Hi
Please see my first tip for Tuesday’s action:
Toad – 3.55 Market Rasen – 3 Mile Handicap Chase – 100/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook – 1 point Each Way.
The 9-year-old Toad looks an intriguing runner in this low-grade handicap chase.
He must have been difficult to train as he was originally with Gary Moore but didn’t see the race track and was sold on for just 800 guineas. I’m guessing he did a tendon.
Georgie Howell purchased him and eventually managed to get him to the track as a 6-year-old, where he ran promisingly enough, postmarking a high off 100 in a 2-mile novice hurdle.
He was injured on his third hurdle outing and was pulled up after the third hurdle and did not see the race track for two years until he returned recently on his handicap debut where he went straight to chasing over 2 miles.
That was a good first run back as he travelled well and jumped soundly but was outpaced and just tired in the last half mile and was not given a hard time.
It’s eye-catching that he goes up to 3 miles today, especially when you realise that he related to Grand National winner Rule the World, so a stamina test is just what he needs.
Running off 99 is a fair enough mark considering he gained this over an inadequate 2 miles.
He may well need another run to gain his full fitness and conditioning, but now he goes up to a more suitable trip we have to take a chance as he is very likely to run a big race at this trip, especially considering how well he jumped.
His best run was on soft, and his breeding suggests the heavy ground will be ideal for him.#
I’m excited that we can back him at a 100/1 and I’m recommending a 1.5 point each way play
He is still value at 20/1.
Kasakh Noir – 3.50 Navan – 2m 5F Handicap – 40/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 – BOG – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
Kasakh Noir has rather fallen from grace over the past few years, having been a promising 4 year who won a couple of races for Dan Skelton and went on to finish 6th in the Fred Winter handicap hurdle at Cheltenham festival off a lofty mark of 137.
He was sold on in October 2019 and trained by JJ Lambe, who is has a terribly low strike rate and it was no surprise to see his rating plummet over the next 18 months. He did show some form when cheekpieces were applied and managed a second place off 100 at Navan over 2 miles.
Kasakh Noir has subsequently moved to Noel C Kelly, who has a marginally better strike rate, but it’s nothing to get excited about.
He has run four times for the new yard, with the headgear removed, and has had a mini-break having last run in November 2021. I had put him in the tracker to back him when he returned to 2 miles, ideally with cheekpieces applied on soft/heavy ground.
So, I’m breaking my own notes, as he runs over 2m 5f, a trip he hasn’t won off, but he does have the cheekpieces reapplied and is back at Navan where he ran so well, with a nice jockey booking of Simon Torrens who was the leading apprentice two years ago.
He might need the run, and return to 2 miles before he wins, but off just 87 he could easily bolt up here with conditions to suit and the headgear back on.
At 40/1, best odds guaranteed with Bet365, Ladbrokes, and Coral who all offer 5 places, I’m prepared to take a chance, so I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 20/1.
Novus Aditus – 1.20 Taunton – 2m 3F Handicap Hurdle – 66/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – 1 Point Each Way.
Novus Aditus is a well-bred flat horse by a New Approach mare, sired by Teofilo. He is a classic Jim Bolger bred horse with a middle-distance pedigree.
He only ran once in Ireland before being sold on to Nigel Hawke, who knows the family well as he bought and raced Novus Aditus’s full brother Theocrate to win twice over hurdles, including at Taunton.
Novus Aditus ran in maiden hurdles and posted a career-best when postmarking 106 at Taunton. I watched this race and I’m amazed the jockey wasn’t pulled in for non-trying as he was cosily ridden out the back and stayed on well without any assistance from the saddle to finish a fair fifth.
Unfortunately, he suffered an injury and was off the track for two years. He returned this season and has run well twice. Both these runs look to have been needed and he was held up last and was allowed to run through the field to finish in midfield.
I really wouldn’t be surprised if a change of tactics is used today and we see Novus Aditus go from the front (or prominent), as this was how they won with his full brother on his handicap debut at Taunton.
He does look nicely handicapped off 94 and with those two runs under his belt, his fitness is in place, and with the 2m 3f looking an ideal trip on a track he likes (and full brother) I can see a huge run from him.
He is trading at 66/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook and I recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 20/1.
