up a few runs on the flat as well as hurdles and showed a few hints of form in the summer. However his trainer, who is not the greatest, keeps running Baby Bellini over to 2m 4F to 2m 6F (last three hurdle runs) and has been fading out of contention.
I’m really glad to see Baby Bellini finally get dropped back to 2 miles, which is the trip he won off in 2018 and he runs today off the same mark.
Baby Bellini likes a right handed undulating track, so Thurles should suit and with 5lb claimer Jack Foley jocked up we know he will be given a strong competitive ride.
Because of the Trainers terrible record we can back him at huge odds of 100/1 and again there is a strong chance that he drift further so I’m recommending 1 point each way with Boyles who go best odds guaranteed and 5 places.
He is still value at 33/1.
Pistol – 4.50 Carlisle – 2m 4F Handicap Hurdle – 50/1 William Hill – 4 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I am putting up the old boy Pistol, who is 12 years young.
Pistol has won 5 races, including three at today’s Carlisle track off marks as high as 120.
He has been running fewer races each year and has regressed with age, but he loves racing at Carlisle.
Pistol shows he still retains a level of ability when finishing 3rd of 11 at Carlisle in November 2020 off a mark of 86 (postmarked 83) only losing by 6 lengths.
Since then he has only raced three times in the spring a mid summer where he ran ok at Carlisle but was down the field on his last two starts when running at Hexham and Cartmel.
Today he returns to his beloved Carlisle off a break of 138 days which is ideal for the horse. Back in 2019 he used a similar gap between his races when he finished 3rd in this race off a mark of 97 and I want to back him today as he runs off a 19lb lower mark of 78.
All his recent wins have been on heavy and the ground being good has made the market overreact in a negative way. But what they seem to forget is back in the day he ran on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute and postmarked a highly respectable 82 on good to firm. So he can cope with a fast surface.
We can back Pistol at 66/1 with William Hill and I’m recommending 1 point each way.
Pistol is still value at 20/1.